After Hell Nino, glad tidings beckon for farmers
Mbongeni Mguni | Friday July 22, 2016 13:16
Through the fire
In December 2015, a Mmegi newscrew dispatched to the Kweneng and South-East districts met with the victims of El Niño, farmers and families hardest hit by a cruel cyclical climate phenomenon associated with heatwaves and poor rains in Botswana.
Village by village, farmers looked to the skies and revealed how they had given up on the season, packed away their equipment and not bothered with government input schemes, as they suffered yet another heatwave.
Many of the farmers had hoped against hope in 2014, planting crops such as cereals and legumes, only to see their fields razed by the first El Niño event. In 2015, many had learnt their lesson and put their hopes in social safety nets such as Ipelegeng and the drought relief measures announced by President Ian Khama in June of that year.
The second El Niño, in 2015, was forecast to be even stronger than the first and it was, bringing the driest rain season to Botswana in 34 years, punctuated by six heatwaves and at least 10 deaths caused by the record temperatures.
A post-harvest UN report released in May 2016 estimated that at least 50,000 Batswana in rural areas were in urgent need of food relief, while the Botswana Millers Association and Botswana Agricultural Marketing Board warned of increases of up to 30% in prices of maize meal and beef.
A season of glad tidings
Reports released in the last few weeks point to a change in the air and the high possibility that the pain of the last 24 months has come to an end.
According to climatologists, El Niño is dissipating and giving way to its much-preferred relative, La Niña, a climate phenomenon which in Botswana is associated with above-average rainfall. El Niño (Spanish for ‘the boy’) and La Niña (‘the girl’) are coupled ocean atmosphere cyclical phenomena, which cause global changes of temperatures and rainfall.
“Early June Climate Prediction Centre forecasts indicate that a La Niña event is likely to develop during the start of the 2016-2017 agricultural season,” reads an update from the Famine Early Warning Network.
“In the Southern Africa region, a La Niña event tends to be associated with above-average rainfall. However, initial model forecasts suggest that precipitation will be near average for October to December.
“The Network is assuming a normal start to the 2016-2017 cropping season across the region.
“A normal start to agricultural activities, including land preparation and planting, should improve labour opportunities and income levels for households.”
SADC climatologists are also projecting an abundantly wet rain season for the region.
“There is an above 70% chance of a La Niña phenomenon by late 2016. This may help reduce water deficits, as well as potentially improve recovery of the agricultural sector,” the regional organisation said in a recent statement.
The United Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, meanwhile, has said, “there is a strong chance” of a La Niña event in the third or fourth quarter of 2016.
Gaborone Dam reawakens
The predictions for La Niña this rain season line up with a local expert’s own studies into the patterns of rainfall, particularly the supply and levels of Gaborone Dam, over the years.
According to a study produced by Boikobo Paya – a former director of Water Affairs and former Minerals Energy and Water Resources permanent secretary – levels at Gaborone Dam over the years, have roughly echoed the El Niño, La Niña cycles.
The data indicates that since 2001, Gaborone Dam reaches peaks every five to six years and lows in similar periods. The dam’s peaks in the last 15 years occurred in December 2001 (100%), April 2006 (+80%) and April 2011 (+-90%). The dam’s lowest points over the same period occurred in December 2005 (15%), December 2010 (35%) and total failure in December 2014.
Late season rains that occurred earlier this year, revived the dam from a 12-month death and pushed it up to a peak of 20% in March/April. With the recovery and low winter evaporation, experts believe La Niña could push Gaborone Dam to peak by April 2017, six years after its last peak in April 2011.
The forecasts have ignited debate on whether the Water Utilities Corporation should pump water from the meagre levels at Gaborone Dam, or keep depending on dams in the North, while allowing Gaborone Dam to await the rainy season.
The WUC, however, has a different view. “Operationally, abstraction from the Gaborone Dam can be done when the dam is five percent and above,” the corporation stated.
“It is also prudent to use the water since, if left unused it will be lost to evaporation.
“The dam loses a third of its water to evaporation. By using the available surface water, we also prolong the life of our groundwater for use once surface water sources have dried up.” According to WUC data, Gaborone Dam revived on March 14, 2016 rising to 2.4 percent and within 10 days, had recovered to 19.1%. Thereafter pumping began after turbidity (cloudiness of water) improved. At the last count, on June 29, Gaborone Dam was at 16.7% representing eight months of supply without additional inflow.
La Niña and the budget
The change in fortunes brought on by La Niña will also be a blessing to the national coffers, which directly pumped out P445 million in drought relief measures between June 2015 and June 2016.
Government has also had to absorb higher numbers on social safety nets such as Ipelegeng and those relying on local authorities, while sectors such as health, education and sanitation have suffered from the successive droughts.
With Khama having declared another drought recently, an even higher figure will be required to support the most affected, given the deeper extent of the 2015 El Niño event.
Thus La Niña, when it arrives this rain season, will be music to the ears of hard-pressed farmers, consumers and government.