Can these Mekoko hurt Domkrag?

Lawrence Ookeditse | Wednesday April 16, 2014 12:20

There is no denying that some people have chosen to go independent. My count ends on one hand-no more than five independents from the BDP for parliament. Then there are scores of councillors. Councillors matter but they are not the core of what leads to the formation of a government; yes, they do contribute immensely to who the ultimate winner is thus matter but I will focus on MPs for they matter in a more immediate way.

The BDP has had a popular vote that has fallen from the 70 percentages to now the lower 50 percentages. The trend over time is one of general decline. The past general election saw an increase by just about 1 percept but that did not reverse what has been a trend of decline in any significant way. This is worry number one.

The BDP has however enjoyed unbridled majority in terms of seats in parliament. This is courtesy of a simple majority system that does not take into account a party’s popular vote. This is good news number one. Off to the worries first.

The number of independents running for parliament who see themselves as fed up with the BDP ought to worry the party on the popular vote/ this is why: a single person, five people, 20 people, a hundred people and so on choosing to leave the party means its popular vote will reduced by that same number. An MP does not own people yes, but he has family, friends and sympathizers. If those decide, as they often do, to go with their man-it is usually man- then that would mean the party’s popular vote will be affected. Certainly there are people who voted for Pono Moatlhodi because he is Pono Moatlhodi. Such votes will be lost. That affects the popular vote.

But wait a minute, there is actually a huge positive that comes with this development. The departure of the Deputy also means Thapelo Olopeng will bring his own supporters- and these are more likely to be younger people who before his entrance into politics were not interested. Meanwhile, he is likely to find most of the elderly BDP support base intact. That therefore means the impact of the numbers that will follow Moatlhodi would easily be eased by the new numbers that Olopeng would bring. This is logical, it will of course turn empirical only after the general election but thus far this is simple logic. Hon. Moatlhodi might actually not be missed; my logic suggests he will not be missed.

Opportunity to weed out Entitlement: this is an important factor given that it seems to be something that has entered the national psyche, more so within the party itself. People feel by virtue of longevity or having been there first they have some form of entitlement. That’s wrong and Bulela Ditswe has since shaken a few people out of such comfort zones. This is something to be happy about.

It affords the organization a chance to forge a new form, a new soul, telos, that will allow it to rebirth itself. Let’s be honest, the BDP has over the years become an archaic machine that desperately needed renewing. That was never going to be easy given the resistance you’d expect from the vanguard that has always been there. They would resist and they are resisting but the party is breaking away from their shackles. This is a good thing; younger cadres must now take the torch, and prove more relevant to current circumstances, because they are and the elderly mostly are not. This is a great opportunity for the party; question is, will the party see the opportunity and will it act on it?

The second worry: the BDP will have negative publicity from such departures thus lose votes. Well this is a possibility. The possibility exists especially among swing voters who usually sit on the fence and decide to vote on the basis of which party appears most stable and will be able to bring about stability in government. Such people are those who are not politically aligned. The battle for such will be tough. But also consider that the UDC/BNF divisions and conflicts are legendary, and still raging. The nature of the problem, and noise there, actually may eclipse the one at the BDP.

Thus this does not automatically result in hurt for the BDP. The BCP by and large remains balkanized into certain pockets of the country, and you realize the impact might not be so huge- especially given that the independents are largely people who lost primary elections, not people who are dissatisfied with the principles of the party-those are at the BMD- those are the folks that left on principle, and not being sulky for losing electoral contests.  Also, people here forget really quick- and the election is six months away, six months is a long time in this part of the continent.

In the end, the BDP should be very worried about chirping away of its popular vote- and the eventuality of governing with a popular vote that is less than 50 percept. That should be worrisome because the legitimacy of such government would remain questionable, and such governments are prone to instability- the Italians are a case in point. You do not want to rule a people when less than half of them want you to govern them. Besides, a fall in the popular vote like that would eventually result in a fall in the number of seats in parliament, the First Past The Post effect can only go so far.

Lucky for the BDP, the spatial distribution of such resignations do not demonstrate a pattern that would lead to losses in its strongholds-Hon Pheto’s constituency aside, I do not see the BDP losing at any place because there is an independent candidate-Gaborone Central I will not include for the BDP, given past results, is coming in out from the cold. A bit of hurt will occur, but these are far from being a fatal blow- and honestly, I have no sympathy for people who have been there since 1984- when I was one year old and still sulk at losing an election. This here is loads of noise, less substance and I have my doubts on the noise turning into substance.