FAO predicts 30% drop in maize yield for Botswana
Mbongeni Mguni | Thursday May 7, 2015 16:36
According to the FAO’s early forecast released last week, Botswana could produce 25,000 tonnes of maize this season, down from 35, 000 tonnes the previous harvest.
The figures represent the earliest known indications of crop production for Botswana, in a season which the Agriculture Ministry has already said was characterised by “widespread total crop failure and stunted growth” due to the “prolonged dry spells and heatwaves”.
The Ministry, which estimates that planted hectares dropped 70 percent in the 2014/15 season, is spearheading the production of a drought assessment report to be presented before President Ian Khama soon.
The FAO’s own estimates support government’s preliminary findings of a poor season, with the UN body projecting a regional cereal deficit for this year.
“In Southern Africa, the early forecast of the aggregate 2015 maize production stands at about 21.1 million tonnes or 26 percent below the bumper output in 2014, and 15 percent lower than the average,” the FAO report states.
“The bulk of the decline is mainly due to the significant drop in South Africa, the subregion’s main producer and exporter.
“Lower harvests are also anticipated in Lesotho and Botswana.” According to the FAO, the highest maize production deficits will be experienced in Zimbabwe, with a drop of 35 percent, South Africa and Namibia with a reduction of 33 percent each, Lesotho with a reduction of 30 and Botswana, with a 29 percent drop.
“The decline is largely on account of erratic weather conditions, characterised by a late start of seasonal rains in November/December, flooding in parts in early 2015 and a severe dry spell during February and early March, a critical month for crop growth,” the organisation said.
“In addition, higher temperatures in February further exacerbated the water stress on crops. The bulk of the harvest is expected to occur in May, and despite some improved rainfall in March/April, any significant recovery in production is unlikely.”
Locally, the Botswana Agricultural Marketing Board (BAMB), which manages the national strategic grain reserves, has been quick to allay fears of cereal shortages this year, particularly around the national staple of sorghum.
“In terms of food security, we are more than good. In fact, we have never been better than this year because of the bumper harvest we had last year,” BAMB chief executive officer, Edison Wotho told Mmegi recently.
Wotho said national silos were replete with sorghum and beans, but were softer in maize.
While the BAMB has said it could look to Zambia for imports, the FAO’s report indicates the northern neighbour will face its own supply pressures. “Zambia, the third biggest maize producer of the subregion, is also expecting a reduced output, although production is expected to remain near average, sufficient to cover domestic requirements,” the report states.
The FAO expects Botswana to be the third highest importer of maize in the region, warning that given the contraction in the traditional hub of South Africa, alternative sources may be needed.
“Within the subregion, the outturn in Zambia will be crucial as the surplus held there is estimated at close to 1 million tonnes, following the record 2014 output. A target of nearly 800,000 tonnes is provisionally indicated for export,” the FAO says.