The slipstream of economic progression
Mbongeni Mguni | Friday October 17, 2014 15:12
All eyes are on the 11th National Development Plan and if they are not, they should be.
The Plan, to run from 2016/17 to 2021/22 represents a glimmer of hope for thousands of Batswana who hitherto have been left behind by the country’s economic miracle, which began in the 1950s with the discovery of small, shiny stones in the Motloutse River.
According to researchers, the rapid growth of the economy from when the spade first hit the ground at Orapa Mine in 1971, has inefficiently been transmitted throughout the various socio-economic tiers.
This inefficiency has meant that the economic miracle brought by first, diamonds and later, coal mining, has also disrupted the near egalitarian society of the 1960s, created widening inequality and birthed a wealth class structure.
Simply put, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened over the years and the World Bank presently ranks Botswana among the world’s most unequal economies.
Most disturbingly for researchers, who include those in think-tanks at Statistics Botswana and the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA), stubborn pockets of poverty in areas such as Ngamiland West and Ngwaketse West have defied all poverty eradication schemes and policies.
In these areas, standards of living that citizens elsewhere across the country take for granted, are a luxury or an aspiration. These citizens, through a conspiracy of historical, geographic and possibly political factors, have fallen through the mesh of government safety nets over the nets and have the blackest faces in the economic slipstream.
The last Botswana Core Welfare Indicators Survey conducted in 2009/10, found that nearly half of the population in these two constituencies was living below the poverty datum, compared to a national average of 19.3 percent.
For the residents of these areas, NDP 11 represents fresh start for greater inclusion in the country’s economic miracle and a shot at achieving what others across the country see as normal.
A keynote policy paper, representing the first major input into NDP 11 preparations, has placed a premium on economic inclusion and the eradication of pockets of poverty and their spectrum of manifestations, such as unemployment.
“A major challenge to be tackled in NDP 11 is how the country can achieve inclusive growth,” reads the paper.
“There are three dimensions to inclusive growth which include the need to enlarge the size of the economy and provide protection for the disadvantaged and marginalised groups from adverse shocks.”
Two “Thematic Working Group” within the NDP 11’s vast think tank will focus specifically on how the next planning period will raise those citizens left behind in the first diamond-led economic miracle into the second wave.
The working groups on Economy and Employment, as well as Social Upliftment have been tasked with ensuring greater economic inclusion from 2016/17 going forward.
“The group on Economy and Employment will play a leading role in proposing innovative policies and strategies to promote economic growth accompanied by the creation of employment opportunities, resulting in the reduction of poverty, and income inequality,” reads the keynote paper.
“Similarly, the group on Social Upliftment will be expected to review and propose innovative initiatives to ensure social inclusion and equal access to economic opportunities by all segments of the population and regions of the country.
“In addition, social safety nets, to protect the poor and vulnerable groups against risks associated with inter-temporal or permanent socio-economic shocks will be reviewed and streamlined not only to improve on their efficacy, but also to ensure their sustainability.”
The technocrats at the Ministry of Finance, who crafted the keynote paper, believe the inequality that accompanied the economic miracle of the past decades was largely because mining, unlike agriculture, was more capital and less labour intensive.
Still, they say, the development model adopted allowed the establishment of economic pillars that have led growth to this point, such as the growth of sectors such as finance, manufacturing and the enhancement of labour and skills availability.The technocrats see NDP 11 as an opportunity for a new model of development.
“This is an opportunity to address the persistent challenges of unemployment, poverty, income inequality, as well as transform the country from middle to high income category,” the paper says, adding that, “More robust and innovative policy initiatives are required.”
Within the residents of Ngamiland West, Ngwaketse West and other poverty niches countrywide looking at NDP 11 with hope, research at BIDPA indicates that the youth should be given first priority.
A BIDPA analysis of the 2002/03 and 2009/10 core welfare studies notes that age brings gains in household welfare and negatively relates to poverty.
“The relationship between age and poverty or welfare is non-linear, implying that poverty is relatively higher at young ages, decreases at middle ages and then increases again at old ages,” reads the study released this week.
“Therefore, poverty reduction strategies should target those households headed by young individuals or the elderly, since they are among the most vulnerable groups.”
In addition, BIDPA’s researchers note that poverty rates are higher in female headed houses, implying higher rates among children who are most likely to be found in such households as opposed to male headed homes.
“This underlines the importance of further studies to ascertain the extent, level and many dimensions of female poverty in Botswana, to further provide information for formulating anti-poverty strategies targeting vulnerable female populations,” reads the study.
While the brainstorming continues towards NDP 11 will likely see conflict and division within the planning process, the poorest in Botswana can at least be assured that there is consensus around their Upliftment from the bottom of the barrel.