Will there be outright victory or hung parliament�..?
Michael Dingake | Tuesday October 14, 2014 08:00
All contestants project themselves as prospective winners. Dead heat isn’t speculated. Or is it? Let us politely ignore the 29 party-less independents though each fancies himself/herself victorious. Let’s stay with party-contested seats. There’s 57 constituencies! Divide 57 by three, get 19! That could be a spectacular result: fantastic dead heat implying no party qualifies to form government; alternatively none of the parties winning outright simple majority! Hung parliament would result, compelling any of the two parties to negotiate government of national unity (GNU). Objectively, how does ‘As I See It,’ see it? ‘As I See It,’ will try to make an objective analysis undeterred by the plausibility of respective party stalwarts and pundits accusing column of subjectivity. Here we go:
On the face of it, the BDP with its debilitating baggage of misrule should be ruled out of victory. Imagine voters voting for a party creaking and croaking under the burden of so numerous indictments: Corruption allegations, state enterprises startling mismanagement, corrupt awarding of business tenders, endemic instability manifested in the primary elections battles and leakages of state secrets, spooky petition attempts to win by-electio, two former presidents breaking ranks with party to punch holes in the current party administration, terror tactics applied against the opposition and the media obviously to intimidate the public to reject the opposition!
In parliament the BDP has had guts to reject popular legislation: Freedom of Information, Declaration of Assets and Liabilities, Public funding of political parties laws. What more can a regime do to deserve relegation? BDP is past its sell by date. In a normal democracy where citizens know their rights and prepared to defend these, BDP cannot win.
Nonetheless BDP is tipped to win! The opinion is shared by Batswana across the social spectrum. BDP is well -resourced: it exploits and enjoys incumbency factor, squeezes campaign donations from business sector, enjoys enormous goodwill from foreign investors; besides, BDP according to reliable sources contemplates rigging in the circumstances. BDP hasn’t convincingly rebutted the rigging allegations. To cap it all, BDP enjoys slavish allegiance from the rural population, despite its perceptible deficiencies. President Khama charms the masses by his walkabouts, distributes blankets, radios to the oldies, sweets to kids, goats to remote villagers, ladles soup served with diphaphatha (home-made scones) to village nobodies, shakes trembling hands thrust forward to touch his presidential hand! For these reasons, the president and his party looms invincible.
Observers agree. At some point President Khama oozed utter confidence to an extent he bragged prospects of winning all 57 constituencies! Something cautioned him against over-enthusiasm. He now begs voter sympathy, insinuating his party NEEDS to be returned to power, because the opposition threatens to imprison him and drive Batswana into exile should it win! He doesn’t say why he’s imprisonment suspect in the eyes of the opposition nor does he give example of a whole population electing exile after a democratic change of government. ‘
BCP has potential to win the coming general elections. The party appears to be the most stable of the three parties. With over 200,000 verifiable registered members, it’s strong runner in the race depending on quality of membership. Membership quality in Botswana political parties has still to be ascertained. From personal experience as political activist, I have made a sobering discovery: An average Motswana with political affiliation, has a second or third membership of another party(ies)! Morale? Few Batswana are committed party members. Most join political parties to please friends/relatives or to hedge their bets, so to speak. Political consciousness and commitment is still low. One can never be certain how an average Motswana will vote! Numerical party strength is somewhat slightly bogus! Motswana as a voter is selfish, parasitic, vague, half-committed to party ideals, short on self-sacrifice and poor on time-keeping! BCP has to wriggle out of these constraints to become an outright potential winner; admittedly decisive resources constraint has still to be addressed to have parties compete on a level playing field!
Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) is the new kid on the block, inexperienced and untested. From UDC spokespersons at press conferences, public rallies, private and social media, the UDC has almost written itself off from the finishing line, by harping futilely on the BCP missing link in the coalition. BCP ‘pulled out’ of the Umbrella, blah, blah! So, since the BCP doesn’t look like ‘pulling in,’ anytime before 24/10/2014, the UDC‘s fate is precarious. Besides, the admission, the UDC has still to coalesce properly to win elections. Three ideological strands: social democracy, liberal democracy and nationalism bedevil the coalition. Furthermore, one of the major components, the BNF is riddled by dissident elements within its ranks.
The coalition hangs on the party spin to win sympathy votes: BCP ‘pull out’ and BOFEPUSU expected punishment of the uncooperative BCP. It’s misguided! An attempt to de-campaign rival BCP might end up de-campaigning UDC itself. First it’s untrue, the BCP never ‘pulled out. ’ Second, asking BOFEPUSU to punish BCP may boomerang, since BCP has strong presence in BOFEPUSU as evidenced by a former top leader of the Federation standing as BCP candidate in Maun West constituency and president of BOFEPUSU distancing the Federation from mischief of ‘punishing’ BCP! Be that as it may, UDC is still a strong contender in the race, albeit excluded from the finishing line. Impressive launch of the UDC president in Gaborone proved the potential influence the UDC wields in the final outcome of elections. Hung parliament, smelling!