Considering The Budget Speech- Final Reflections

Lesego Nswahu Nchunga | Monday March 1, 2021 14:55

The question one might ask is; do we think it will achieve what it is meant to achieve? And to what extent? Does it give realistic estimates? Will we find ourselves having to recover again, from a year we did not anticipate, yet we could have? And what of the excessive expenditure at the highest echelons of leadership? Should that be taken into account in considering the state of the nation’s finances? Or is that just a petty oppositional tactic as has been argued?

The Budget Speech is an important event in the national calendar as it let us us know the state of our country’s finances and economy. It is supposed to consider the previous year, as we noted in the first piece, and project into the following year, estimating, and anticipating what will incur that will need finance from the nation itself, and how to maintain the current state of the country’s finances.

The most recently delivered budget speech, to an extent, purports to address the latter: reflecting on the impact of the ongoing pandemic, much of it is a reflection and response to the pandemic, developing, as it does, a “recovery plan” to be followed, as we explored in the last two pieces, related to agribusiness and tax increases.

The challenge which remains, however, is that although it considers COVID-19 and the impact that responses to the pandemic have had on the national economy, the reaction is almost as if it does not anticipate that we will, for as long as a cure is not found, and the vaccine merely but trickles down to us, we will have to take measures, as a country, to respond to the pandemic. Most of these measures will certainly be drastic, depending on the state of the pandemic, and how the national response is. Some may not be as drastic. Either way, however intense the measures may be, they will impact the economy, as well as livelihoods, one way or the other.

We have seen it before. Ideally, we should have learnt from it, and should have the capacity, in anticipation of it, to cushion against it.

At the time that the budget speech was developed, it was clear that the pandemic is still a very live reality for us, which will continue to be a reality for the foreseeable future. We observed, helplessly as the lockdowns knocked many SMEs to their knees. We also saw how industries collapsed, and many losing their income as a result. Undeniably, many have, as a result of this retreated into poverty, unemployment and underemployment. When it was not the lockdowns, we observed the way the decision to stop the sale of alcohol halt the operation of an establishment which also hires so many people. The decision had not, it would seem anticipated this knock down effect.

One of the most glaring components of the budget speech is that certain government-led industries will, for the time being, not be hiring. With the unemployment rate having been at the rate it was before the pandemic crept into Botswana, and with the ways that the country has been adversely been affected by the pandemic, one wonders how recovery will be achieved, in the middle of the storm we are in, when we cannot even decrease unemployment.

It is quite challenging to not take into consideration the millions of pula being spent on the impending renovations of the State House, and the purchase, by the President of armoured vehicles at such a time as now. More alarming is the timing of this expenditure and the failure to take cognisance of the state of the country’s economy, in spending in this way.  In addition to this, are the funds that will be spent paying cases lost in court on the NPF case, amongst other cases.

There seems to be an absence of a real strategy of where we are at present, in order to adequately respond. Alternatively, there is complete apathy, which hinders decision makers to be realistic in their projections and anticipations.

We also cannot help but wonder as to whether had circumstances been any different, with no global pandemic to deal with, would the government have boldly taken some of the hard hitting decisions? Would some of the taxes introduced take the shape and form that they are to be enacted in come April 1st? Would there have been any rolling back of the state which had been a recommendation to guard against the public service which was hastily growing beyond its size. Covid and its aftermath will be dealt with at least for some time, and it is with the highest degree of optimism that we hope it will continuously be factored in all decision making. A lot can happen in a year, 2020 being a case in point, so we hope that by the time 2022/2023 budget estimates are discussed later in the year, the economy will be in a much better shape.

*This article was written in partnership with Tuduetso Madi. Madi recently got admitted into a Doctoral Programme with a focus on Military Sociology. She also holds an MA Politics & International Relations. Her interests are in Political Economy and International Affairs.