Marginal seats could go either way

LEKOPANYE MOOKETSI
Correspondent | Friday July 31, 2009 00:00

For the first time the BNF runs the risk of losing its stranglehold on Gaborone, especially Gaborone South which has always been its bastion. 

One of the endangered species is the MP for Ngami, Jacob Nkate, who is also the former BDP secretary general. 

Nkate faces a combined onslaught  from the BCP and the Botswana Alliance  Movement  (BAM) who have entered into an electoral pact. 

The pact is fielding a BAM candidate in this constituency.  In the 2004 general elections, the Minister of Education and Skills Development (Nkate) won the constituency  by 5,291 votes, while Taolo Goyamang Habano of BAM polled 3,922 votes.  BCP's Geoffrey Retuura Ketjimambo came third with 2,361 votes. 

So Nkate, a political survivor,  will have to fight harder to retain the constituency.  Nkate can only expect a bailout from the BNF, which might split the votes in his favour.

Nkate's neighbour, Okavango MP Vister Moruti, is not safe either.  In 2004, Moruti grabbed the constituency by 4,025 votes while the late Joseph Kavindama followed him with 3,774 votes. 

Sakuze Otukeseng of BAM collected a poor 581.  But the combined votes of BAM and BCP could spell disaster for Moruti. 

Another  MP who is not guaranteed of a safe seat is former deputy Finance Minister Duncan Mlazie of Chobe.  In 2004,  Mlazie, who was voted by 2,650, escaped with only 245 votes to beat Gibson Nshimwe of the BCP.  This year, the constituency  can go either way.

In Francistown South,  BDP's new candidate Wynter  Mmolotsi could be in danger  from former legislator, Vain Mamela of the BCP.   In 2004, Mamela was beaten by the incumbent MP Khumo Maoto with 190 votes.

The BDP factional fighting reported in the constituency could tilt the scales in his favour.
Former  police commissioner Edwin Batshu could  also be in trouble at Nkange.  Batshu is the parliamentary candidate for the BDP. 

In 2004, his predecessor, Ambrose Masalila made it to Parliament  with 4,246 while Batisani Simon Maswibiliki polled 3,176 votes. 

This time, Maswibiliki will be banking  on the  1,355 voters who voted for the BAM because the two parties have entered into a pact.

In Bobirwa,  the incumbent  MP, Shaw Kgathi should expect a fierce battle from Taolo Boipuso Lucas of the BCP.

In the last elections,  Kgathi amassed 4,258  votes while Lucas surprisingly  polled  3,756.  That was unexpected in a rural constituency considered a BDP stronghold.  Lucas is expected to give Kgathi a good run for his money.

Kgathi was once quoted as saying that  he was going flex his financial muscle to ensure that the opposition candidates suffer.

Both Selebi-Phikwe constituencies which were won by the BDP in the previous elections,  are tricky. 

In 2004, Nono Ezekiel Molefhi of the BDP escaped with a narrow margin of 151 to beat Nzwaligwa Nzwaligwa  of BCP.  Molefhi could only count on votes splitting by both the BCP and BNF for his survival. 

In 2004, the combined votes of the BCP and BNF were more than those of the BDP candidate.

The same applies in Selebi-Phikwe West where Kavis Kario of the BDP won with 3,100 during the 2004 elections.    He only beat  BCP president  Gil Saleshando by 298 votes. 

Even here, the BDP candidate can count on BNF to split the votes in his favour.   Just like in Selebi-Phikwe East, the combined opposition vote was higher  than that for the BDP.

Gaborone Central is another constituency which could be grabbed by either the BCP or the BDP.

In 2004,  BCP's Dumelang Saleshando escaped with a slim margin of 91 votes to beat  Margaret Nasha of the BDP.  Now both parties have a 50-50 percent chance of winning the constituency.  For it is going to be a two-horse race between the BCP and the BDP.

Gaborone North, which was won by Keletso Rakhudu of the BDP, is also not a safe constituency.  

The difference between Rakhudu and Patrick Kgoadi of the BNF was 450 votes.  The BNF could have recaptured the constituency in 2004  if they had fielded the former  MP, Michael Mzwinila.

This time the BDP would be fortunate again because of the  perennial BNF squabbles  in the constituency.   With just two months to the general elections,  the BNF has still not identified a candidate for Gaborone North.

The BDP could only face a strong challenge from the BCP, which is fielding Motsei Rapelana.   

Gaborone South, which has always been a BNF stronghold,  might  also go to the BDP because of the split in the BNF ranks.  Last time, Akanyang Magama of the BNF beat BDP's Pelotelele Tlhaodi with only 433 votes.  The BDP can close this margin because of the rift in the BNF, which does not want to field Magama.

The BDP stands another  good chance in Gaborone West South, which used to be held by the BNF.

The BNF has shot itself in the foot again by firing the popular  MP, Robert Molefhabangwe on the eve of the elections.

The 2004 election figures show that Molefhabangwe garnered 3,611 votes while the BDP aspirant collected 2,153.  Molefhabangwe  has indicated that  he is going to stand for one of the smaller parties.   

In Gaborone West North, the late Paul Rantao of the BNF clinched the constituency with a margin of 621 votes.  There was a by-election in 2005  after Rantao died.

This time the BNF fielded its president Otsweletse Moupo against BDP's Robert Masitara.

Moupo emerged victorious during the by-election, but was eliminated in the party's primary elections by Maemo Bantsi.

Bantsi will face a strong challenge from Masitara and Annah Motlhagodi of the BCP. 

South East South is another constituency where competition is going to be tight even though in the 2004 general elections Lesego Ethel Motsumi, of the BDP, won with a margin of more than 1,000 votes.

BCP, which is fielding Ephraim Setshwaelo, should be boosted by the cooperation with BAM again.  During the 2004 elections, both the BNF and BCP were voted by more than 5,000 voters. 

But the BDP could benefit from vote splitting in this constituency since the BNF would also be contesting.

South East South is another constituency which could be ripe for the picking by the opposition if there was cooperation.

The BDP could retain Mogoditshane, which is another marginal constituency.   But BDP could only be able to annex the constituency, courtesy of the BNF which has started another civil war in Mogoditshane.

The BNF has suspended Charles Charles, who won the primary elections and replaced him with BCP maverick, Mokgweetsi Kgosipula, who lost the primaries.  The infighting in Mogoditshane is likely to spoil the show for the BNF.

But BNF secretary general Mohammed Khan stands a better chance in Molepolole North against the BDP's Gaotlhaetse Matlhabaphiri. 

The BNF can also take advantage of the BDP factional fighting to wrestle the constituency from Matlhabaphiri. 

In 2004, Matlhabaphiri polled 4,370 while Khan obtained 3,912 votes.  This was encouraging for the BNF because Molepolole has always been a BDP stronghold.

Letlhakeng East, which is held by the BNF, is not a safe constituency either. 

In 2004, Gordon Mokgwathi beat Boometswe Mokgothu of the BDP with a tiny margin of 61. 

But this time it would depend on the popularity of the candidate that the BDP has thrown in the ring.

Mokgothu was the former MP for the constituency before it was split into two. He was not a lightweight in politics, having served as a Cabinet minister.

Tribal sentiments run high in Letlhakeng.

The margin between Filbert Kelebonye Nagafela of the BNF and Maxwell Motowane of the BDP was not very high in 2004.  Nagafela emerged the winner with 3,122 votes, beating Motowane with 365 votes. 

Lobatse was not a marginal constituency but the BDP could steal it, courtesy of the BNF ineptitude.  In 2004, Nehemiah Modubule won the constituency, beating Moggie Mbaakanyi of the BDP with more than 1,000 votes.

But there have been disturbing developments as the BNF expelled Modubule and replaced him with Otladisa Koosaletse.

Since Modubule is also going to contest as an independent candidate, the opposition will split the vote.

In Ngwaketse South, the BDP MP, Peter Siele will be fighting for survival. In 2004, he escaped with a margin of more than 700 votes as he toppled the BNF in one of its strongest areas. 

Kgalagadi North, which is currently held by the BDP, is another constituency where competition is going to be fierce. 

In 2004, BNF candidate Obakeng Moumakwa won, beating Zol Moapare of the BDP with a margin of 77.

But to prove how fragile the constituency is, the BDP snatched it in the subsequent by-election after Moumakwa's resignation.  Moumakwa was forced to quit following the BNF squabbles.

This time, Victor Motobake of the BDP emerged the winner with 3,121 votes while Phillip Khwae of the BNF trailed behind with 2,971. 

Kgatleng West is other constituency, which is unpredictable.  It is currently held by the BDP.  In 1994, the BNF had annexed it but only to lose it in 1999 following a split that led to the formation of the BCP.

As with the other marginal constituencies, the race was close in 2004. 

BDP candidate Mokwadi Modipane polled 3,943, nudging Jerry Rasetshwane of the BNF into second place with a paltry 185.