Normal to below normal rainfall forecast
Mbongeni Mguni | Tuesday September 8, 2015 18:00
Released on Sunday, the report provides the first forecast of the October to March rainfall season for Botswana. The Department of Meteorological Services is due to release its own eagerly anticipated forecast this Friday in Gaborone. The SARCOF estimate was produced after an August meeting of SADC weather and climate prediction experts, climate scientists from universities and research institutions as well as regional and international organisations engaged in climate modelling and prediction.
According to the SARCOF report, the bulk of SADC’s southern states are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for the period October to December 2015 and January to March 2016.
“The climate scientists took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence our climate over SADC region,” the SARCOF statement reads. “A persistent strong El Nino is also favoured during the bulk of the rainfall season.”
The data shows that between October and December, Botswana will have a 40 percent chance of normal rain, a 35 percent chance of below normal rain and a 25 percent of above normal rain. The percentages are maintained unchanged for the January to March period.
According to Met Services dept figures, normal rainfall for Botswana means amounts ranging from 650 millimetres in Kasane to less than 250 millimetres in Tsabong.
Gaborone, which is in the throes of a crippling water crisis due to the failure of Gaborone Dam, receives average rainfall of 531 millimetres.
Friday’s stakeholder conference is expected to focus on the prospects for inflows into Gaborone and Bokaa dams, as well as forecasts for agricultural production.