Will BNF, BCP feud split UDC ?
Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Friday January 8, 2021 18:31
If events of the recent past are anything to go by, the two leading opposition parties within the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), being Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana Congress Party (BCP), may be headed for a fight that could result in the break up of the coalition.
The above stated position is how different analysts view the situation as they assess what could happen in the ongoing row between the UDC coalition’s major constituent parties.
Social media has been alight since last week as prominent personalities in both parties have taken off the gloves to publicly attack each other, amidst mouth-dropping allegations and insults. At the heart of the dispute appears to be a fight from the BCP to take over the presidency of the UDC from the BNF.
Political commentator, Lawrence Ookeditse says the dispute is about how to maintain the balance of power within the UDC.
“Before the 2019 general election, the BNF was the big partner in the UDC with numbers in Parliament,” he says. “Post the election, the leadership of the UDC still reflects that BNF supremacy yet the numbers in parliament are in favour of the BCP. “Naturally then, the balance has tilted and shifted away from BNF to BCP. “This naturally brings in competition and ambition. “What you then need to do is to shift the fulcrum to still maintain a balance. “One way to do this is by having a third party/coalition member which can shift its numbers to one of the sides to ensure there is no doubt as to the power dynamics.” . he said.
He continued: “This is to say: a power balancer would make each side know that they can be defeated by an alliance within the coalition. Currently it seems BCP and BNF each believe it could win a Congress vote. This is dangerous. It is dangerous to have each partner believe it can win.”
In addition, Ookeditse pointed out that the situation gives rise to unbridled ambition and turmoil within the UDC.
“At the very least, you need each party to fear the other (mutually assured destruction). Right now BCP and BNF seem to each think it can destroy the other and remain unscathed. This is a dangerous situatio.” he stated.
However veteran journalist and political commentator, Thapelo Ndlovu, who is also a BCP sympathiser, says the claims of one party holding superiority over another should be laid to rest.
“BCP and BNF command respectable public goodwill in opposition politics. Claiming one has the edge over the other is often misleading because a sizable membership of each holds straddled loyalty. “This means unless the other completely perishes, neither will achieve the ultimate mandate of regime change without the other, at least in the foreseeable future. “There is also the risk that if one dies, they both die' he asserted. Ndlovu believes It is important that both parties reach into their ideological banks and retrieve or modify whatever can work now. He says operating in a vacuum without any philosophical backing leads to uninhibited indiscipline and lack of direction which is why the youth, in particular, end up running amok, “almost headless”.
Serious internal and external political education is overdue, Ndlovu says.
“The two need to strengthen their institutional capacity and go slow on individual worshipping or cultism,” he urges. “The latter is bound to elicit demagoguery politics, characterised with insults when reason and logic become elusive. “Even within the UDC, BCP and BNF must have some bilateral arrangement but without alienating other partners; for instance, issues of discipline need some satellite structure to deal with them.” While some people have called for a total merger of the opposition parties, Ndlovu is in disagreement. He says he values multi-partyism more and also does not believe the BNF and BCP will ever blend in a way that some suggest, despite their sibling attachment.
“The danger is that if the merged unit collapses, there will be no fall back as each will have to recollect itself, another 50 year marathon. The good thing about the current arrangement is that, it has the face of a one party while in essence it is multiple parties. One can still seek shelter from the other when aggrieved in another,” he explains.
Ndlovu supports the call for inner-party democracy in the UDC, especially under current arrangement. He believes in a rotational method involving affiliates that meet a certain threshold or an open elective arrangement.
“A party with so much political clout like BCP and lately Botswana Patriotic Front (if it becomes an affiliate) will definitely want to have a go at the driving seat. It would be naïve to expect otherwise. “The other factor to note is the role of other partners and potentials like, BPF, Botswana Peoples Party and Alliance for Progressives in ensuring that the main two act civilly. “If at all they want a change of regime, they must stop sucking up to any of these main two but try by all means to be objective if and when faced with the role of mediation.”
Meanwhile, University of Botswana political science lecturer, Keaoleboga Dipogiso says there is a need to recall the objective of forming the BCP.
“It was believed at that time that the BNF was worn out and therefore it needed to be replaced with fresh energy in the form of a new party,” he says. “This was the popular sentiment within the party elite including a sizeable number of MPs and councillors who ended up defecting to form the BCP. “However, this objective has never been successful, causing a 20-year period of strife and very little or no success at all at the BCP. “Success I refer to meaningful influence in representative structures within the country, not the numerical triumph they have experienced over the years.”
Dipogiso says this means that whilst BCP has remained inferior to BNF over the years, the struggle to ward off the BNF has never ceased, causing permanent rivalry between the two parties.
“Hence each time coalition talks were ignited they would break off swiftly as there were elements of mistrust between the parties. “The dismal showing of BCP in 2014 marked a turbulent trajectory in the politics of the party and its relevance altogether. “They had to find a way back into the UDC and their readmission was a source of salvation to them. “This happened within the context of simmering mistrust and was devoid of caution particularly on the side of BNF which had influence within the UDC. “I say so because, there is no evidence that the BCP had backed down on their position that BNF is a wasted party worth replacing, and their return to the UDC was always an opportunity to resuscitate themselves back to relevance, to continue with their objective, ”he said.
The political science lecturer also said it is therefore not surprising that the BCP and BNF are at loggerheads, as this was always going to happen given the historic circumstances and future contingencies of the parties.
“It is a war of conquest,” he says.
Meanwhile, the UDC is reportedly forming a disciplinary team made of party chairpersons to quell the latest infighting among members.