The betting mirage and lessons never learnt
Lewanika Timothy | Wednesday July 22, 2026 10:50
The discussion on the World Cup 2026 has centred on the usual banter on ‘GOATs’ (Ronaldo vs Messi), team support and sports betting. Beyond the frenzy of goals and the 90 minute adrenaline rush, much of the eyeballs on the screens are watching out for the manifestation of fortunes, something which may reshape the way the world views sports forever.
Of these discussions, sports betting has taken centre stage, intensifying as the competition has moved towards its climax.
For countries like Botswana which are deep in the belly of unemployment and a spiralling cost of living, people are simply seeking to earn a quick buck. However, it’s clear the lesson is not being learnt.
After many punters took a beating during the regular football league season, the FIFA World Cup brought renewed excitement for gamblers, but the lesson that the house always wins has still not been learnt.
Some of these punters had even budgeted that they would score huge wins during the World Cup and enjoy complete lifestyle changes, confirming a theory psychologists have shared about the mindset of betting.
To an outsider, a losing bet is simply a loss. To the dedicated punter, however, it is often interpreted as evidence that victory is getting closer. Psychologists call this the 'near-miss effect' or the powerful tendency for an outcome that falls just short of winning to feel fundamentally different from an outright defeat.
Missing one leg of an accumulator or seeing a lottery number fall one digit away from the jackpot creates the impression that success is within reach. Research by psychologist Luke Clark and colleagues has consistently shown that near-misses increase a gambler's motivation to continue playing, despite providing no greater probability of winning the next bet. In essence, the brain treats 'almost winning' as a signal to keep trying rather than as confirmation of a loss.
This psychological trap is reinforced by what behavioural scientists describe as the illusion of control. Humans are naturally inclined to believe that skill, better judgment or persistence can influence events that are, in reality, governed entirely by chance. After losing by a narrow margin, a punter convinces themselves that a different selection, another accumulator or one more stake will finally produce the desired outcome.
The thought process becomes: 'I was only one game away. next time I'll get it right.' Studies have found that gamblers who exhibit stronger beliefs in their ability to influence random outcomes experience greater motivation to continue betting after near-misses than those who recognise the outcome as purely chance-driven.
Neuroscience offers an explanation for why this thinking is so compelling. Brain-imaging studies have shown that near-miss outcomes activate many of the same reward circuits that respond to actual wins, particularly regions such as the ventral striatum and the insula. Although the gambler receives no financial reward, the brain briefly reacts as though success was tantalisingly close, generating excitement instead of discouragement. This creates a dangerous paradox: the very losses that should persuade a person to stop instead strengthen the urge to continue, convincing them that the next wager could finally deliver the breakthrough.
For bookmakers, tournaments of the magnitude of the World Cup, are less about football than they are about volume. The more matches played, the more bets placed. The more bets placed, the greater the certainty that the mathematics underpinning the industry will ultimately deliver another profitable tournament.
The model is reaping bumper results for betting companies. Betway's parent company, Super Group, reported revenue of more than US$2.2 billion in 2025, a 22% increase on the previous year, with Africa emerging as one of its strongest growth regions. The group said customer activity across regulated African markets continued to accelerate, helping drive higher revenues and earnings.
There was also a notable mention of Botswana, where since regularising the industry, has seen online betting become increasingly accessible through smartphones, instant mobile payments and round-the-clock digital platforms. What was once an activity confined to betting shops has evolved into a service available at the touch of a screen, lowering the barriers to participation while increasing the frequency of betting.
The World Cup is widely regarded as the biggest commercial event on the global sports betting calendar. This year's expanded 48-team tournament, featuring 104 matches, is generating record betting volumes as millions of punters back favourites, chase accumulators and attempt to predict football's most unpredictable competition.
For many consumers, the attraction lies in the possibility of transforming relatively small amounts of money into substantial winnings. Betting slips promising returns of thousands of pula from stakes of P20 or even P5, have become a familiar feature across social media, reinforcing the belief that financial fortunes can change with a correctly predicted scoreline.
Yet the economics of sports betting point in the opposite direction. Unlike investors who create wealth through productive assets, bookmakers generate revenue by pricing probability. Every market carries an embedded margin that ensures the operator retains an advantage over thousands and, eventually, millions of bets. Individual punters may experience significant wins, but collectively the market is structured to ensure that customer losses exceed payouts over time.
This explains why bookmakers continue reporting record financial performances while simultaneously celebrating growth in customer numbers.
In other words, the house always wins!
Every increase in betting activity represents additional revenue flowing into an industry whose profitability depends not on predicting football matches correctly, but on managing risk more efficiently than its customers.
That contradiction is becoming increasingly relevant in Botswana, where household budgets remain under pressure. Inflation is at a three and a half year high of 10.7%, while real wage growth has lagged for many households and unemployment continues to constrain disposable incomes.
Competition for consumer spending has intensified across supermarkets, retailers, banks, insurers and the hospitality sector.
But because the lessons remain unlearned, betting operators are now claiming an increasingly visible share of the same wallet.