Possible UDC, BCP merger to upset BDP
Ryder Gabathuse | Friday September 4, 2015 17:36
With the recent winds of change blowing across the opposition bloc, there is likelihood of future upsets.
This is especially so if the sleeping giant in the opposition, Botswana Congress Party (BCP), joins the UDC.
In fact, a BDP senior member has conceded this week that if the UDC and BCP partnership comes to pass, it will definitely give them sleepless nights.
The tagline that BDP diehards used, ‘BDP go ya go ile’ (BDP forever) is no longer relevant as it has seemingly been overtaken by events.
Maybe it is the slogans that have blinded people and encouraged complacency within the ruling party’s rank and file.
On the political scene factors are fast conniving against the ruling party, which has been in government since 1966, after it was handed power on a silver platter by the British.
Not only are the BDP fortunes waning its appeal to the masses has equally taken a knock.
The BDP’s 52 percent popular vote garnered in the 2009 general elections had dropped to about 47 percent in the last general elections under President Ian Khama’s rule.
In fact, former president Festus Mogae retired Khama from the army to protect his presidency, which by then was shaken by internal forces. Khama, who was widely viewed as a neutral force, performed his function and secured Mogae’s presidency with aplomb.
He has however, failed to maintain the BDP’s position.
Khama failed a major test in his political career in 2010, when he did not contain differences between himself and some party Young Turks, who had grouped under a faction traditionally known as Barata-Phathi.
They had just won a majority of positions in the party leadership at the Kanye party elective congress against Khama’s preferred candidates.
Khama blundered by refusing to work with the Young Turks and overlooked them.
Outspoken politicians such as Wynter Mmolotsi (Now UDC Member of Parliament), Gomolemo Motswaledi (the late UDC secretary general), Botsalo Ntuane (Now BDP secretary general), Samson Moyo Guma (BDP MP), Kgosi Moremi (UDC MP) are among some of the pioneering members of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD), a UDC partner.
They formed the BMD after they were fired one after the other from the BDP for questioning Khama’s leadership style and labelling him a dictator and autocrat. Today, they are giving the BDP leadership a torrid time in both Parliament and freedom square politics.
It is apparent that people are shifting their loyalty to the new dispensation (UDC) led by the charismatic lawyer Duma Boko in what has become popularly known as the people’s project.
Civil servants under the guise of the Botswana Federation of Public Sector Trade Unions (BOFEPUSU) continue to support UDC though there is no clear mandate ordering them to align themselves.
The business community is not left behind as some are reportedly shifting their loyalty from the BDP to the UDC, perhaps in anticipation of the new dispensation.
The UDC recently staged an expensive campaign in the Goodhope/Mabule constituency like it did in last year’s general elections. The party’s candidate Kgosi Lotlamoreng II and the UDC leadership were airlifted around the constituency as they canvassed for support in a hired chopper, something that did not come cheap.
In a nutshell, the UDC almost matched the ruling party, which had unleashed its cabinet members, who were chauffeur-driven in their official motor vehicles, selling various government policies and programmes to the constituents.
The UDC has faceless benefactors that are drawn from the business community that used to exclusively support the BDP.
They are driven by a need to bring about a change of government.
Recently, UDC spokesperson Moeti Mohwasa confirmed that the UDC partners enjoyed the backing of some business community he could not name.
“These are people who want to enhance democracy but we cannot name them for now,” Mohwasa said in a recent interview.
The BDP can only take the recent developments within the opposition bloc lightly at its own peril.
Talk is abound that the BCP, which emerged from last year’s general elections bruised, has taken another look at its position and is considering joining the UDC.
Humbled by the recent by-election in Goodhope/Mabule the BCP leaders recently swallowed their pride and issued an official statement that supported their case in favour of opening talks with the UDC.
Dithapelo Keorapetse, BCP publicity secretary conceded in a recent interview that it is high time opposition parties joined hands to topple the BDP.
Maybe it is time for the BDP to change political tactics as their approach is out of touch with the latest developments.
A worried BDP diehard at the party’s Tsholetsa House headquarters who preferred anonymity is adamant that for the BDP to remain relevant it must start investing in young leaders that are not tainted by party factionalism.
He noted that Bulela Ditswe has to be seriously reviewed.
“The BCP has been shamed by its loss in a recent by-election and it is getting closer to the UDC. This might strengthen the opposition bloc against the BDP,” declared a worried BDP activist.
Disunity within the BDP ranks is one of the factors not helping the party’s gains because at most elections, the party splits or some members feel strongly cheated.
Party internal disputes have found their way to the courts of law instead of being handled amicably through the dispute resolution mechanisms in-house.
Although Khama encourages what he calls “party first and individuals later” it seems individualism has crept into the party ranks so much that whenever there are disputes they result in some members opting to leave the party or going to court.
At the recent Goodhope/Mabule by-election Fankie Motsaathebe who had cited some irregularities protested the BDP primary elections won by Eric Molale.
Despite queries by Motsaathebe, Molale was declared the party candidate and at the end of it all Molale lambasted Motsaathebe and his supporters for not supporting him in the by-election.
Two disgruntled Goodhope/Mabule councillors and primary election loser Motsaathebe are on their way out of the BDP because of accusations levelled against them by Molale.
Almost all the elections in the BDP have their own negative story to be told.
As part of the preparations for the impending Boswelatlou council by-election, the BDP leadership is already grappling with four people who have shown interest in contesting.
Efforts by the party leadership to have one person running for the by-election has not been successful, a BDP insider informed Mmegi.
The BDP lost this ward to the UDC in 2014 by a mere two votes and this has attracted many interested contenders.
This might create unnecessary instability.
BDP secretary general Botsalo Ntuane does not undermine the strength of the UDC, especially if the BCP joins them.
“I think they can give us sleepless nights if they join forces, especially when you look at the many marginal constituencies across the country held by the BDP, provided they put their house in order,” he said.
He noted that combined BCP/UDC constituencies exceed those of the BDP.
“First of all, I don’t think it’s going to be smooth sailing for the BCP/UDC to share the constituencies just like that,” he observed, adding that there is likelihood of instability arising from the sharing of constituencies. “So, the instability may benefit us.”
In the absence of any disputes arising from the sharing of constituencies, Ntuane concedes: “Then we are in for big trouble”. Political analyst, Anthony Morima acknowledged that with a strong presence in the north of the Dibete cordon fence, the BCP could add to the strength of the opposition.
“Marginal constituencies, which were won by the BDP across the country could in future swing in favour of the UDC depending on the candidates,” analysed Morima. He noted that BCP president Dumelang Saleshando carries his own political weight and his return could change things as his absence in Parliament is felt.
“Besides the recent hullaballoo that hit the BCP, at office level and branding gnerally, the BCP has been ahead of its peers. If the BCP could bring that to the UDC, it will give BDP sleepless nights,” said Morima.