Analysts Write BMD Obituary
Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Monday September 2, 2019 13:18
The BMD last week lost a case, in which it wanted the UDC to be barred from using its symbol.
Adding salt to injury by not reinstating BMD into the political bloc, the party’s wish to have Botswana Congress Party delegitimised, as a UDC member by the courts did not come true.
“As I always mentioned, the institutional wellbeing of the UDC was hinged on the pronouncements to be made by the courts of law,” observes Keaoleboga Dipogiso, political science lecturer at the University of Botswana.
“A triumph in that regard validates the strategy by the UDC leadership and enhances public confidence in them. Remember, there has been anxiety over the possible outcome, which basically emanated from the fact that the UDC didn’t have control over their fate, but the courts did.”
Dipogiso says a loss for the coalition would have disoriented the UDC seriously. Inversely, a win validates the Umbrella.
He says the BMD is officially not a member and therefore is out in the cold and similarly the case means the Sidney Pilane led party has to fend for itself outside the UDC, which in his view is a mammoth task for them given their reliance on the case.
Dipogiso points out that every party had relied on the case.
“This speaks volumes about the preparedness of parties to this case each faced potential risk of disorientation in the case they lost. It’s not about the courts only and what happens at the courts. It’s also about each party’s political strategy. If BMD appeals at a time when Parliament is dissolved, new controversies might emerge in anticipation of nominations for elections.”
Another political analyst, Anthony Morima observes that the BMD is likely to lose some members to the UDC as it had hoped it would win the case and had invested money and energy into it.
Morima says even though voters do not rely much on the manifesto, the BMD still has a challenge to tell the voters what they are offering if voted into power.
“Time is not on their side. They have to start selling their manifesto to voters quickly. Remember they have been telling people that UDC manifesto is still theirs, but the courts made it clear that they are not part of the coalition and therefore they need to become more serious,” says Morima.
“The BMD has to start fielding candidates in areas where they do not have representation. What is painful is that some of their members had been campaigning using BMD colours combined with UDC ones and now the case calls for them to face reality.”
He says the only people who would not be shaken are the members who have love for the BMD.
He notes that the campaign would become complicated for those who have been campaigning using both symbols for UDC and BMD because they are now forced to make new posters with their party’s only.
However, BMD secretary general, Gilbert Mangole says he does not think that the outcome of the case would make an impact on their party.
“Our members are loyal to their party. Of course we had wanted to win it, but there is nothing that we can do if the courts prefer to favour the UDC. The members who have been using both BMD and UDC symbols will start to use the BMD one,” explains Mangole.
“Some of the members had already changed to using only BMD, I think there were few. People should understand that the BMD is growing as a party and we have representation in other constituencies, but not all.”