Masisi should Chicken out
Ntibinyane Ntibinyane | Friday April 24, 2015 16:28
Supporters of vice president Mokgweetsi Masisi are said to be lobbying their man behind the scenes to stand for the party’s chairmanship position, but odds are against President Khama’s deputy in the fight for the soul of the ruling party.
While he initially informed his close associates and members of the cabinet that he would not stand for the BDP chairmanship position, he is reportedly not averse to the idea of throwing his hat in the ring. Even at this late hour.
At the centre of the late hour intense lobbying is a lobby group calling itself the Third Force. Tati East Member of Parliament (MP) and businessman Samson Moyo Guma leads the group.
The group wants to sponsor Masisi to fight it out with six other candidates that have already declared their interest in contesting for the position. The candidates are Ramadeluka Seretse, Tebelelo Seretse, Biggie Butale, Dithapelo Tshotlego, Seteng Motalaote and Moemedi Dijeng.
Masisi’s backers appear to have made up their minds, but sources say their man is reluctant to make up his mind.
Despite this, ‘talks’ are on going, one source familiar with the ‘talks’ told this publication recently. Masisi has been having regular meetings with some members of Guma’s lobby team over the issue.
Guma, Gaothaetse Mathabaphiri, and Mpho Balopi are some members of the Third Force who are actively involved in persuading Masisi to stand.
The team wants Masisi to become the party chairman to take control of party structures to consolidate his base to ensure that he succeeds Khama in 2018 without any fuss from senior party members.
Masisi’s supporters feel that it would be suicidal to allow someone other than him to become the party chairman. They say this would create two centres of power, which resultantly would make Masisi’s job difficult.
Unpopular leader
The narrative in the BDP is that Masisi is not a popular leader. The big question is, should he stand or not? What if he stands and loses? According to insiders, if he stands and loses, this will give BDP members ‘confirmation’ that Masisi is a weak and unpopular leader within the party.
The ‘confirmation’ of his unpopularity will be a huge embarrassment to a man who is only three years from ascending the most hallowed office, the presidency. Former President Festus Mogae was unpopular within the BDP structures, but saved his face by avoiding popularity contests, some BDP members argue.
What if he stands and wins? Unless he wins with an overwhelming majority, the party would still be divided if he scrapes through with only a few votes.
One of his supporters believes while it is not possible for him to attain an overwhelming majority, Masisi’s victory would eventually convince BDP and Batswana that he is a well meaning person who can lead the country.
But, is this attainable?
Late entry baggage?
BDP members are convinced that should he declare his interest at this late hour of the campaign, none of the candidates would step aside to allow him to contest the election.
In January this year, one of the contestants, Biggie Butale told Mmegi that he would consider stepping aside to allow Masisi to contest for the position if he were to declare his interest.
Fast forward to April. This week one of his (Butale) aides ruled out the idea saying it is too late to withdraw from the race. Tebelelo Seretse and Ramadeluka Seretse have also previously indicated that they would not make way for anyone including Masisi.
Failure to get support or even an endorsement from some of the candidates could expose Masisi’s weakness as a leader who has neither the sophistication nor the charisma to unite the party around him.
“Under normal circumstances, BDP members would have allowed the so-called heir-apparent to ascend to the position without any major opposition, more so that the party did not do well in the last (general) election,” an MP against Masisi’s candidature says.
Wrong crowd
Vice President Masisi is hanging with the wrong crowd; this is the sentiment coming from BDP members. Sources are saying his handlers are members of the discredited Third Force.
The man lobbying Masisi to stand is Guma, former BDP chairman who was previously accused of rigging the 2013 Bulela Ditswe primaries in favour of his preferred candidates.
Guma denied the allegations as false, and resigned from the chairmanship of the party to clear his name. Though he has maintained his innocence, some BDP members still blame Guma for their losses at the BDP primaries and general elections.
Another member of the group Mpho Balopi is blamed for party’s poor performance at the 2014 polls. As the secretary general Balopi was at the heart of the BDP’s general elections campaign.
For many BDP supporters Matlhabaphiri is a spent force that does not have a future in the contemporary politics. Despite this, Mathabaphiri wants to take over from Mpho Balopi as the party’s secretary general
Khama’s endorsement?
It remains to be seen whether Masisi would get the endorsement of President Khama should he decide to stand. It is unlikely. Some BDP members are saying that Khama may not want to endorse anyone in the chairmanship race let alone a not so convincing Vice President.
They say he learned a lesson in the 2009 Kanye conference, where he endorsed a losing team. Those pushing Masisi are however convinced that Khama would not want to ditch his heir apparent.
They use the 2002 Khama Versus Kedikilwe contest as a case in point. Then, Mogae publicly backed his deputy (Khama) ahead of the incumbent party chairperson Ponatshego Kedikilwe. Khama went on to win the party chairmanship.
Masisi is not Khama his critics say. “Is he someone that Khama can back all the way? Mogae knew then that his number one guy was going to win nonetheless. Khama cannot say the same about Masisi,” says a BDP regional chairperson.
Chicken Out
What should Masisi do? Chicken out! Yes. Chicken out. Perhaps this is the best thing that Masisi and his aides should seriously consider. Masisi should emulate former president Festus Mogae.
The former president shied away from an open contest for positions within the BDP and yet he later led the party. Of course the circumstances are different but it is worth a try.
A former BDP MP’s advice for Masisi is that he should stay away from competing for the chairmanship position.
In fact he advises that he should publicly announce that he has no interest whatsoever in standing for any party position. Masisi, the former MP advises, should act as a unifier and work harder on winning support of all the BDP camps.