El Niño puts Botswana on drought red alert
Innocent Selatlhwa | Wednesday August 12, 2026 06:00
Environment and Tourism Minister Wynter Mmolotsi told Parliament on Friday that the weather system was expected to dominate the country’s rainfall season from October 2026 to March 2027.
El Niño conditions are already present and are forecast to strengthen during the southern hemisphere summer, particularly between October and January.
“Official models indicate a more than 90% probability that a very strong El Niño will dominate Botswana’s upcoming rainfall season,” Mmolotsi said.
The minister said El Niño may not act alone. The Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate driver, is now neutral but could turn positive later in the year. That shift could reinforce El Niño, further reducing rainfall, delaying the start of the season, and raising temperatures across Botswana and much of southern Africa.
The warning places farmers on the front line. The minister said seasonal rains could arrive late and be broken by long dry spells, sharply reducing yields of staple crops such as maize and sorghum.
Botswana’s cattle industry is also in the firing line. Deteriorating rangelands and shrinking natural water pools could weaken cattle and cause localised deaths. Mmolotsi urged farmers to secure supplementary feed early, plant drought-tolerant seeds, and consider reducing their herds before conditions worsen.
The country’s dams, pipelines and communal watering points are expected to come under pressure as extreme heat pushes up evaporation. Authorities have been told to tighten water conservation, closely monitor reservoir levels and promote rainwater harvesting to avoid emergency supply failures.
Mmolotsi reminded Parliament that the 2015–2016 El Niño brought record heat and the region’s worst drought in decades. Maun reached 44º Celsius, Gaborone 43.9º Celsius, Tsabong 43.5º Celsius, and Werda 43.3º Celsius. Gaborone Dam fell below 20%, forcing severe water rationing.
Earlier El Niño cycles in 1982–1983 and 1991–1992 slashed traditional grain harvests and forced government to fund food relief. The 2023–2024 cycle was later declared an extreme agricultural drought year.
This time, the threat stretches far beyond farms and taps. Drying water bodies could lead to mass wildlife and fish deaths, whilst animals searching for water and grazing may leave protected areas and enter settlements, increasing human-wildlife conflict.
Good rains in the last season have also left heavy vegetation, which could turn into fuel for fast-moving wildland fires once it dries. Such fires would threaten communities, grazing land, protected areas, and tourism facilities.
High-intensity heatwaves are forecast across all districts, placing outdoor workers, elderly people and vulnerable rural communities at risk. The public has been advised to avoid direct sunlight during peak hours, use water sparingly, create firebreaks, and immediately report veld fires.
Wildlife authorities, conservation groups and safari operators were urged to maintain watering points and drill boreholes where necessary. The ministry continues public awareness campaigns through radio, television, social media, local authorities, and non-governmental organisations.
The warning follows climate alerts issued by international and regional forecasting bodies. An African Union climate forum held on July 30 was told to prepare for El Niño-related losses estimated at between $10 billion and $20 billion across the continent.
Mmolotsi said Botswana’s full rainfall and temperature outlook would only be released in early September after further analysis.
“At this stage, only an advisory has been issued as an early warning to raise public awareness,” he said.