Election hot spots
Ryder Gabathuse | Thursday October 23, 2014 16:59
Nata Gweta
Although the BDP has always controlled the constituency, the BCP, which has been making great strides, may just pull a mighty surprise. The BDP candidate, Paulson Majaga is very popular, but so is the BCP flag bearer, Ditiro Mojadiboda. The constituency could go either way.
Tati West
This is one is difficult to call. However, Reverend Biggie Butale of the BDP may squeeze through, considering the strong presence of both the BCP and UDC. The BCP is represented by Dr Philip Bulawa who has entrenched himself among the dominant Bakalaka in the area. Richard Gudu of the UDC has a long history in the constituency. He is one of the two most prominent BPP leaders working with the UDC. He is considered a local boy and most likely a darling of the people. Then there is Farai Bunyongo. Though he an independent candidate, he poses a serious challenge.
Francistown West
The winner in this constituency in the last two elections was not really the BDP, but the late Tshelang Masisi. Prior to his arrival, the area was a BNF and BPP stronghold. The Masisi factor may just work for Ignatius Moswaane of the BDP who has always aligned himself with the late legislator. The man is also a hard-worker although his behaviour may work against him. The BCP snatched the constituency through Dr Habaudi Hubona in a by-election after Masisi’s death, mainly due to the BDP’s squabbling. The BCP incumbent may still pull through again as she has proven to be a great asset to Parliament with her intellect and grasp of issues. The UDC’s Shathiso Tambula will find the going really tough.
Francistown South
The BCP and the BDP have been the two major parties in the constituency. In the last elections, the BDP, then represented by Wynter Mmolotsi, currently of the UDC got 4,024 votes while BCP’s Vain Mamela received 3,546. The BNF had less than 300 votes. Mmolotsi is a hard worker and in touch with people but is this enough in Botswana politics? The constituency is a difficult one to predict.
Palapye
This remains a BDP stronghold but James Olesitse of the BCP has made major inroads. In the 2009 elections, the difference between Master Goya of BCP and Olesitse was only 1,380 votes. The margin may mean nothing considering that the number of people who registered has risen to just over 15,000 from about 9,000 in the last elections. The constituency could go either way.
Gaborone–Bonnington South
The battle is really between two former comrades, Botsalo Ntuane of BDP and UDC’s Ndaba Gaolathe. Despite his soft spoken nature, Gaolathe is a born leader and master strategist who radiates warmth. Being the deputy president of a serious contender in the UDC makes him formidable. The media has given him much coverage due to his position in the party. He is even emblazoned on the party’s four buses. He is the first politician to launch countrywide. He has done a lot of work and has entrenched himself in the area especially among the youth. His humility and simplicity is a huge bonus to his campaign.
Ntuane is streetwise and would have adequately prepared for a win. His ‘ricocheting’ from the BMD back to the BDP may just cost him. Many from both the BDP and BMD would not have forgiven him for his political gymnastics. The other undoing is his failure to deliver and to be close to the people. In the five years that he has been MP, he has hardly been active in the area. The BDP leadership does not appear to be very fond of him and that may work against him.
Gaborone-Bonnington North
Duma Boko’s appeal owing to the fact that he is the UDC president, a well known lawyer and human rights activist of international repute immediately places him a notch higher than his opponents. His ability to make friends with international personalities such as Rick Yune, Bill Clinton and former Bulgarian president, Petar Stoyanov is an asset to his party. Boko is also strategic, and knows how to appeal to different levels of society.
Anna Motlhagodi has worked the constituency more than any other candidate. But owing to the fact that she is campaigning against a high profile, more visible candidate in Boko, she may find herself at a disadvantage. However, she has entrenched herself in the constituency. The battle can go either way between her and Boko.
The BDP’s Robert Masitara has brought brilliant motions while in Parliament, but he could not make any impact because he is not a favourite of the BDP leadership. In the current electioneering, he is the most disadvantaged because of party squabbling in the constituency. The party could not even launch him on time.
Mochudi West
Unity Dow finds herself in the most unenviable position of being blamed for singularly betraying bogosi jwa Bakgatla and specifically Kgosi Kgafela Kgafela. Hers is a lost cause. This is one area where the BMD can claim to have done serious damage to the BDP. Past immediate MP, Gilbert Mangole of the UDC enjoys tremendous youth support. Incidentally, the majority of the young people here were formerly BDP cadres. Mangole is also known as a stanch bogosi and Kgosi Kgafela Kgafela supporter. This will surely work in his favour. The BCP’s Alfred Pilane is really an underdog and very little is known about him.
Thamaga-Kumakwane
While the area has historically been a BDP stronghold, internal feuds may tip it in favour of UDC. The BDP candidate, Tshenolo Mabeo, an underdog in the party primaries surprised all when he beat cabinet minister Reverend John Seakgosing and President Ian Khama’s favourite, Driver Motlokwa. Strong Seakgosing supporters have said they will either boycott elections or vote for the opposition. This may give the vote to Kopanao Rannatshe of the UDC.
Gabane-Mmankgodi
The real contest is between UDC and BCP. The Bahurutshe of Mankgodi would be itching to punish the BDP for denying the village development and failing to give it recognition as a major tribal and geographical entity. Owing to its close proximity to Gaborone, Gabane would have a lot of opposition supporters. In particular the UDC, represented by former commander of BDF ground forces, Major General Pius Mokgware finds itself in a strong position owing to the large presence of the military men in the village. Of his opponents, a very streetwise and well-informed Mozambia Dibe of BCP is generally loved by voters in the constituency.
But the BDP’s Lesedi Mmusi comes out as the weakest with little appreciation of the challenges in the area. Failure by the BDP to address the land issue is a major electioneering issue in the constituency.
Molepolole North
A key factor here is the personal sacrifice and hard work of the UDC candidate, Mohammed Khan. ‘Puo Phaa’ as Khan is affectionately known ensured the BNF’s growth even during the party’s trying times. The man has developed personal trust with Bakwena. Though of Asian extraction, he is a Mokwena through and through. A bonus to Khan is the fact that the BCP has consistently urged its supporters in the area to vote for him.
The BDP’s Gaotlhaetse Matlhabaphiri will have to contend with the fact that his party has failed to develop Molepolole. With a population of 77,000, the Bakwena capital still has one old senior secondary school, one old police station among the many signs of retarded development. It has acute water shortage and unemployment and poverty are widespread. Divisions within the BDP and palpable anger of public servants may greatly harm Matlhabaphiri’s chances.
Tlokweng
The BDP has effectively handed this one to the UDC. This is one area that has experienced the worst of the BDP factional wars. The current MP, Olebile Gaborone won the seat in 2009 on a BNF ticket with a very slim margin, beating his current nemesis in the BDP, Elijah Katse. After Gaborone crossed to the BDP, he contested and lost the primaries against Katse. But Khama recalled Katse as a candidate and replaced him with Gaborone. Katse, along with a host of his supporters expressed their displeasure and were suspended from the party. They went to court and lost because the President cannot be sued. Although the BDP has been trying throughout this week to save the situation, indications are that it is too late. The divisions remain pronounced and the unhappy faction will either stay away or vote for the UDC’s Same Bathobakae.
Kanye North
In 2009, Kentse Rammidi, then a BDP candidate did the unimaginable when he wrestled the constituency from long time occupants the BNF. That earned him high respect with the BDP and soon the fiery Rammidi was made assistant minister. He was even BDP secretary general for a brief period before he decamped to BNF after he clashed with Khama. He did not stay in BDP for long, leaving again for the BCP. The last defection may prove to be his undoing. Being a BCP candidate, he is working against the tide, for the BCP has no real presence in the area. The return of Bangwaketse royalty in the race through the UDC’s Kwenantle Gaseitsewe has aroused old sentiments around the late Bangwaketse and BNF founding president Kgosi Bathoeng Gaseitsewe. Kwenantle is a nephew of Bathoengs and history has shown that Batswana voters are fond of their dikgosi. The BDP has a slim chance of winning the constituency.