It’s not blood diamonds, it’s diamonds for good
Lewanika Timothy | Tuesday May 5, 2026 14:42
The year is 2006, President Festus Mogae is dealing with two pandemics, one being the HIV/AIDS scourge the other being a pandemic yet to fully manifest; the narrative of Africa’s diamonds being blood diamonds.
Those who followed the matters closely will tell you that De Beers had to pump billions in advertising to correct the narrative, while at the same time Mogae took Botswana’s voice to the world stage, refusing to allow a single story to define an entire continent.
Many moons later it appears that while the war was temporarily won, the stench of natural diamonds not doing good has began to stick, with structural changes been seen in the sale of diamonds.
However, let’s set the narrative straight: it was never blood diamonds everywhere, it was diamonds for good here in Botswana.
The film Blood Diamond spotlighted the illicit diamond market that fuelled the Sierra Leone civil war, showing the inner workings of the trade and its effects on the country. The plot follows a diamond smuggler and an enslaved fisherman through their journey to find a rare diamond in hopes of escape and family reunification.
The diamond trade within this story revealed that many sales of black-market diamonds were funding terrorist militia groups that were trying to overthrow the current government. The film also showed that the illicit trade of various goods using forced labour within this time of civil unrest, were being funded by diamond sales overseas. Without wealthy consumers of western countries, the Sierra Leone civil war would not have had the funding that it did.
At the release of the movie, consumers in the Western markets, which are the biggest retail market for jewellery made from natural diamonds, were spooked leading to a feeling that purchasing natural diamonds was akin to supporting a genocide. This would later lead to the establishment of the United Nations-backed Kimberley Process in 2003, which up to today certifies the country of origin of diamonds and prevents illicit sales of stones.
But the stench of this movie on the perception of consumers on naturally diamonds is only beginning to be fully felt.
As it stands Botswana’s diamond stockpile is nearly double its target inventory levels amid persistent low prices, leaving the country unable to increase gem production in the short term to lift its economy, the finance ministry has said.
Botswana's economy was expected to shrink by almost 1% in 2025 following a 3% contraction the year before, largely due to the collapse of diamond prices under pressure from lab-grown gems and weak global demand.
Botswana produced 18 million carats of diamonds in 2024, only second to Russia, according to the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme.
It had a stockpile of 12 million carats at the end of December 2025, according to the finance ministry's 2026/27 Budget Strategy Paper nearly double the government's allowable inventory level of 6.5 million carats, highlighting a growing glut in the supply of diamonds to mid-stream sectors of the industry
From independence in 1966 to the early 2000s, the economy grew at over 7% per year. Botswana was one of only 13 countries globally, and the sole one in Africa, to sustain such high growth during that period.
However, in the 2000`s since the release of the movie, annual growth slowed to an average of 5.1%, and since 2009, it has further declined to an average of 3%. The economy even contracted by close to 1% in 2025 according to latest GDP figures weighed down by a slowdown in the diamond industry.
While it is normal for growth to slow as countries become wealthier, the pace of Botswana's decline is concerning given its structural weaknesses and higher poverty and inequality rates compared to other middle-income countries.
Economists now believe that the problem in the diamond industry appear to be more structural, with this expected to be the new structure of the economy.
Back in those days, when speaking before the United Nations, Mogae unequivocally stressed that Botswana’s diamonds were the very opposite of bloodshed. They were precious stones that sponsored economic transformation with their revenues from building schools, hospitals, roads and a state that many developing nations aspired to emulate.
'We are able to provide free education to all, and near universal health services. Even in the most remote parts of the country, no one is more than 10 miles from a health centre. And we are fighting the HIV/AIDS pandemic,' he said.
By then, the country was giving free anti-retroviral drugs to those in need, providing food, clothing and schooling to about 60,000 AIDS orphans, and testing pregnant mothers to limit transmission of the disease.
'American consumers should look at the good we have done and understand the role that is played by diamonds' he said.
The diamonds for good narrative is one that the world and consumers in the West should never forget. At independence in 1966 the country was one of the poorest countries in the world, largely dependent on cattle and foreign aid. The discovery and disciplined management of diamonds changed everything.
Through a carefully structured partnership with De Beers, the country captured value, built institutions, and avoided the resource curse that has plagued others.
Ironically, De Beers was once at the forefront of a potential disruption. An Anglo American executive spoke recently to Mmegi and tracked back revealing that in the early 2000s, the company quietly explored synthetic diamonds, recognising the technological inevitability of lab grown stones.
It was an early admission that the future could look very different according to the executive but at the time, the strategic decision was actually designed to double down on natural diamonds, to protect their rarity, their mystique, and their premium positioning.
“Years later De Beers would re-enter the space more formally with its lab grown brand, only to recalibrate again, closing or scaling back certain aspects as market dynamics evolved. The message from the company remained consistent in spirit.
“Natural diamonds and lab grown diamonds were however never meant to be the same. One was a product of the earth, formed over billions of years. The other was a manufactured alternative that was meant to serve the industrial space,” the executive said.
In recent times, lab growns have not only improved in quality, but they have also become more accessible, more affordable and more appealing to a generation less attached to tradition. What began as a niche has grown into a credible segment of the market. For some consumers, the appeal lies in price. For others, it lies in perceived sustainability, even if that perception is contested.
And so the industry finds itself in a new kind of struggle. No longer fighting only against the ghosts of conflict diamonds, but against a technological and generational shift that challenges the very foundation of its value proposition.
The country has continued to defend the narrative of diamonds for development. Successive leaders have echoed Mogae’s position, reminding the world that in Botswana, diamonds have funded free education, universal healthcare, and one of Africa’s most stable democracies.
Yet the market does not always reward nuance. It responds to sentiment and this generation more too trends.
The question now is whether natural diamonds can reclaim their narrative in a world that is increasingly sceptical of origin stories. Ends...