Molale eyeing the bigger picture in Goodhope-Mabule race?
Ryder Gabathuse | Friday June 5, 2015 17:07
Presidential Affairs and Public Administration Minister Molale is in the race for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) ticket for the recently declared vacant constituency.
The vacancy follows the abrupt resignation of the former Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) MP, James Mathokgwane who has since landed a plum job at SPEDU as one of the directors.
Why MP Molale prefers an elected MP position to what he has in his bag?
Ordinarily, if one is an MP, guaranteed to hold office for five years and enjoying all the benefits and holding a senior Cabinet position, there should be no reason to contest the elected parliamentary seat.
A million pula question, then will be why Molale prefers to run for an elected parliamentary seat?
Well, one perspective may be that Molale may not be sure how the dynamics of the 2018 party primaries will be and believes that he will fare better with the advantages of incumbency.
The other perspective may be that he is considering the party calculus that he may end up being the most suitable candidate for the state vice presidency.
He is therefore trying to remove possible constitutional obstacles from his way to make himself even more eligible to a constituency.
His case is not unprecedented at all. In 2007, Professor Sheila Tlou lost BDP primaries against Master Goya.
Tlou, who was Specially Elected MP and health minister at the time, had ambitions to entrench her shaky political career. She however could not match Goya who won two sets of party primaries.
The by-election for Palapye constituency was created by the departure of Boyce Sebetlela who had dumped politics for greener pastures after getting a plum job with Debswana.
In the case of Tlou, getting an elected constituency would have helped her strengthen her shaky political career, as she was a political green horn on sabbatical from the University of Botswana where she was working at the time.
She was still learning the political ropes when the vacancy emerged in Palapye.
The writing is on the wall that Molale is not merely seeking a substantive parliamentary seat for nothing; his objective is bigger than that.
There is speculation doing the rounds that Molale is eyeing the seat of vice president when the incumbent Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi ascends to the highest office on the land.
A sitting MP can only be appointed to the position of VP if he/she has a substantive parliamentary position. Specially Elected MP Molale is ineligible according to the Botswana Constitution.
The Goodhope-Mabule vacancy is seemingly set to reveal the BDP succession plan, currently shrouded in mystery, when Khama’s second term comes to its end in 2018.
Khama has ensured that there is no ambiguity about his successor when he steps down. His Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi is the heir apparent, unless something drastic happens to alter the plan.
It is however difficult to say precisely whom Masisi will pick as his possible deputy once he becomes state president.
He has been playing his cards very close to his chest.
Between 2018 and the next general elections in 2019, it will generally be a transition period from the Khama era to the Masisi one.
The latter may want to run with one deputy before he appoints the heir apparent in his term proper after the 2019 general elections.
This scenario will be applicable only if the BDP retains power.
Recently, following a compromise deal that saw Minister Tshekedi Khama stepping down from the race for the party chairperson and paving way for Masisi, political commentators felt that Minister Khama, a frontrunner at the time, would be rewarded in future for giving way to Masisi.
In a 28-strong Cabinet, which includes the Permanent Secretary to the President (PSP), Attorney General and eight Assistant Ministers, Molale ranks third.
Upon his retirement from the public service last year, Molale was swiftly made a Specially Elected MP and then appointed to Cabinet.
Newspapers were this week awash with reports that Molale is among a number of ruling BDP aspirants battling for the party ticket ahead of a by-election expected to be held a mandatory 90 days after the resignation of Mathokgwane.
Others are Fankie Motsaathebe, Tuta Orapeleng, Kopo Mononi, Oscar Gaboutloeloe, Piet Orapeleng, Richard Oaitse and Mantsa Sekgororoane.
When quizzed Wednesday about his contestation in the impending by-election in Godhope-Mabule whilst he was already an MP, Molale responded with a well choreographed normal wording of a politician.
“I can only act on the wishes of the Barolong people. If they wish that I contest the by-election then I am in the race.”
He indicated that once he joins the race, “I will inform the Speaker of the National Assembly and take it from there.”
Mmegi further quizzed him on whether acquiring an elected parliamentary seat was precipitated by a need to avail himself for VP nomination in future.
His responded was curt.
“What does that mean? We should not be thinking things that way. I am not like that. That is your speculation and not mine.”
Speaker of the National Assembly, Gladys Kokorwe Molale would have to resign if he seeks elected office.
“Unfortunately, it’s not mentioned anywhere in the parliamentary standing orders. As the Speaker I entirely depend upon standing orders of the House.”
Kokorwe however, explained that a Specially Elected MP cannot contest for the parliamentary by-election whilst a serving MP.
UB law lecturer, Dr. Tachilisa Balule promised to look at the Constitution, “particularly provisions dealing with qualifications for positions of Minister and MP.
“It seems there is no provision that mandates a sitting Specially Elected MP who wishes to stand for a by-election to first step down,” he said.
He added that to him, it is anomalous because it would seem to suggest that if the person who is a sitting specially elected MP loses an election, he/she could just come back and continue as if nothing had happened.
“At the same time, it would also mean that when the MP wins the election, there is no need for him to take an oath as he would already be an MP!”
Political analyst, Anthony Morima said that if indeed the Constitution or any other act of Parliament or Standing Orders is silent on provisions dealing with qualifications from positions of Minister or MP, “we will need to rely on the standard reasonableness of a person and the boni mores (good morals) of the community.”
Morima observed that the ordinary person in the street would expect Molale to resign from his current position in order to contest for the elected parliamentary seat.
“Other than their method of election, the duties of Specially Elected and substantive MP are the same as they enjoy the same rights and privileges.”