Ukraine: It�s not over until it�s over!
Richard Moleofe | Friday February 28, 2014 15:25
After President Viktor Yanukovich fled the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and the crowds of protesters went home after a thrilling and rousing speech by Yulia Tymoshenko, most thought that it was all over. From the current events taking place right now, it seems in Ukraine it is never over until it really is over. There was little anticipation if any, that a set of new protesters would emerge in favour of the deposed president and Russia.
Confrontations still loom in the autonomous Crimean province of Ukraine where a majority of the people are of Russian decent, and still speak the Russian language. As indicated in one of my articles some three weeks ago, Ukraine has always been at the point of pivot between East and West. The name Ukraine (pronounced Ukraina in the local dialect) means frontier. The parametres of this frontier have been moved forth and back from the time of the Kaizers of Prussia and the Tzars of Russia. More often it has become the battle place that defines the margins between eastern and western Europe.
We shall continue to closely monitor this fluid situation over the weekend and judge what comes out of it. Certainly the three instruments of power that I discussed in my previous articles have clearly come into play here. It is hard at this stage to determine exactly what will happen over the weekend as the turn of events seem to be moving faster than anticipation itself. As things stand, Russia and the United States of America have joined the fray and seem to be pitted against each other in what may play out to be a nasty diplomatic and or military confrontation.
The Crimean peninsula lies within the Black Sea. A body of water which in some way has in the past been an exclusive piece of real estate for Russia. Russia has now mobilised slightly more than 150,000 troops for military maneuvers in this region of the Black sea, an exercise that Russia said has nothing to do with the current situation in neighbouring Ukraine. However, throughout Crimea, militia groups sympathetic to the Russian course have been seen manning road blocks in different locations of the province, a clear indication that Russia has not given up the fight in laying claim to that piece of Ukraine. The militias are equipped with modern weapons and armoured personnel carriers.
According to US intelligence reports, Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been seen moving in, and ships getting rearranged. The official US response indicates that the ships’ movement is not seen as offensive in nature. Well, the US response might just have adopted a diplomatic posture because there is cause for concern when a country can mobilise so many troops within reach of a neighbouring country. Certainly Russia may in this case act militarily to assert its position and dominance in their geo-political spectrum. Surely Russia’s movement of troops must be viewed in the light of a contingency that might escalate into a military operation.
Coming back to the theory of the three instruments of power, throughout the events, past and present, these instruments shall continue to play themselves out in the simmering tensions in that part of the world. In this case, the Russians have withdrawn their pledged $15 Billion supply of cheaper gas to Ukraine.
An event which is likely to be followed by an EU announcement on their pledge and commitment to bringing the Ukrainian economy back to life. Currently, the country needs $35 Billion to resuscitate its ailing economy. The announcement by the EU is not likely to come until the May elections in Ukraine. The outcome of this election will bring into light the level of confidence with which the EU can play a role in helping the country move forward.
Regarding the masses, the gains that have been achieved so far are totally irreversible. But with Crimea, it might just go down to a referendum leading to a soft secession to become a part of the Russian federation. This is the easier route since Crimea remains an autonomous part of Ukraine. However, taking into account the behaviour of the Russian leader Vladimir Putin who acts more on impulses rather than logic, the Kremlin might just arm the already existing, and willing militias in Crimea to fast track the process of secession.
On the military as an instrument of power, Russia might just test the waters by intervening with its troops which are already in the vicinity of Crimea. Sevastopo in Ukraine is the home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and if Crimea doesn’t fall into the Russian federation of independent states, the security of the fleet will be left open to a lot of vices. Russia’s worst fear is for Ukraine to invite the US to place its ships in the same body of water. When this happens, the whole western front of Russia will be left vulnerable.
*Rev. Richard Moleofe is a Political and Social Commentator