Looking to 2019
Bame Piet | Friday July 31, 2015 14:16
Already playing out and pointing to determining factors are the election of Botsalo Ntuane as secretary general of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), the almost certain merger of the three opposition parties – the Botswana National Front (BNF), the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and the Botswana Peoples Party (BPP); as well as the uncertainty of the Botswana Congress Party joining the umbrella.
Opinion makers have observed that those in opposition should not take the combination of Ntuane and the new BDP chairman, vice president Mokgweetsi Masisi lightly. They are a lethal combination. While Masisi may not be popular for his ‘lelope’ utterances, he is still a strong candidate to handle opposition big brains in the likes of Duma Boko and Ndaba Gaolathe. He will present a tough game for opposition if he survives the party turbulences until 2019. But what will be more interesting about the BDP is the Ntuane’s return, and his vision for the country. It is a vision that may be attractive even to some youth in the opposition, but he alone cannot make it a reality.
In serialised articles dubbed the Reform agenda of BDP, prior to the Mmadinare elective congress, Ntuane argued that BDP must advocate for a strong activist central committee and this means recalibrating its relations with government. “The party must reclaim its authority over government. The party must lead government and not subordinate, as is the case presently. The voice of the party must be heard loud and clear on every single issue,” he wrote. Since he assumed power, President Ian Khama’s policies have left many people, including some BDP members disillusioned. One way or the other, Ntuane’s vision was borne out of frustration with the status quo where the party president is everything unto himself. The President’s unilateral and abrupt policies, his handling of civil servant’s union BOFEPUSU has resulted in about 20 or so cases pending before the High Court and Court of Appeal; and the Government has lost the majority of cases that have been concluded. The president’s hatred for the private press has spread to civil servants, some of whom are taking advantage of the status quo not to account for their departments. These problems are exacerbated by the government’s poor communication strategy or lack of it, and refusal to respond to media enquiries on time. On average, it takes four weeks for a government department, or parastatal to respond to a media enquiry, yet, it takes the official a few minutes to book for rebuttal through BTV, using preceded by the infamous and hilarious line, “Mmuso o tshwenyegile…” In the process, this has created the perception that the BDP government tolerates corruption and abuses state media to spread propaganda, and provoking questions as to whether officers are ever called to account why they have not responded to media enquiries.
“We must reset our relations with labour, private media, students, the middle class and other disaffected constituencies through rapproachment and other genuine outreach initiatives,” Ntuane argued in his reform agenda. The 2014 elections also came at a time when there was outrage at the failure of Morupule B Power Station, failure of Palapye Glass project, collapse of BMC, non delivery of the Francistown stadium, delayed expansion of Sir Seretse Khama International Airport, and other development projects and no explanations were given. “To demonstrate our commitment to good governance and zero tolerance for corruption and abuse of public office, the long overdue law on declaration of assets and liabilities must be enacted. This action will also shield innocent public officers/politicians from unfounded accusations of looting. In the eyes of the public, the BDP refuses to bring the law because the party is protecting looters,” wrote the then aspirant BDP secretary general.
Five years earlier, in November 2011, in his response to State of the Nation Address as Leader of Opposition, in his inspiring The Road to Demark, Ntuane outlined his dreams for Botswana and economic prosperity for all. Among the things he mentioned were national dialogue, Chinese dominance, economic empowerment schemes, national reconciliation/clemency for civil servants, and foreign policy. “Denmark is a stable, peaceful, prosperous, inclusive and honest society. To achieve this a nation must observe the three elements of rule of law, accountable government and a functioning state. We exist to ensure that the three elements are adhered to because we aspire to the ideal society such as found in Denmark.”
Khama’s departure
There is no doubt that President Khama was the most polarising figure in the history of Botswana politics for his lack of tolerance of debate. Unlike his predecessors, Khama did not engage all members of society – students, academicians, and opposition parties, nor has he ever presented himself to debate. Those who left the BDP argued that the party had lost internal democracy and that only Khama’s voice, and the voices of those surrounding him were listened to. This alone created mystery around his character, and whether he was fit to be President. Those who agreed or disagreed with the President’s policies did it with extreme passion.
The evidence is clearly stated in his decision to disregard the outcome of the 2009 Kanye Congress, in which his team was thrashed. He immediately dismantled it and placing Gomolemo Motswaledi on a five-year suspension. Khama’s policies on how people should spend their leisure time, cutting of operating hours for entertainment centres, failure to create sustainable jobs, and a perception that he tolerates corruption, are some of the reasons that the BDP performed poorly in 2014 elections. Following the ‘assassination’ of entertainment in their country, thousands of Batswana now spend their money in the northwest province of South Africa, whilst thousands of their compatriots lost source of income because of the ‘painful’ alcohol levy and limited alcohol-trading hours. During Khama’s reign, again, thousands of people lost their jobs due to indiscriminate deportation of foreigners and the Immigration Department’s policy, which makes it impossible for foreigners to enter the country and set up businesses.
Khama also came in to office in company of the revered Directorate on Intelligence and Security (DIS) a good initiative if properly handled. However, the DIS has never enjoyed any good reputation, since it was immediately associated with extra-judicial killings, spying on opposition politicians, spying on rival BDP members, and even monitoring the private affairs of government critics.The presence of DIS also caused distrust and suspicion among citizens as people started to talk watching their shoulder. The DIS, with reported internal divisions, still has time to revamp its image and restore public confidence before 2019. It will be a humongous task, but one that is very important and achievable. The recent figures in Goodhope-Mabule BDP primaries show that the minister of presidential affairs and public administration Eric Molale is not very popular in the party after he beat Fankie Motsaathebe with a very small margin. Molale was, until he entered the political fray, an established and respected figure after having served as permanent secretary to the former President Festus Mogae, and his successor Ian Khama. While a rising figure in the BDP, the man does not seem to wield grassroots support. Of course anything can change, just as it happened with Masisi who until Mmadinare was said to be the most unpopular VP, Molale can surprise many. With circulating rumours that the powers that be would do anything for him to win the Good-Mabule by-election on August 15, to ensure smooth ride to VP position, to overthrow Masisi; it is obvious that Molale is the anointed one. It is even said that Masisi is aware that his biggest threat is none other than Molale. This is not good for the party’s stability. Khama’s gesture of reinstating members of the old central committee, and giving Mmadinare losers powerful positions in the new committee buttress the reports, and are a clear demonstration that the man will still be in power, even after his departure in 2018.
Whatever he wants to protect must be bigger than the BDP itself, said one party member who cannot be mentioned by name. Nonetheless, if the Masisi-Ntuane team survives the turbulence that awaits it between now and 2019 elections, then opposition gains will definitely be threatened.
BNF commitment to opposition unity
When the BDP was going through a circus of a primary election in Goodhope-Mabule constituency, the BNF was in the neighbourhood. Not only was the most stable party today in a conference, but was canvassing support for its candidate, Kgosi Lotlamoreng II. It was during the well-attended conference the party president, who is also the leader of the UDC, Duma Boko said that the party is fully committed to opposition unity. He reiterated that the “BNF is a progressive popular democratic movement that embraces within itself diverse political and ideological tendencies whose unifying platform is the social democratic programme”. He re minded the membership that at its conception, opposition unity was met with stiff resistance from some members.
“We took these decisions together despite the fact that many of our comrades were shooting an endless flurry of poisoned arrows at us and at me in particular. We stood firm in the face of all these interludes of rebellion because we did not want to offer our country a future that was, at best, a repetition of the present. We wanted to pursue a future that was spectacularly different and liberating for our people”. Boko stated that contrary to belief, opposition unity has no potential or threat whatsoever to swallow or bring death of the BNF. He said the leadership faced then, as it still does now, murmurs from certain quarters who declare that the success of the project of unity signals a death of the BNF yet there were no figures to support such argument. In contrary, he said, the BNF continues to grow in membership. He announced that the UDC would soon be housed under one roof after a Good Samaritan offered accommodation at affordable rent. “We remain to opposition unity so we can achieve regime change in our lifetime. The challenges are intense. Everything about the present government has been a monumental failure. Corruption remains rampant and has become institutionalised, with emasculation of all institutions that would otherwise combat it.
This is done with the complicity of the president, in Botswana, the most corrupt and incompetent individual in the history of this country”. Partners in the unity walk, BMD are today anything but a united front and seemed to blame their shaky ground on the umbrella project.
As Boko was speaking in Goodhope, a thousand kilometres away, the BMD was holding its elective congress and the secretary general Gilbert Mangole was quoted as saying they have not been able to recruit members because they focussed on UDC.
These are some of the statements that can be harmful if not interpreted well by the recipients especially when there are some members who still distrust each other. Infact, there are some who say the membership of the two parties suspect each other of trying to swallow the other. If not handled properly, this ‘marriage of convenience’ will struggle to survive the turbulences on the route to 2019. Nonetheless, voters have made it clear that they prefer ‘Moono’ over the individual parties, and indeed Moono is trending right now.
BCP divisions on
opposition cooperation
The Botswana Congress Party, although it has managed to discipline its wayward members is one party that is an endangered species if it continues holding the position that it does not need to cooperate with other opposition parties. One of its stalwarts, James Olesitse, has quit active politics. Others are expected to follow suit in the coming years and the names that immediately come to mind are Vain Mamela, Motsei Rapelana, and other less prominent individuals.
Rammidi Factor
After beating Phillip Monowe for the position of secretary general, Kentse Rammidi now holds a position of influence and stands a good chance to push for opposition cooperation. The majority who voted for him clearly subscribe to opposition unity to unseat the ruling party.
Rammidi is no ordinary Jack! He has served in the BDP for many years, as councillor, then council chairman, assistant minister of local government, and is privy information on opportunities that come with being a party in power. There are limitless opportunities, including powers to create new positions such as that of Prime Minister, ministerial positions, as well as power to create other positions of influence. Rammidi knows, and has seen party loyalists rewarded with golden opportunities after losing primary or general elections. If Rammidi fights for his stance then he will save the BCP to live to fight another day. But the loosing team of Taolo Lucas backed by the wayward Ditimamolelo has not thrown the towel. Not yet. They seem to be ready to fight back and block attempts to BCP negotiating way back to the umbrella project. There are even unconfirmed reports that some prominent members of this group are planning to leave the party if it fails to make concessions for opposition unity, and do the unthinkable – join the BDP.
The role of trade unions
The role played by trade unions, particularly Botswana Federation of Public Sector Unions (BOFEPUSU), in the 2014 general elections, can only be undermined by a fool. However, it should also be noted that BOFEPUSU was fuming at the number of years civil servants have gone without a salary increment, which was the main reason they engaged in the 2011 strike.
The close to 100,000 civil servants were furious at the government and they called for ‘regime change’ during the strike, something they held on until October 2014. The strike was also a fertile ground where the idea of opposition unity was mooted. Although there are no figures to show how many civil servants voted for the UDC, the loss for BCP president, Dumelang Saleshando in Gaborone Central, and the chorus that was sang “Saleshando, dilo o di itirile” can be cited as a clear sign of the dissatisfaction. But things can change in the next three years that can calm their anger, and such include economic growth, government changing attitude towards workers, as well as influential members changing attitude towards the government.
Even possible is for the government or the ruling party apologising to the workers for the pain it has inflicted on them since April 2008. It is not a given that BOFEPUSU will still be angry with the government, especially that their nemesis Khama will be out of the picture, if he decides not to go for a third term.
Bulela Ditswe factor
There is no doubt that the National Assembly is packed with beneficiaries of the skewed BDP’s Bulela Ditswe system, which publicly dismissed winners in favour of candidates preferred by the leadership.
In essence there are about seven opposition MPs who are in the House, courtesy of BDP leadership fixation with kicking out some of its members in preference of others. The party has set up a commission to investigate the system and also pledged to fix the problems.
As months pass, defections and resignations announced, and utterances made - Moono, Kgololo, and A e jeke they should brace themselves for and even tight contest in 2019 and work on ways to convince voters. One thing for a fact, there will be a government and opposition in place.