Consumers brace for April shocks in fuel, electricity
Pauline Dikuelo - Mbongeni Mguni | Friday March 27, 2026 20:38
The Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) is due to announce the quantum of tariff increase agreed with the government, after the Botswana Power Corporation lodged an application for an average 46% increase in tariffs from April 2026.
Under the proposal, domestic consumers would face the steepest adjustment at 68%, whilst government users would see tariffs rise by 41%. Commercial users and mining companies would each face increases of about 40%, resulting in a weighted-average adjustment of 46% across all consumer categories.
Already, key stakeholders such as Business Botswana, Botswana Exporters and Manufacturers Association, as well as major consumers such as Debswana, have expressed concerns about the planned tariff increase.
However, fuel prices are likely to be the sharpest shock for consumers when the new financial year begins on April 1. The Middle East crisis is piling pressure on local retail pump prices, with industry insiders estimating that, technically, petrol retail pump prices could rise by as much as P4 per litre to break even, while diesel could require as much as a P5 per litre hike.
BERA maintains a slate, which is a formula that calculates the costs of supplying and distributing various forms of fuel within the country. Every month, BERA looks at the movements of the various factors in the slate to gauge whether pump prices are “under-recovering” or “over-recovering”.
“if you look at before the war, crude oil prices were sitting at $60 or $70 per barrel and now they've been fluctuating above the $100, so obviously now the cost of product has gone up, logistics have gone up, insurance and everything else has gone up and Botswana is a net importer or price taker,” an authoritative industry insider told Mmegi last week. “We have no influence over the things that are happening in the international market, and already, the under-recovery for petrol is between P2 and P4 per litre, while for diesel we're looking at about P5 per litre, under-recovery.”
While BERA is unlikely to pass the entire under-recovery on to consumers, a significant hike is expected at month-end, particularly as traders who supply Botswana move from contract pricing to spot pricing, the latter reflecting short-term supply and demand pressures.
Thus far, BERA has limited its comments to the adequacy of fuel security, as countries across the globe have prioritised strategic stocks for their own economies.
“The continuation or escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to key maritime routes may present potential risks to future global fuel supply chains,” the Authority said earlier this month. “In such circumstances, fuel-producing countries may prioritise domestic demand, potentially resulting in export restrictions or supply disruptions, including non-delivery of contracted cargoes due to force majeure. “The Authority, working closely with the Ministry of Minerals and Energy, BOL and citizen importers, will continue to closely monitor these developments and to manage supply risks through ongoing supplier engagement and active supply planning.”
The pressure on fuel prices comes as the public transport sector waits for a decision by the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure on an increase in commuter fares after April. Following months of negotiations and threats of nationwide strikes by public transporters, the Ministry announced in December that it had secured an agreement on revised fares to take effect in April.
The exact figure is not yet known, but public transport associations have been pushing for steep hikes, citing pressure on their businesses. Their demands are expected to become even more strident as the Middle East conflict drives up oil prices. Meanwhile, consumers are appealing to regulators to investigate possible underhanded practices by retailers and wholesalers suspected of inordinately increasing prices in recent months, particularly in food.
Food inflation reached 6.1 percent in January, the quickest in more than 12 months, indicating faster rising prices of most basic commodities. However, beyond food prices, consumers have noted rapidly escalating prices in personal care items, including bath soaps, lotions, and related products.
For the 12 months to February, average prices of personal care items had risen to 10.2 percent, from 9.2 percent in January, representing one of the sharpest increases amongst non-food items.
“Honestly, it’s getting ridiculous,” said Neo Sekoma, an informal sector hairdresser. “Basic things like roll-on, toothpaste and sanitary products are no longer affordable. “These are not luxury items; they are essentials. “Every time I go shopping, the prices have gone up again, but our incomes haven’t. “ It feels like we’re being forced to choose between hygiene and other basic needs.”
Richard Harriman, whose Consumer Watchdog group on Facebook has nearly 260,000 members, does not believe there is a conspiracy amongst traders, but agreed that prices are escalating rapidly.
'I haven’t seen any evidence of price fixing by retailers; it’s more likely that they’re checking each other’s prices and matching them to avoid losing business,' he said. Consumers are very worried about potential price increases, and they’re right to be concerned. “What consumers need in difficult times is for retailers to offer us their support with special offers and deals. “We’re always being told that competition is good for consumers, so it’s time we see that happening. It’s good for consumers, and it’s good for dynamic businesses as well. Which retailer wants to be the one working in partnership with consumers, not exploiting them? “Wherever possible they should minimize costs by sourcing local suppliers to reduce transportation costs, but only if the quality is good enough.”