Opposition fancies unseating BDP

Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Wednesday August 6, 2014 16:48

 

In their electioneering messages across the many launches and platforms, the two parties assure their supporters that this is the year to end, through the ballot, the Botswana Democratic Party’s 48 years of power.

The BCP has set a target of 29 parliamentary seats, the figure to give it the power to govern and UDC says realistically, there will pull 25 seats. The BDP on the other hand it is targeting all the 57 constituencies, a 100 percent sweep at the polls. 

But the opposition has an uphill battle.

In the 2009 general elections, out of the 57 constituencies, the opposition, in BCP and Botswana National Front, which is now part of the coalition of the UDC, won only 11. Of these, eight were won by a smaller margin.

The opposition won with bigger margins in Gaborone Central, Okavango and Kgatleng East.

The BDP won 45 seats, Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM) one, Botswana Congress Party (BCP) four and Botswana National Front six. One seat went to Member of Parliament for Lobatse Nehemiah Modubule who contested the elections as an independent candidate.

Out of 489 council seats, the opposition won only 149. The BDP had won 332, BNF 71, BCP 69, Botswana People Party (BPP) three, BAM six and independents eight.

Fearing the opposition threat, the BDP has invested heavily in campaigns with the aim of winning all the constituencies, while the opposition with its limited resources is hard working towards increasing their numbers in both Parliament and councils.

The BCP spokesperson Taolo Lucas said a lot has happened since 2009 and Batswana had trust that their lives would change after Ian Khama took over.

“Since Khama has failed to improve the situation of high unemployment rate and poverty, I do not think Batswana can gamble again by voting the BDP. Workers have also suffered a lot since the government has been refusing to listen to them. Opposition parties will increase its margin come elections,” Taolo said.

He said they would be surprises in these elections, as opposition parties will be winning unexpected constituencies. He said Batswana are now tired of the way the BDP is doing things especially corruption cases.

But political analyst at University of Botswana (UB) professor Zibani Maudeni does not believe any of the three parties would likely to win enough seats to form government.

“The leading party is likely to win less than 40 percent of the seats. Alternatively, each of the three parties is likely to win 33 percent of the seats. A coalition government is likely to be the outcome. I wish there could be funding to carry out a poll to test the strength of each party,” Maudeni said.

He said the strength of the BDP has never been tested after its split in 2009.

Constituencies won by opposition in the last elections are as follows:

 

* Tlokweng

BNF 3,824

BDP 3,807

BCP 1,475

 

Kanye South

BNF 5,303

BDP 4,716

BCP 632

Jwaneng-Mabutshane

BNF 7,765

BDP 7,283

BCP 632

 

Kgalagadi North

BNF 4,871

BDP 4,866

 

Kgalagadi South

BNF 4,595

BDP 4,451

Selibe-Phikwe West

BCP 3,997

BDP 3,323

BNF 1,076

 

Ngami

BAM 6,836

BDP 5,565

BNF 494

IND 219

 

Chobe

BCP 3,322

BDP 3,057

BNF 131

Kgatleng East

BNF 6,768

BDP 5,101

BCP 3,894

 

Okavango

BCP 6,211

BDP 4,309

Gaborone Central

BCP 6,102

BDP 2,361

BNF 1,118