Brexit: What it means
Bame Piet | Friday July 22, 2016 12:46
It has been a month since the British voted on a referendum to exit the EU, a bloc that has been in existence since the early 1970s, established just 25 years after the end of World War II. The debate about Britain exiting the EU has dominated the country’s internal politics for half a decade.
The outcome was not what the majority of observers had expected, and the evidence of that was all over the post referendum atmosphere.
At the EU Parliament the mood was so tense, with tempers so high that the exchange between the EU MPs and their Britain colleagues was nothing short of insults and the middle finger. Below is the transcript of the Mmegi interview with Baum, the EU head of delegation.
What is Brexit and what are its implications?
It means there is a political demand from the public for the UK to exit the EU. It has no immediate repercussions. The Brexit is a process and we have to wait for the situation to calm down. It has no immediate decision by the government of the UK.
At the moment we have just the referendum, we have no formal decision of the British government, which also requires a decision by the Parliament to confirm that exit decision. Then the British government will have to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of the EU, and then negotiations will start, which will lead to the exit agreement.
But this agreement has provisions like any other international treaty and will be treated as such.
Negotiations will drag on probably, but if in two years there is no conclusion the UK will exit by default, which is the worst case scenario, as this will be an exit from the treaty without any provisions being in place.
Basically the bottom line is that Article 50 has not been invoked, so we do not have a Brexit as yet. The Brexit is at the end of this process and at the end of the negotiations.
What impact will Brexit have on EU’s international agreements?
That will depend a lot on the content of the exit agreement and future relations as between UK as an EU non-member state and the remaining EU member states. That is difficult to predict now. Of course we are all encouraged not to start talking about negotiations when there is not even an Article 50 invoked or speculating what the outcome will be.
Technically the UK would exit from the international agreements that the EU has concluded, but what the fall out of that is not clear because the exit agreement could make all kinds of provisions that associate the UK with existing agreements. They will exit, but at the same time relate with the agreements, just like there are other countries that are not in the EU, but have close relations with the union.
In principle I think the impact is probably overestimated at the moment, because everybody is kind of scared. There will not be any changes in existing agreements between EU and SADC, or the Africa region for now. Let us assume that the exit will effect in two years, and in the meantime there is an existing agreement that has been signed and ratified, then the agreement will stand.
What does it mean for the complex relationship between Scotland and UK?
The Scottish are very eager to stay in the EU and Northern Ireland also voted to stay. The voting behaviour was not uniform.
The parameters under which Scotland held a referendum to leave the UK have changed and maybe they may choose to go for another referendum or renew the discussion.
Worried about Northern Ireland’s fragile peace achieved recently after many years of unrest and de-facto civil war it is important that they maintain a uniform approach to the exit. But once again it is an internal matter of the UK, EU has never expressed itself on this.
Will Brexit weaken EU Institutions in any way?
It is obvious when a big member state is leaving and the circumstances under which this departure have been discussed is clearly not helpful.
It will weaken the credibility of the integration process, it has revealed some issues within the EU that have not been dealt with, and it does not make the union necessarily strong outside.
Although the UK is not the biggest economy within Europe, it is a very important partner in terms of security and military, pragmatism will most likely prevail and for UK to stay very close to the union.
There has been a lot of speculation about this because we do not know how all this will evolve, many people are saying the union will fall, but that is not the message coming from the EU council.
The situation in the UK is slightly different from other member states – it is unlikely that another country would exit. There could be one or two scenarios where public opinion is divided, but the continental population in Europe is more conscious about the benefits of the union.
Europe has gone through two world wars in the first half of the last century and the destruction was just simply unprecedented, it was not far away from total self-destruction.
I think the ideal of the EU goes back to the experience of these wars and that military capability has reached a point where conflicts could destroy everybody.
With that war experience, people can now see the importance of being together with principles of compromise, solidarity and collaboration.
Of course the EU or Brussels machinery has grown a bit distant. US, China, Brazil phenomenon and some people felt alienated and this was perceived as a democratic deficit, which was not fair. Governments were not doing enough to share information with their population on what they contributed.
What impact will Brexit have on NATO?
Not every member of the EU is a member of NATO and vise versa. The UK has been very important in military operations under the umbrella of EU, which are not many though. For instance, the UK played a very important role in maritime anti-piracy operations in Somalia, so we would have to see how such arrangements are reflected and settled for Brexit and future relations. For now, nothing changes and I don’t expect any big changes in the next two years although it is clear that this Brexit will happen.
What advice do you have for SADC?
SADC and the EU are really not the same elephants except that they are both labelled regional integration. The difference is that the level of integration of EU is not understood even by our own population, it is pretty far reach. We can say half of all the legislation is decided in Brussels and then transposed into national law. We have a single market and very integrated European economy.
It is not the same, SADC is miles away from where the EU is. The EU has a true transfer of sovereignty from national to EU level, which is not the case with SADC. We are not the United States of Europe, a federal body where each member state has sovereignty, or something in between. The SADC Secretariat has no executive powers, and in terms of integration we are far away. Regional integration is very important for maintaining peace and security, and other benefits.
Immigration was the main reason for Brexit. Where did the EU go wrong?
The whole campaign has been emotional and centred around the dissatisfaction, fears and worries of the people.
What is specific in the UK is the fact that they have about 3 million people from other EU members particularly from eastern European countries, and the UK has many attractions including the language.
Many people go there and study in the UK and learn the language and theirs is one of the leading international languages in the world.
There was resentment over a proportionally high number of other European member states in the UK whom of course contribute there, who have been in competition with the British labour and so there has been some resentment building up.
Those have the same rights in terms of social benefits, and it was perceived to be costly, but there could have been a solution or after an agreement was negotiated in the EU council that could have come into effect if the referendum had come positive. This was a special arrangement for the UK, although other countries are facing a challenge of migration.
*Baum says he is the first European generation that did not go to war and attributes that to the existence of the European Union. He says for the first time Europe has enjoyed over 60 years of peace.