BDP battles for survival
Chakalisa Dube | Friday January 15, 2016 15:36
The BDP lost all the six by-elections held including the highly contested Goodhope-Mabule parliamentary by-election where the President Ian Khama’s right hand man, Eric Molale, lost dismally to the Umbrella for Democratic Change’s candidate, Barolong royal, Kgosi Lotlamoreng II.
The party fired some of its secretariat staff members, which observers said were given the boot because they were pro-Botsalo Ntuane’s reforms.
That was before the BDP elective congress in Mmadinare, at which Ntuane was contesting and won the powerful post of secretary general.
Also, in 2015 the BDP faced much hostility from its Members of Parliament (MPs).
The likes of Tati East MP Guma Moyo and Francistown West’s Ignatius Moswaane were very critical of the party. This is despite a strong warning from President Khama that those who continue to criticise the party in public will be dealt with the hard way.
BDP MPs were also increasingly becoming un-trusted which easily explained Khama’s decision, immediately after the 2014 general elections, to go to court seeking specially elected MPs to be nominated by show of hand not secret ballot. Khama lost the case.
The BDP problems are likely to escalate in the next 12 months. For several reasons the internal strive that has often characterised the ruling party is likely to continue this year.
Firstly, the party late last year announced that it was welcoming its ‘mekoko’ as those who ditched the party to stand, as independent candidates are known within the BDP cycles. It is undisputed that numbers help a party thrive, but welcoming mekoko without thorough vetting may present challenges for the ruling party.
Mekoko may have had a point that they were cheated at the BDP primaries before they left, but most politicians by nature never graciously accept defeat. Again, the fact that most of them contested elections as independent candidates presents them as mere opportunists and may defect when it suits them.
The party executive may also experience its internal problems. Ntuane’s term as secretary general is also expected to take shape this year after he came into office mid last year.
Already some members who are part of the central committee are known to be against Ntuane’s reforms. Should there be resistance of Ntuane’s reforms this is likely to cause an internal strive within the party leadership, which may spill to the ordinary membership.
Another issue that may be a challenge to the ruling party within the next 12 months is the anticipated coalition of the opposition parties the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP).
Should the proposed coalition come to pass, it will be like The Sword to Damocles on the head of the BDP. The BCP is a party with a strong labour policy.
Should it join hands with the UDC it will sway some workers to the opposition coalition, especially in an era when the Khama administration is known for solving workers issues in the courts of law.
Political commentator Ndulamo Morima acknowledged that welcoming back mekoko might bring divisive figures in the party because some of them are still angry about events leading to the last general elections.
“It however has to be noted that the party will also inevitably welcome members who can be vital.” The problem with African politics, he said, “is that people are appeased by giving them positions. If some mekoko are given positions within the party, it is likely to anger others who will be denied positions, which may cause divisions within the party”.
“It is really difficult to recommend how the party can effectively avert instability that may be brought by those who will be welcomed back. If mekoko are not treated well they may defect at a critical time,” he said.
Regarding Ntuane’s reforms Morima noted that within the party executive “there are those who believe that Ntuane is a radical and as such may use that basis to shun his reforms which may fuel divisions in the party”.
He said that if Ntuane gets the backing of influential central committee members such as the President and the party Chairman his reforms might be implemented with ease, which could avert divisions.
Morima believes that the coalition between opposition parties can benefit or destroy the BDP.
“If the outcomes of the coalition talks are not pleasant it may divide the opposition which will give the BDP an edge,” he said.
Morima said that if the coalition becomes a success it would be a blow to the BDP, as the party will now have less numbers. “Again if the opposition coalition becomes a success it can bring about bad impacts to the opposition leading to the general elections because there is likely to be jostling for space to contest the general elections.” The government’s Economic Stimulus Package (ESP) may also weaken the BDP according to Morima.
“Already there is an indication that some MPs feel that the projects for the ESP have not been properly allocated per constituency. MPs who may feel that projects allocated to their areas are not satisfactory may cause divisions within the party which is likely to have negative consequences,” he said.
Ntuane however remains optimistic that the BDP will have a good year.
“We are looking with optimism at the new year. Remember we have a new central committee, which together with its supporting structures came into office five months ago. It takes a bit of time for office bearers to find their footing and to develop a sense of purpose over a common vision. The entire team is hitting the ground running this year,” he said.
He admitted that the BDP did not do as it wished in by-elections whereby the opposition essentially retained the areas they won in 2014, but expressed hope that the ruling party will turn things around this year.
He said that the debate over reforms have long moved from an idea that can be attached to a single individual. He said resolutions eight and nine of the Mmadinare congress as decided by delegates make reforms a collective idea by stating that the Central Committee is mandated to explore possible areas of political and electoral reforms including but not limited to party funding.
He also shunned the suggestion that mekoko may cause problems for the BDP. “Our structures know what to do to make returnees feel home and integrated. We haven’t experienced any problems thus far. We extend an invitation to those still in limbo to make up their minds and return home. Our doors remain wide-open 24/7,” he said.
As for opposition coalition, which may be a threat to the BDP Ntuane, said, “We treat our political rivals with respect and are always working to respond to their best-case scenario.
“We are following developments on the cooperation talks. We know it won’t be easy for the talks to succeed because this is a road travelled before which ended nowhere. Be that as it may we are preparing for 2019 on the scenario that the talks have succeeded and we will be ready,” Ntuane declared boldly.