Ukraine: Where East meets West

Richard Moleofe | Wednesday February 26, 2014 15:09

 

These three are always found at play in every nation around the world. In writing about the Egyptian upheaval, I tied my argument and prediction to the fact that the most powerful of the three instruments is the population. Indeed in the case of Egypt the masses prevailed over the longtime rule of Hosni Mubarak.

Over time we have seen the military changing the circumstances of the new found democracy in the land of the Pharaohs by removing the popularly elected president and basically replacing his government with some form of semi-military rule. 

This was something, which was a bit difficult to define at the beginning.

Now as the muddy waters have settled, it is clear that the military just found a convenient way of getting their own into power as seen from the just past referendum.  In this current essay, I still argue that of the three, the population still remains to be the most powerful instrument of power as demonstrated over the weekend in Kiev. I still maintain this position because it emanates from a theory that gets tested on a daily basis around the world.

Just this past weekend, the masses in Thailand, Venezuela and in Ukraine have been making very big political statements by demonstrating in the streets for their democratic rights. And in all these three countries, they seem unstoppable. 

The current situation in Ukraine and the way it has played itself out in the last few months is further evidence that the masses remain superior among the three instruments of power.

The situation in Ukraine has been very fluid and seemingly unpredictable because of several variants on the ground. In my previous article I described this country as the threshing floor between East and West and indeed we have seen Russia pitting its strength against a united alliance of the European Union.

I have always argued that the theory of the three instruments of power is not like what we find in the Christian faith with the Trinity where all are equal but maintaining separate functions in concert with one another.  It also cannot be equated to what we refer to as the three arms of governance in a democratic setting. The fact of the matter is, the three are often found in competition in a case where democracy does not exhibit signs of a healthy life.

Over the past weekend we have seen the unarmed protesters prevail over the well-trained, well-resourced and well-armed special forces of their country. It is unimaginable that people armed with shields and stones with snow bags as their barricades could prevail over the might of the military.

This only shows the resolve and the determination of any people when they want to break loose from the grip of dictatorship.

Remember that the military was brought in as a mitigating factor to address the failure of the riot police who were often overrun and taken hostage by the determined protesters.

This is the humiliation that prompted the government to engage the military into the exercise. And when government did this, they could never have conceived in their minds that the skirmishes would only last for two days ending up in favour of the masses.

As we are all aware the masses in Ukraine have prevailed over a corrupt and murderous government, the cherry on the cake is the release from prison of the official leader of the opposition, Yulia Tymoshenko, who has been wallowing in penitentiary for unverifiable charges.

Still restricted to her wheelchair, she gave an emotional but powerful and moving speech to the masses gathering at the Independence Square. From those MPs with discerning minds who until last week were in Viktor Yanukovich’s party, they have defected and thus swelling the ranks of the opposition.

Yanukovich called this a coup by parliament. The mass exodus of MPs crossing the floor to join the opposition ranks is a clear reminder to many around the world who are bending rules and using parliament to rubber stamp their personal agendas that when the masses revolt, even parliament cannot resist. Tymoshenko had been imprisoned for trumped up charges of corruption for the time she served Ukraine as president.  At least they should have spared her for her good looks if they were not compelled by any other logical reason to keep her out of prison.  Now it is Yanukovich’s turn to answer for real issues and crimes he committed while in power.

He is now a president on the run because the masses have determined that the hunter be the hunted. At least for now, everyone is convinced that the president will not be coming back soon.

The Ukrainian revolution by the masses is the beginning of the end.

Is it the end with either Russia or the European Union, which is of course supported in their efforts by the United States. Barak Obama issued a statement over the weekend on the crisis in Ukraine, which to me is a way of igniting the fuse on the Ukrainian propellant.  He said: “Our approach as the US is not to see these as some cold war chess board in which we are in competition with Russia. Our goal is to make sure that the people of Ukraine are able to make decisions about their future.”

It seems Ukraine has come out of the crossroads after the events of this weekend. And in all this, the pointers indicate that Russia is beginning to lose its geo-political sphere of influence. There were two major events taking place in that part of the world over the past week. The winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia and the revolution in Kiev, Ukraine were the main events.  The latter overshadowed the former after all these months of preparation by the Russians. And where do we go from here?

Reverend Richard Moleofe is a political and social commentator.