BDP on slippery ground
Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Tuesday August 12, 2014 13:40
A Mmegi analysis shows that the BDP might be safe in only 27 of the constituencies they won in the last general elections.
In the 2009 general elections, of the 45 constituencies the ruling party won, 18 of them were by a slim margin, according to an Independent Electoral Commission report.
For the BDP to remain in power, it must win 29 constituencies or more.
The 18 constituencies include Tati West, Francistown East, Francistown South, Bobirwa, Selibe-Phikwe East, Tswapong south, Shoshong, South East South, Mogoditshane, Kweneng South East, Letlhakeng East, Letlhakeng West, Gaborone North, Gaborone South, Gaborone West North, Molepolole North, Francistown South, Boteti North and Kgatleng West.
In 2009, the opposition won 11, eight of them with a tight margin. Gaborone Central, Okavango and Kgatleng East are the only three constituencies that the opposition hada much greater margin against the BDP.
BDP campaign manager, Alec Seametso, however insisted that the ruling party was poised to increase the margin where it previously won with difficulty.
“We are going to win this elections with a bigger margin, even in constituencies where we hadn’t done well in the 2009 elections. Remember, our target as a party is to win all 57 constituencies.
“As I speak, we are on the ground explaining to people the importance of voting BDP. We are correcting what we could have done wrong in 2009,” Seametso said.
He said they are getting a positive response from people from their house-to-house campaigns.
Seametso said they will double their effort in constituencies that are currently held by the opposition parties to ensure that they win them back.
And they have realised that some of their members in 2009 did not vote because they were at the lands ploughing.
“We have kept a data base of our members and it will help us to trace them to know where they are,” he said.
University of Botswana political analyst, Leonard Sesa believes the BDP will win the elections but with a lower number of constituencies.
“I think from the 18 constituencies they won with a slim margin, they might be able to retain nine or less.
The opposition parties are also targeting those constituencies. Anything is possible and we should not be shocked by the outcome of the results,” Sesa said.
He said political environment has also changed since 2009 to date.
This is how the BDP performed in 2009 in those 18 constituencies
Tati West
BDP 4,277
BPP 3,471
BAM 489
Francistown East
BDP 3,698
BPP 113
BCP 3,130
Bobirwa
BDP 5,899
BCP 5,059
Selibe-Phikwe East
BDP 3,717
BCP 3,170
BNF 701
IND 135
Tswapong South
BDP 5,183
BCP 4,175
BNF 750
Shoshong
BDP 4,820
BNF 3,203
BCP 750
Letlhakeng East
BDP 3,992
BNF 3,967
Letlhakeng West
BDP 3,826
BNF 3,792
South East South
BDP 6,084
BCP 5,739
BNF 762
IND 117
Boteti North
BDP 4,790
BNF 3,748
BCP 459
Kgatleng West
BDP 5, 493
BNF 4,817
BCP 2,672
IND 565
Gaborone North
BDP 3,741
BCP 3,498
BNF 1,726
Gaborone South
BDP 2,853
BNF 2,361
BCP 1,726
Gaborone West North
BDP 5,814
BCP 4,227
BNF 3,227
MELS 49
Mogoditshane
BDP 3,525
BCP 2,570
BNF 1,865
IND 314
MELS 85
IND 28
Kweneng South East
BDP 5,415
BCP3, 602
BNF 1,758
Francistown South
BDP 4,0 24
BCP3, 546
BPP 289
BNF 280
Molepolole North
BDP 5,595
BNF 4,914
BCP 271
Kanye North
BDP 7,004
BNF 5,601
BCP 309