‘Hell Niño’ rears its ugly head again
Mbongeni Mguni | Tuesday September 8, 2026 13:47
Forecasters from SADC meteorological offices trudged out of their meeting in Swakopmund last week with heavy feet, hunched shoulders and the feeling of an unfair, unprovoked déjà vu.
With the regional experts’ findings confirming their global peers’ expectations of a monster El Nino this season, SADC has every right to feel hard done by the weather gods.
El Nino, El Nino, the cyclical climate phenomenon that in the SADC region causes heatwaves, extreme droughts and floods, cannot be stopped. However, its occurrence could previously be accurately estimated.
In fact, a few years ago, El Nino was known to peak in six to seven-year cycles. For instance, Botswana and the region experienced strong El Ninos in 2002-03, 2009-10, 2015-16 and most recently 2023-24. The 2015-16 peak is memorable for drying up Gaborone Dam and raising temperatures to 40-year highs, sending the capital city into a water crisis that saw residents scurrying to and fro every day hunting for supplies.
The last time El Nino visited, in 2023-24, it triggered SADC to launch a $5.5 billion global appeal for humanitarian aid, after record droughts and floods affecting more than 60 million people in the region.
Instead of “respecting” the six to seven-year timetable, El Nino is revisiting the region this year and bringing with it what global experts expect to be the worst extremes in living memory. The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that this could potentially be the strongest El Niño ever recorded, while other scientists are using words such as “unprecedented”.
In Swakopmund, no such superlatives were used, but the situation was described as dire for Botswana and the immediate regional neighbourhood.
“Recent observations and model forecasts indicate a rapidly strengthening El Nino,” SADC’s Regional Climate Outlook Forum noted in a statement. “The anticipated rainfall pattern is broadly consistent with the established influence of strong El Niño events on Southern Africa climate, which generally increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall over large parts of the central and southern portions of the region.”
For Botswana, SADC’s projections generally show a high confidence that there will be below normal rainfall throughout the period between October and March, which represents the rain season.
Between November and January 2027, a swathe of the country from north-west to south-east, shows increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall, the only positive projection in the recent report.
Between January and March, which is the critical crop-maturing period, most parts of the country are expected to receive below normal rainfall. Far north and south eastern parts have a chance of normal to below normal rains, according to SADC.
The seasonal situation is replicated in neighbouring countries such as Namibia, South Africa, Zimbabwe and most parts of Zambia. However, the far northern parts of SADC are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall, a trend that has been noted whenever El Nino has paid a visit.
With the skies dry, local and regional farmers can also expect temperatures to heat up this season, further jeopardising agricultural activities.
“Temperature outlook covering the period from October 2026 to January 2027 indicates a high likelihood for above normal temperatures in most parts of the region, except over central to north-eastern parts where cooler than usual temperatures are expected,” SADC experts said of the regional outlook.
In Botswana, El Nino is associated with heatwaves of intensifying frequency and degree, which tend to obliterate any fledgling crops, while drying up grasslands for livestock and increasing the incidence and intensity of wildfires.
Local authorities, from environment, to local government to health as well as disaster management, are reportedly scrambling to coordinate a response to the dire forecasts of the unwanted visitor.
Recently, Environment and Tourism minister, Wynter Mmolotsi, warned that across the continent, El Nino’s effects were expected to cause between $10 billion and $20 billion in economic damages across the African continent.
While specific interventions have not been made public, it is expected that government, working with the private sector and development agencies, will bulk up its activities to lessen the impact of El Nino, especially on the most vulnerable members of society.
Despite the preparations taking place, the knock from El Nino will undoubtedly reverberate. In 2023-24, government had to set aside hundreds of millions of pula for interventions such as paying 40% of the seasonal loans to farmers, a 30% feed subsidy to help keep livestock alive a 30% feed subsidy for dairy, piggery, poultry and aquaculture smallholder farmers and others.
In addition, Ipelegeng, the labour-based unemployment relief programme, had its quota increased by an additional 10,000 slots, while other interventions targeted underprivileged children and adults.
This year, with scientists using terms such as “unprecedented,” the unwanted visitor will pack a heavier punch.