Above normal rainfall for Oct-December
Mpho Mokwape | Tuesday September 2, 2014 13:18
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), says in its latest report this will be mainly due to the El Niño phenomenon that is expected to increase as the year progresses towards the end and into another, where parts of the Southern Africa region will have a 50 percent likelihood of below-average rainfall, which means planting for the main agricultural season might be affected.
However, luckily for Botswana it has in the past had above-normal rainfall during around four out of 10 El Niños, which means its impact may not be highly felt on rainfall totals at least for October to December.
IRI states there is an elevated chance for an El Niño event to develop between August and October 2014 and continue through early 2015. The predictions were sourced from the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2014 Report.
The report says historically, El Niño raises chances of receiving below-average rainfall during the main crop-growing season in southern Africa. However, the report also states that even El Niño affects the amount of rainfall in the region it equally affects not all locations. “The most common impact of an El Niño is reduced rainfall during the main December to March crop-growing season in southern Africa.
Areas most frequently affected by below-average rainfall are situated along a belt that extends from southern/central Mozambique in the east and stretches westwards to Namibia, as well as the western half of South Africa. Conversely, the northeastern and western parts of the region are more likely to receive above-average rainfall from October to December during an El Niño,” stated the report.
The report further states that on average, reduced rainfall during an El Niño occurred more frequently than this in a few areas including southern Mozambique, northern South Africa, eastern Zimbabwe, northern Namibia, and northern Botswana.
Analysis of crop water balance models suggests that below-average rainfall during El Niños is likely to result in reduced crop yields during the main agricultural season.
The Department of Metereologicals Services in Gaborone was not in a position to corroborate the IRI forecast.
MEANWHILE LATEST LEVELS FOR BOTSWANA'S
MAJOR DAMS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
Gaborone Dam 9.4%
Molatedi Dam 28.4%(25th Aug 2014)
Bokaa Dam 35.6%
Nnywane Dam 53.5%
Letsibogo Dam 77.5%
Shashe Dam 82.7%
Ntimbale Dam 90.3%(29th Aug 2014)
Dikgatlhong Dam 93.6%
Lotsane Dam 82.3%
Thune Dam 52.0%(28th Aug 2014)