BDP presidential race, a doubtful starter, but...
Ryder Gabathuse | Friday February 12, 2016 15:34
This change of guard, to usher in the fifth President, will in the scheme of things, be chiefly for the purposes of consolidating Masisi’s position ahead of his possible two-five year terms in office.
Those seeking to challenge Masisi in an endeavour to deny him a chance to benefit from the automatic succession are most likely to fail. In fact, there may be no challenger.
However, some BDP diehards, particularly those not pleased with Khama’s leadership, are strongly opposed to the impending Masisi takeover.
Khama is accused to have failed the BDP as it is during his term of office that the ruling BDP, which has been dominating power since 1966, won the general elections in 2014 with a below 50 percent popular vote.
This decline in the party fortunes is attributable to Khama’s leadership style which some say is autocratic.
Now, with Masisi’s political leadership in the mould of Khama’s, his take over is therefore tantamount to continuing the current leader’s legacy.
And Khama’s legacy has raised fears among some progressives, that the BDP is destined to the dustbin of history if something cannot be done now.
Progressives in the BDP ranks are opposed to this view, hence the emergence of about five challengers of Masisi to block a smooth transfer of power. Conservatives on the other side are fighting tooth and nail to ensure that their man, Masisi, sails through without a hitch.
Unfortunately or fortunately, within the BDP ranks talk is abound that the party will not allow anything of that sort to happen, despite that in a democratic set up, diversity of views is key.
“It will not be politically expedient for the ruling BDP to allow anything divisive to hit their shores at all,” posited a BDP diehard from Tsholetsa House, the party headquarters, this week.
The source, who preferred anonymity, said in certain select constituencies, the BDP may not even hold primary elections in the year of the general elections “because previous primaries have proven problematic”.
His argument is that given the battering that the party received at the hands of the opposition in the last general elections, there may be no motivation to entertain presidential elections as that may jeopardise the position of a party that continues to lose ground.
He said losers have previously failed to embrace the winners, which has left some party structures polarised.
“The BDP is not even ready to subject its president to an election, as that may not help the party face the marauding opposition that may be united with its sophisticated youthful leadership,” said the source.
Botswana’s ambassador to Japan Jacob Nkate, former minister Boyce Sebetlela, former MP Robert Masitara, minister Tshekedi Khama and lately minister Nonofho Molefhi are touted as possible challengers of Masisi.
The alleged challenge by some party operatives who strongly feel that Masisi does not have the wherewithal to lead the BDP, may turn up to be a no show as no challenger may possibly rise to the occasion and take Masisi head on.
This is just another possibility as Khama is also set to fight hard to safeguard his already shaky legacy.
Masisi himself has not taken things lying down as he has launched a bitter fight and is taking every moment to sell himself or simply parry his opposition inside and outside the party without fear. He is possibly readying himself for any possible eventuality - contest or no contest.
Through the various press conferences held recently, Masisi has started taking the party to the people and this has the potential to solidify his position within the party and the grassroots in particular, ahead of a possible contest.
Infact, Masisi’s power compared to his purported challengers, is almost consolidated.
The million-pula question in the midst of all this political hullabaloo, is how ready is the BDP to deal with a possible Masisi challenge?
In an attempt to answer the question, University of Botswana (UB) political science lecturer Leonard Sesa says the current BDP is so unpredictable so much that, “anything is possible.”
He says whether a policy or set of rules is available to guide the BDP diehard, it can happen that Masisi is ousted.
“With the current regime anything is possible,” he said, in answer to the question as to whether the BDP diehards were ready to amend the party constitution to the extent of possibly ousting Masisi as the heir apparent to the state and party presidency.
Political commentator Anthony Morima does not think ordinarily given the automatic succession rule, anyone can simply challenge Masisi to the throne.
“But, it’s possible that with an amendment to the party constitution through a special congress, a resolution repealing the automatic succession rule may change the game altogether,” he said, relating to the period before 2018.
Generally, Morima feels that the BDP for the purposes of its stability, there may not even be an amendment of the party constitution, for fear that the move may tear them asunder in an election year that the opposition unity, under the ambit of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) may wreak havoc.
The political analyst does not deny that in the interest of the party stability, the BDP may not even consider challenging Masisi.
Quizzed if the BDP constitution provided for a contestation for the office of party presidency, the party’s chairman for communications and international relations sub-committee, Thapelo Pabalinga answered in the affirmative.
“The party constitution does allow such a contestation. Our democratic credentials are what they are because of our constitution and relentless pursuit to follow it,” Pabalinga said.
Pabalinga is steadfast that the BDP as a party, is ready anytime for a possible contestation for the office of party presidency.
“The BDP is always ready as it’s an action party and right sanctioned by the party constitution. The party is mature enough to be able to deal with this should it occur,” Pabalinga stresses.
He holds the strong view that the contestation shows the extent of the BDP’s inner party democracy, contrary to those trying to paint it as something negative.
“Internal elections is a norm practised within the party and I dare challenge the media and critics alike to scrutinise whether the same can be said of our opposition parties, something that seems to elude our political journalists in this country,” Pabalinga said.