Fire in the sky, misery on the ground
Mbongeni Mguni | Wednesday August 12, 2026 10:11
Across the country, the abundant rains enjoyed in the last season are providing fuel to a rapidly spreading crisis. Between April and July, wildfires destroyed 336,231.31 hectares, an area comparable to more than twice the size of Gaborone.
By comparison, over the same period last year, wildfires raged across 120,410.50 hectares. The numbers represent an increase of nearly 180 percent year on year.
“The increase is largely attributed to the high fuel load which resulted from the torrential rainfall experienced in the 2024-2025 wet season,” the Ministry of Environment and Tourism’s director of Forestry and Range Resources, Baitshepi Hill, told Mmegi in a written response to enquiries. “The wildland fire trends have been fluctuating and largely predicated on fuel load, prevailing weather conditions and anthropogenic activities. “High fuel loads, high temperatures and strong wind mostly lead to multiple high intensity wildland fires while low fuel loads, low temperatures and moderate winds mostly lead to fewer and low intensity wildland fires.”
By fuel, the Ministry is referring to burnable vegetation, which includes dry grass, leaves, shrubs, fallen branches and other materials that help spread a spark into a raging wildfire. Anthropogenic activities, meanwhile, refer to human activities that lead to fires such as burning of grass and discarding of combustible materials such as lit cigarettes.
Essentially, the healthy rains built up vegetation across the country and a combination of weather conditions and human activities are causing massive wildfires across the country.
Underlying these factors, however, is a longer term phenomenon. Climate change is contributing to more frequent droughts and heatwaves, causing greater tracts of dry grass and vegetation, the fuel required by wildfires to spread rapidly.
In previous decades, climatologists estimated that the country endured a drought roughly every seven years. In the past two decades however, this incidence has narrowed sharply. El Nino-driven droughts are causing drier wet seasons and record heatwaves which occur with greater frequency.
Botswana is amongst countries expected to experience the worst of climate change’s effects, particularly in terms of more frequent droughts and higher temperatures.
“Climate change exacerbates both the rainfall and drought seasons,” Hill said. “Above normal rains have been experienced for extended periods in the last two years in Botswana and this has caused substantial growth of vegetation (fuel load). “Upon curing due to extremely high temperatures in the dry season, the fuel load would be dry enough to give rise to multiple high intensity wildland fires. “Climate change also has the potential to cause wildland fires in areas which are not frequented by wildland fires.”
This year, the hazards of wildfires are expected to worsen due to forecasts that a strong El Nino is due to hit the country and the region later this year.
The Ministry of Environment and Tourism has already forecast a greater than 90 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop and dominate Botswana's upcoming summer rainfall season from October 2026 to March 2027. That forecast means an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-normal temperatures over much of the country.
According to researchers at Oxford Economics Africa, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre has noted that El Niño is expected to persist and intensify through the end of the year, with a 97% chance of it lasting into the early parts of the second quarter of next year.
The agency further estimates an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño from October to December 'that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950'.
Hill said El Nino, besides its devastating effects on food security, health and the economy, would also create dangerous conditions for bushfires across the country.
“Suppressed rainfall will leave savannas and rangelands tinder-dry, extreme heatwaves will accelerate the drying of soils and vegetation, and unstable air masses will increase lightning strikes that often ignite fires in open rangelands,” she said. “These bushfires threaten woodland resources, biodiversity, grazing lands and pastoral livelihoods, while also coinciding with drought that strains water supplies. “The Department urges all communities, farmers, and local councils to remain vigilant, establish firebreaks, conserve water, report outbreaks immediately and strengthen preparedness measures to safeguard lives, property and the environment during this critical fire season.”
The Department of Forestry and Range Resources is ramping up activities to restrain the incidence of wildfires According to Hill, prior to the start of the fire season, the Department conducts education campaigns to sensitise the general public on the dangers of improper handling of wildland fires.
Daily Fire Danger Index Maps are also broadcast on national television to issue warnings to the general public on the possibility of wildland fires spreading uncontrollably when ignited.
Public adherence to these measures and general warnings to proper handling of wildland fires under certain weather conditions would immensely reduce the increase of wildland fire outbreaks, Hill said.
“The public should also apply for vegetation burning permits before undertaking any form of burning in their properties and also comply with the conditions under which the burning permit was issued,” she said. “Furthermore, the public should also take responsibility to promptly report wildland fire outbreaks to the relevant authority such as the Department, dikgosi and police. “Responding to wildland fire outbreaks safely is a shared responsibility that extends beyond emergency responders to the general public.”
The upcoming rainy season is expected to produce fire in the sky and misery on the ground. Greater vigilance and adherence to regulations will be critical.