�Hell Nino� hunts the helpless
Mbongeni Mguni | Friday January 22, 2016 14:50
The story is told of a traditional leader attending the commissioning of the new Gaborone Dam wall in the mid-1980s.
Overawed by the vast amount of water, shimmering way into the horizon, the traditional leader is said to have vowed to eat his elbow should the Dam ever fail.
Yesterday, Gaborone Dam was measured at 1.8 percent, having gained a mere 0.3 percent since the New Year. Elbows have been eaten.
In the south, the Botswana Meat Commission’s flagship abattoir in Lobatse is often forced to half its daily slaughter or suspend it completely due to water shortages lasting up to a week.
Millers, meanwhile, have issued a warning of increases in phaleche of between 25 and 30 percent from this week, due to increases in white maize prices in South Africa.
Once a term used exclusively by Department of Meteorological Services staffers, the El Niño phenomenon has become an all-too real phenomenon for Botswana, as the country suffers its second successive drought.
El Niño is a climatic cycle defined by prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. The phenomenon produces increased thunderstorms in places such as South America and colder winters in Europe.
However, in southern Africa and Botswana in particular, El Niño brings dry rain seasons, heatwaves, bushfires, crop failures, livestock deaths and drought. It rattles food security and increases the weight on government social security schemes such as poverty alleviation, destitute programmes and Ipelegeng.
Besides the millions of Pula paid out in insurance for failed agricultural output and the millions more in unpaid credit commitments by farmers, the 2014-2015 drought directly cost taxpayers P445 million in emergency drought relief.
This year’s drought is expected to cost far more. The Met Services Dept expects this rain season to be the driest in 34 years and already, the country has experienced five heatwaves since October, the last of which took place in the New Year and raised temperatures to 44-year highs in some places.
“The deficit in rainfall is expected to continue over the remainder of the rainfall season mainly due to the persistent strong El Niño conditions,” says the department’s director, Thabang Botshoma.
“The models predict that the current strong El Niño has peaked and will start to decay in the southern hemisphere autumn.
“It is expected that the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and strong El Niño conditions will continue to have a major impact on the weather and climate systems over Botswana.”
The ‘decay’ Botshoma says will take place in the ‘Southern Hemisphere autumn’ in a tapering out or weakening of the climate phenomenon’s effects.
However, the Southern Hemisphere autumn occurs in March, a period when traditionally farmers are preparing for harvest.
A snap survey by Mmegi last December, indicated that farmers across the country had planted far fewer hectares than years before, with many simply giving up on the season altogether.
In Borolong: “I have not started ploughing yet because the fields are dry. There are no rains this year, but if they do come, I will consider ploughing early maturing varieties like beans. I am very disappointed because usually this time of the year, the crops would be at seedling stage.” - Kesentseng Sibanda
In Thamaga: “This year will be a joke and total waste if one ploughs. I don’t want to lie, we all want to plant something but if there is no rain, why should we plant. There is absolutely nothing to do.” - Dikae Ramohibidu
In Ramotswa: “There is no hope for me. I don’t know what my family is going to eat because I did not plough. Even my livestock has finished. Some are dead while others have been stolen. My health is also deteriorating in this heatwave.” - Leepile Gaanakobo
El Niño has stretched its tentacles across the region and the cereal powerhouse, South Africa, is also experiencing a downturn in projected production.
South Africa expects to import up to six million tonnes of maize at a cost of R20 billion (P14 billion).
Nkosi Mwaba, chairperson of the Botswana Millers Association, paints a bleak picture. The association expects maize prices to rise by up to 30 percent anytime, and these costs will be passed onto consumers by way of increases in maize meal prices.
Local millers import nearly all their maize from South Africa, where prices are skyrocketing due to the drought-induced shortfall in production.
“We have seen spikes in the price of maize since mid-November of about 57 percent,” he says.
“South Africa is experiencing its worst drought since 1992. Maize prices were about R3,200 per tonne in July and now they are about R4,800.
“There will be a reaction in terms of prices for retailers. We can predict with certainty that prices will go up and we are forecasting between 25 and 30 percent anytime now.”
According to Mwaba, South Africa is forecast to produce less than half of the 12 million tonne requirement of maize this year. Imports will likely be from the US or Mexico, coming in at a high premium. The rand’s plummet against the US and other hard currencies also means maize prices could sail beyond R5,000 per tonne by the third quarter of this year.
And all this will be directly felt by the local market, where the millers hold supply contracts with South Africa.
Mwaba explains that the impact of higher maize meal prices will be felt widely.
“People will look for substitutes for maize meal and go for pasta and rice, but the higher the demand for these, there could be a price increase also there.
“The fact is that South Africans are not relying on their own harvest. Even if it rains now and rains everyday, it’s too late for this year’s harvest.
“For sometime, the prices will remain high.”
Higher maize prices will also badly affect the livestock sector, which – due to the drought and lower pastures – has increased its consumption of stockfeed. According to Mwaba, the price of ‘chop’ or a key stockfeed ingredient, is also forecast to rise. Chop is a by-product of the same milling process that produces maize meal. “That price will go up along with maize, meaning the inputs for beef farming rise in turn. This then also means the price of beef may also rise.
“In fact, there’s an expectation that there will be an increase in the price of beef.”
The country’s livestock sector is already reeling from the decimation of pasture. In Ngamiland – prime cattle country – a combination of cattle overpopulation and drought has resulted in rising mortalities.
The recent cut back in slaughter at BMC’s Maun abattoir, due to the drying up of Thamakalane River, will only add to woes there.
In the south, some farmers have instructed their herdsmen to drive cattle to the urban and peri-urban areas where some semblance of pasture still remains. Many resisted government’s urgent appeal last April for farmers to destock and cut costs, as they hoped against hope for rains.
“The drought has been devastating,” says a prominent southern farmer, requesting anonymity.
He estimates the Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) has lost about P35 million as a result of water shortages at the Lobatse abattoir since August.
“The whole value chain has broken down.”
BMC spokesperson, Brian Dioka says an assessment or cost-value of the situation has not yet been completed, as the water crisis “is still unfolding”.
“However this could potentially limit us from increasing our product sales/supply to new customers,” he says.
“BMC product remains highly sought-out in the global market space, and because of this, new customers often would want to access it – making it difficult now to accommodate them under the current scenario.”
With the Lobatse abattoir requiring up to 4,000 litres of water per beast in slaughter, the water crisis gripping the south has resulted in suspension of operations on some days.
Farmers explain that having incurred high costs maintaining the number and quality of their herds, with the high cost of stock feed involved, the suspension of slaughter means deferred revenues and higher pressure on cash flow.
According to Dioka, water is a critical and irreplaceable ingredient in the abattoir’s operations.
“There is also need for water within the plant such as for human consumption, and for other hygienic outtakes such as sterilising of equipment (knives and saws) as well as the abattoir itself.
“Our workforce needs water for varied uses at their homes, and even to come to work.
“Water rationing in Lobatse and possibly other affected areas, has worsened from two to three days in a week to either a week or more.
“There are times when water is only available at very late hours, but still not enough to sustain a day’s production at BMC,” he explains.
According to Dioka, the Lobatse plant slaughters between 600 and 650 cattle each day of its five working days a week. However, the water rationing, there have been time “where we only achieve half of the daily capacity or even temporarily suspend slaughter-services completely”.
“BMC is currently not challenged to meet contractual supply agreements with its existing customers. Our strategy, at least for a few years back, has been for us to produce products per customer orders/specifications and we have been implementing that successfully even with reduced water supply.
“The only challenge, should the situation persist, is that we would not be in a position to take in more or new customers than we could.”
The BMC acknowledges the impact of the drought and water shortage on farmers, saying their stock will be of poor quality than before and attract even lower prices and returns.
“However, they understand that the situation (water crisis) is beyond anyone’s comprehension, similarly with the prevalent drought,” Dioka says.
“For farmers that trade with BMC for direct-kill/slaughter, they have had to cancel their supplies to the BMC Lobatse plant given the above scenario, also noting that the abattoir itself would have suspended operations on such a day. “The regrettable inconvenience is unimaginable, especially that farmers spend a lot of time and money to care for their stock with intentions of selling to BMC when their stock reaches saleable conditions.
“The absence of this sales activity is (also) likely to reduce cattle throughput at BMC.”
For the Lobatse abattoir, news that the nearby Nnywane Dam is now at 100 percent could provide some relief.
But for farmers dependent on pasture and those still holding out for a miracle in the clouds over their fields, Hell Niño is the unwanted visitor who would not leave.