A surprise sparkle for diamonds
Mbongeni Mguni | Wednesday April 8, 2026 09:53
As the 36.92 carat blue diamond made its tour of the Office of the President on Wednesday with security officials scurrying about and cameras flashing, an onlooker had a poignant observation.
“Would a synthetic no matter its size, colour or shape, produce the same excitement and fuss,” she said. “Would the Office of the President in any country stop what they’re doing to see the latest synthetic?”
The sights on Wednesday underline the enduring allure of natural diamonds, the almost child-like wonderment spectators have when they lay their eyes on the purity of a rock that sat hundreds of kilometres before the surface of the earth for perhaps a billion years.
This is part of the confidence the natural diamond industry has that it will survive the prolonged downturn in the sector. That natural diamonds carry an enduring value that cannot be replicated and which does not diminish from one generation to the next.
The blue diamond uncovered at Lucara’s Karowe Mine recently stands as testament to the inimitable rarity and beauty of natural diamonds. Already, using valuations from before the diamond slump, it is estimated the stone could fetch up to $30 million in the hands of private buyers.
Lucara Botswana managing director, Naseem Lahri, explained the dynamics around value and niche segmenting in today’s market, to Mmegi.
“I think the market is under pressure for small diamonds but this is not under pressure,” she said, pointing to the latest find. “For a normal natural diamond between one to five carats, it's under pressure, because the synthetic market has taken over in America and this is a structural change, not cyclical.”
Lahri’s comments were a reference to the price point battle between natural diamonds and synthetics. In the United States, which accounts for more than 50 percent of sales in the diamond industry, naturals are losing significant ground to synthetics in the smaller sizes of stones and in key segments such as bridal.
Experts at research agencies such as Tenoris note that last year, more buyers were willing to pay more for larger natural diamonds. The trend suggests the loss of the lower end of the market for naturals, but the gain of the top end, a segment producers have also sought out as they push for a value differentiation between synthetics and naturals.
The battle for price points is a moot affair for Lucara which sells its diamonds in a more bespoke fashion.
“We participate in a market that is willing to buy natural diamonds and they will pay the price for the natural diamonds and the provenance of where those diamonds came from,” she said. “For us, it's about legacy, it's about heritage, and when you talk legacy, you're talking to high net worth families that want diamonds like this, that want it unique for their family and they can pay. “Price is no longer determined in these types of stones and price point does not exist for these types of stones. “It can be $10 million, it can be $70 million, we don't know because it depends on what somebody wants to pay for that. “It's about legacy, it's about experience and it's about uniqueness.”
While Lucara’s blue diamond is a niche discovery for a niche clientele, analysts say the excitement natural stones are still able to garner, even in a recovering market, suggest that a future remains for the stones that built economies such as Botswana.
Analysts say the efforts being made by governments and producers to boost demand for natural diamonds, need to be complemented by the right distribution platforms for optimal recovery of the natural diamond industry.
“You need to shift the market and you need to go to a market that will buy natural diamonds,” Lahri noted. “Honestly, people that participate in the blue diamond will not participate in fake or synthetic. “They want the real thing.
She added: “With these, synthetics cannot come into play. “In fact, synthetics cannot compete with us here on the large diamonds. “They are not a threat and never will be.”
Other players in the natural industry will feel buoyed by the market fervour the discovery of a rare diamond is still able to stir up.