Is Khama thriving on VP uncertainty?
Thalefang Charles | Friday October 17, 2014 17:22
For the first time since the amendment of the Constitution in 1997 to introduce the automatic succession clause, the ruling party under President Ian Khama goes into this year’s general elections without a running mate. This is a person who, if the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) wins neaxt Friday’s general elections, will ultimately succeed Khama in four years time when he steps down from the presidency.
While the automatic succession dispensation was created under Sir Ketumile Masire to ward off uncertainty as to who would succeed the president, it now appears like under Khama there is uncertainty as to who will eventually replace him in April 2018 when his 10-year tenure comes to an end. The ruling BDP goes into next weeks general elections riding on the clout of only one person – President Khama and no one else.
According to observers Khama may have deliberately created this uncertainty for several reasons; to make sure that he remains the party’s focal point and tightens his grip on the party and also basically to apply the ‘divide and rule tactic’.
This is a clear sign that Khama doesn’t want attention to shift away from him. President Khama possibly wants to remain the sole strongman within the party and the country.
“This is the unprogressive status that was mentioned by US President Barack Obama on his first visit to Africa when he said, ‘Africa doesn’t need strongmen, it needs strong institutions’.
“The BDP is still banking on using political demagogue strategy to win elections,” one observer commented.
Other party leaders have since unveiled their running mates. Umbrella Democratic Change President Duma Boko’s running mate is Ndaba Gaolathe while Botswana Congress Party President Dumelang Saleshando has chosen Kesitegile Gobotswang as his running mate.
Interestingly Khama’s predecessor Festus Mogae made it known from the start that when he brought the former to politics it was for him to take over, to the chagrin of others within the party. In 1999 and 2004 Khama was Mogae’s running mate. The question is why is Khama not doing the same.
Carrot and stick approach
Political analyst Anthony Ndulamo Morima has an answer to this. He believes that Khama has taken a different approach, classical carrot and stick approach. The president is using the ‘lucrative’ and ‘powerful’ VP position as the carrot that he is dangling to BDP members while keeping everyone in strict orders to tow the line and worship him.
“The President wants to keep everyone loyal to him with the expectation that they may be the chosen ones,” said Morima.
He noted that when people are not certain of who the leader’s choice is, they would all dance to his tune and obey instructions.
“This is a strategy by the President to continue his solo stronghold on the BDP by thriving on uncertainty. He knows that if he had announced his running mate, he would have caused few upsets and disappointments and halved his diehards within the BDP,” said Morima.
Morima is also of the view that the President could be using the ‘strongman’ approach to quell factions within the BDP. The party has a history of warring factions and even Khama was a result of a factional remedy by Mogae. He was brought in as strategy suggested by the late South African academic Lawrence Schelmmer to kill the factions that threatened to break the party post Masire’s presidency.
“The President is aware that his choice of VP will not be welcomed by everyone in the ruling party. So he knows the danger of making a such a crucial decision before this yearís closely contested elections,” he said.
Morima said the BDP strategy of rallying behind Khama’s strength could be beneficial for the BDP because if he avoids factions and having disgruntled members he can survive the elections. He, however, added that the benefit could only be short-term. “This cannot be good for the people in general nor for the democracy because it weakens the organisation,” said the analyst.
Third term motive?
Other observers said this could be the end of the BDP. Khama will have only four years to groom his successor. But he has made himself the oxygen that BDP breathes. “This might be long-term sinister strategy to get BDP members to call for constitutional amendment to give Khama a third term in the office because the party cannot survive without him,” opined one observer.
In 2008 when Khama moved to the State House he chose his aging former boss in the army Lieutenant General Mompati Merafhe as vice president in a move that was widely viewed as an appeasement.
It was therefore unsurprising that Khama added a “but” to the appointment of Merafhe saying the old general would not be the next president because he would appoint another VP before the 2009 elections. This was another tactic by Khama to create the uncertainty about his successor and wield the whole power onto himself, observers say.
Ponatshego Kedikilwe, another veteran politician on his way out of politics was given a taste of the vice presidency in 2012 following the retirement of Merafhe from politics due to ill health. Kedikilwe will not be available in the 11th parliament and everyone is watching the poker faced Khama on his choice of vice president.