Climate change goes between the sheets
Mbongeni Mguni | Friday June 24, 2016 16:25
More efforts in the fields and less in the bedroom, is the message from a proposal by SADC responding to the poor forecasts for resources in the region.
Within 34 years or by 2050, the region’s member states could be enforcing a policy that families should be limited to four people, typically, parents and two children. By then, the generations where families would number up to 12 or more and include several wives, mistresses and their children, would be a thing of the past, if regional leaders have it their way.
As the region grapples with the effects of climate change and the intensification of its impact as the years progress, more radical ideas are coming forward.
As regional ministers met in Gaborone to brainstorm around the energy and water crises this week, their supporting documents revealed that the family planning policy was among proposals to cope with climate change and its impact on resources going forward.
Experts are agreed that the most parts of southern Africa will be hit the hardest by climate change, which will dry the skies and increase the frequency of droughts and famines. Ground and surface water resources will decrease, and increased evaporation from the ground will leave the soils more salty, thereby limiting plant growth.
Desertification, disease and severe economic impacts will snowball from the changes in the climate, leaving fewer resources available to the population.
The proposals on family planning are part of several demand-side interventions, which could avert a situation where rising populations compete over declining resources, leading to possible country and regional conflicts.
But SADC is not yet at the stage of implementing the policy yet. It wants to test the waters.
“As part of the recommended response measures, SADC should undertake a study to establish the acceptance levels, social impacts and outcomes, practicalities and implementation modalities, if found acceptable, of reducing the SADC average human family size to four persons per household by 2050,” reads the document.
“This, if found feasible, would stabilise the population growth rate, reduce the demand on water, energy, health, education, food and other resources and service provisions, whilst improving the quality of life and livelihoods of the SADC citizens.”
Had that statement been made anytime but this year, it would likely have been laughed out of the conference room where the ministers were gathered this week.
The statement would certainly not have found itself on official SADC documents for consideration at such a high level. The outcomes of the workshop are due before the August heads of summit meeting in Swaziland.
However, times have changed.
The region has experienced its second El Nino event, which has left 41 million people of the 292 million SADC population in need of food assistance. Out of this figure, more than 21 million are in urgent need of assistance, as the region emerges from its driest cropping season in 35 years.
According to a report released last week by SADC food director, Margaret Nyirenda, nearly 2.7 million SADC children are currently suffering from severe acute malnutrition, and this figure is expected to rise significantly if support to vulnerable populations is not immediately provided.
“We are deeply concerned about the scale of food insecurity in the region. We are experiencing the worst drought in the last 35 years. I call upon Member States and our development partners to act now, to avoid a further deterioration of the situation.
“People continue to lose their means of survival and we can lose lives if we do not act now.”
Other experts have noted that the gap between successive El Nino and drought years is growing shorter than the three to seven years originally estimated by experts. Also the El Nino and drought periods are getting harsher, with extreme heat in some parts of the region, set against incessant floods in other parts, all affecting food security and general economies.
Experts say the region’s uncontrolled population growth rate is putting pressure on resources such as water, electricity, food, health and education, particularly at a time when many countries are only now adapting to the changing climate.
And, as noted by ministers during the meeting, the region will only be able to cope with a future of tighter resources, through collaboration and sharing, so that what is abundant in one country, is shared to where it is in deficit.
“This approach, which was adopted at the end of the Gaborone meeting, means no one country can do it alone. Even in the population proposal, we will all need to work together to reduce the pressure on the shared resources,” a local SADC official said, requesting anonymity, as he is not permitted to issue press statements.
Those permitted to issue public statements were, however, unimpressed by the proposal.
“The proposal for four people per household and a study on this. I want to know how this will be done and who will do it,” mused the Namibian minister of Agriculture, Water and Forestry.
As the room reverberated with soft laughter, it was clear much of this was of the nervous variety.