Cabinet at pains over fresh lockdown
Mbongeni Mguni | Friday January 22, 2021 17:19
As at January 15, the country had 1,892 active cases of COVID-19 and 88 deaths which have mostly occurred in recent weeks. While the numbers of patients in medical facilities and respirators is not known, healthcare officials say the system is under pressure particularly from the new, aggressive Coronavirus variant from South Africa.
The current curfew is due to expire on January 31 and with the rising cases and deaths, authoritative sources said Cabinet had asked the Coronavirus Task Team to advise on how best to proceed.
“Cabinet is not agreeing on the issue of quickly imposing a lock down because of how the economy has suffered during previous lockdowns,” a source familiar with the latest developments told Mmegi. “During one of the briefings this week, the members said a fresh lockdown cannot be the answer to the problem now and instead ways should be suggested on how people can be educated to reduce the trend. “The country does not have money to feed people and also to help the companies with salaries.”
During the first national lockdown last year, government spent P4 billion on countrywide food relief packages for households as well as wage subsidies, tax relief measures for companies as well as emergency procurement of medical equipment and supplies. The funds also provided for the waiver of the training levy, a loan guarantee scheme and others.
The additional spending, which included P500 million under the Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan, means government is expecting a deficit of P15.2 billion for the financial year which ends on March 31, 2021. The expected deficit is equal to about eight percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), violating government’s public finance rule that limits deficits to four percent of GDP. Frequent and large violations of any government’s own fiscal rules generally discomfort investors and financiers.
Government has broken the deficit fiscal rule in all the years since the 2018/19 financial year and prior to COVID-19’s outbreak, was advised by the International Monetary Fund to balance the budget for the sake of fiscal stability. This year, the Finance Ministry has reportedly committed itself to limiting the deficit to the fiscal rule, which, based on the GDP, would suggest a short fall of about P8.5 billion in the 2021/22 budget.
Sources close to Cabinet told Mmegi that members had also asked for economists briefing on what measures could be taken to balance a fresh lockdown with minimal damage to the economy.
“Government simply cannot afford to pay for a new lockdown given its budget situation and the low reserves position,” a source following the discussions told Mmegi on Thursday. “The economy also cannot afford a fresh lockdown. Many businesses are struggling to recover from the effects of the last national lockdown and even the curfew has curtailed activity to an extent. “However, decisions have to be made and made soon.”
Botswana Democratic Party chief whip, Liakat Kablay told Mmegi the ruling party’s caucus would be discussing the matter soon.
“It is true the issue of lockdown will be on our agenda when caucus meets soon,” he said on Thursday. “Some MPs want a fresh lockdown while some believe that the curfew is working. “We want to know what best can be done to avoid the spread of COVID-19. “In some of the areas the virus is affecting people a lot and our population is very small. “I believe from the caucus both MPs and Cabinet Ministers will have agreed on something concrete that can help save the country.
Health and Wellness minister, Edwin Dikoloti told Mmegi he could not comment on the matter, while Task Team officials proved difficult to reach.
It is understood the duration of any new lockdown would be limited by the expiry of the State of Public Emergency which elapses early in March. Parliament however, can be requested to extend the State of Public Emergency as it did on previous occasions last year.