Africa in the new great power competition

Solly Rakgomo | Monday June 8, 2026 06:00

As a result, the increased attention to Africa by external powers in both political and economic terms can be attributed to these features. Due to the growing geopolitical importance of Africa, there has been increasing competition among superpowers such as China, Russia, the US, and even Europe for influence over the continent through investment, security cooperation, infrastructure development, and diplomatic partnerships. This trend has made Africa one of the most important battlegrounds for the emerging multipolar international order.

China’s expanding footprint in Africa

China has seen increased influence in African countries over the last two decades, largely due to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which began in 2013. China has invested heavily in transport, energy, telecommunications, ports, railways, and industrial projects through infrastructure diplomacy. This approach has ensured that China is viewed as Africa’s major trading partner. These efforts are mainly the result of Africa’s strategic importance, market expansion, and natural resources. Various infrastructure projects financed by China have included the construction of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway, which provides Ethiopia access to the ports of Djibouti, and the Standard Gauge Railway, which connects Mombasa and Nairobi in Kenya. China has been advancing port and maritime development in line with its Maritime Silk Road strategy while establishing its first foreign military base in Djibouti. On the other hand, China’s involvement in developing the Digital Silk Road through firms such as Huawei and ZTE has been on the rise, contributing to digital infrastructure, 5G networks, and smart city development in Africa. The increasing involvement of China has, nonetheless, brought into focus issues related to debt sustainability, dependence, cybersecurity, and sovereignty, given Zambia’s debt crisis.

Russia’s strategic and security engagement in Africa Russia has increased its presence in Africa through military diplomacy, security cooperation, energy relations, and political engagement, especially in areas of instability and weakened Western presence. While China focuses more on infrastructure development in its foreign policy, Russia has focused on defense and security, building relations with countries facing insurgencies, political change, and civil strife.

This is part of Russia’s wider strategy to assert itself as a world power amid a Western-dominated multipolar world. Military cooperation has now taken center stage in Russia’s relations with Africa. Several defense treaties have been inked between Russia and several African nations, including military aid, training, intelligence exchange, and counterterrorism efforts. Russia has become a key supplier of weapons in the Sahel region, especially in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, where tensions arose with France after the departure of French troops from the region due to anti-French sentiments.

Another key element in Russia’s foreign policy includes private military groups, specifically the Wagner group. Members of the Wagner group provided security and military support, as well as military training, in some countries such as the Central African Republic and Mali. As a result, the Russians received access to mining rights in exchange for their services. Russia has consolidated its position by using narratives against the West that emphasise sovereignty, non-intervention, and anti-neocolonialism. In addition to the security partnership, Russia has sought to build relations in areas such as mining, hydrocarbon resources, and energy, as well as in diplomacy, to gain support from Africa on the international stage.

Western re-engagement in Africa

The rising influence of China and Russia in Africa has led to increased participation of Western countries, especially the US and the European Union, in developing a more holistic strategic approach towards Africa. The economic strength of the continent, its fast-growing population, its abundance of minerals, and its geographical significance in the region have led to a need to rethink how Western countries view the continent’s geopolitical importance in the changing global landscape of multipolarity. This has led to a change in the West’s strategic approach towards Africa. The US has been escalating its engagement on the African continent through numerous diplomatic, economic, and security measures to curb the influence of China and Russia. Recent US policies focus primarily on sectors such as trade, technology, investment in renewable energy, and democracy. Such programs include the US-Africa Leaders Summit and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), among others run by the G7, and aim to offer alternatives to Chinese infrastructure investments.

Likewise, the European Union has augmented its engagement through programs such as the Global Gateway, which focuses on investments in transport, connectivity, health, energy, and education. This program is considered the European approach to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, completely in terms of infrastructure and connectivity. European decision-makers have now understood that staying influential in Africa entails developing economic partnerships and cooperation based on investment rather than relying solely on historical relationships. The role of France in Africa has also evolved amid growing anti-French sentiment and dwindling influence in the Sahel. The recent “Africa Forward” summit by President Emmanuel Macron proposes reframing the relationship through investment diplomacy, economic cooperation, and reduced military reliance after France withdrew from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

African agency in the emerging multipolar order

Even as rivalry among China, Russia, the US, and Europe grows fiercer, African states seem to be exercising their strategic agency rather than merely serving as playgrounds for rival powers to compete. The emergence of a multipolar world has presented new avenues for the African countries to pursue diverse partnerships, derive maximum economic advantage, and gain negotiating power by engaging with various international players. Unlike before, when Africa aligned itself with one particular bloc, African nations now pursue their national interests pragmatically.

The growing agency of Africa is demonstrated by its multidirectional diplomatic approach. The African states negotiate with China on financing infrastructure projects, with Russia on security cooperation, with the EU on trade deals and development aid, and with the US on technology and strategic collaboration. Through this balancing act, African countries can ensure they are not overly dependent on any one partner and improve their leverage in international relations.

Challenges and risks in Africa’s emerging geopolitical environment

Even though Africa’s relationship with many global actors has enhanced its strategic options, it has also created structural problems and risks. Among the major challenges that have been faced by Africa is the issue of economic dependence, as reliance on external funding, development projects, and security support may limit a country’s policy flexibility. This is because it becomes hard for the African nations to influence the course of externally sponsored projects. Another area receiving considerable attention is debt sustainability. Many African countries have incurred considerable public debt associated with infrastructure development in transportation, energy, and urban areas. While such investments promote modernisation and economic growth, the need to pay back these debts can undermine fiscal stability and make the country vulnerable to external economic policies.