It’s not diamonds or: It’s diamonds and...
Mbongeni Mguni | Wednesday March 11, 2026 08:33
Those who want policymakers to give up on diamonds and move on frequently point to the fact that Angola last year overtook Botswana as the continent’s biggest producer of diamonds by value. The explosion of synthetics in the market also means the hopes for a return to the glory days of Botswana diamonds are dashed, they say.
Those within the country defending natural diamonds say Angola only came tops because Botswana, a veteran of boom/bust cycles, reduced production in order to support the clearing up of inventory in the pipeline and with it, the resuscitation of demand. Flooding the market by over-producing at a time of softer demand, dulls the rarity, value and mystery of natural diamonds and with it the prices that budgets and communities depend on.
The defenders also point out that no one is talking about a return to the glory days for Botswana; rather it is about navigating a new reality where diamonds compete for Gen Z’s fickle pocket-attention with synthetics, rubies, all sorts of tech and others. The challenges are huge and the strategising for victory has to be nothing short of miraculous, but the returns are potentially massive.
Bogolo Kenewendo, the Minerals and Energy minister, is very clear about where she stands in the debate.
“We have a 3D strategy which is defence, differentiation and desire,” she told members of the Diplomatic Corps in an engagement on Tuesday. “Through some partnerships, we've managed to work on differentiation and the Gemological Institute of America at the beginning of last year agreed with us and changed their grading models, reserving the Four Cs for the natural diamond. “In defence, we have returned to category marketing that the diamond industry had stopped or hadn't invested in at the same amounts, back to a commitment of one percent of our diamond revenues with the other diamond-producing countries.”
Category marketing involves an industry-wide push to market natural diamonds, rather than a company- by-company or brand-by-brand approach that had proved ineffective against the onslaught of synthetics. De Beers and Botswana are anchoring the Luanda Accord, an agreement signed last June amongst diamond producing nations and companies to contribute to global category marketing under the Natural Diamond Council (NDC).
“We of course championed this because we were ready to fund category marketing, particularly for Botswana diamonds. “We have set aside $100 million per annum that we will put towards category marketing and that's over and above what we will do with the NDC,” she said.
In terms of building desire, Botswana is leading partners to push against the narrative synthetics have built up that the lab-grown stones are more ethically produced, greener and beneficial. Besides championing the “diamonds for good” campaign, Botswana is demonstrating practically that its diamonds are ethically sourced, have a transformational impact on real communities and are among the fastest adopters of the highest global sustainability mining standards.
“Some of you might have already visited our mines and you know that we are one of the very few mining jurisdictions that actually have game reserves inside the mines,” Kenewendo added in her talk with the diplomats. “We pride ourselves in being able to restore the balance of nature and to take care of some of the rarest animals in the world and we've been able to breed some of them back from extinction, to levels that we are able to repopulate other spaces in the wild.”
She added: “That is a big feat that we must talk about often, because nature restoration is a big pillar for our mining and it shows the symbiotic relationship between mining and nature. “Beyond our game reserves in our mines, Botswana has been able to protect over one third of its land for conservation and we're only able to do so because diamond revenues allow us to offer a bit more equity and delivery of social services.”
The 3D strategy is showing signs of success, with analysts at the retail end of the industry noting the “bifurcation” of the diamond market, a term that essentially relates to the splitting of the market into natural diamonds which are positioned as rare, luxury, ethical and “developmental good” heritage items, versus synthetics which are the fashion items.
According to the last available data, in 2025, synthetic unit sales continued rising while prices kept plummeting, holding a trend seen over the years. For naturals, the retail end saw increasing appetites for larger stones and greater willingness amongst buyers to spend more for these, a useful development given that synthetics have largely taken over the market for smaller stones.
However, as Kenewendo explained, government’s approach in mining is not “diamonds or nothing” but rather, “diamonds and others”.
“For those that think we're wildly doubling down on natural diamonds and that this means we're not doing anything in other spaces, I can assure you, we are heavy into mining others beyond diamonds. “We are facilitating more prospecting across the Kalahari Copper Belt and across some metal zones in the north-eastern part of Botswana and we anticipate that there's gold and other minerals there. “In addition, in the southern part of Botswana, we know we have hit a platinum and chrome belt.”
The Kalahari Copperbelt, the under-developed 1,000-kilometre belt in the west known to contain millions of tonnes of copper and other critical minerals, is fast becoming one of the global hotspots for exploration. While the “diamonds or” argument continues, other developers such as MMG are fast-tracking $900 million investment to expand their operations on the belt, while another producer, Sandfire Resources, presented numbers at the recent Mining Indaba, demonstrating the profitability of the Copperbelt.
The Australian Securities Exchange group shared that it invested $71 million in exploration at its licences on the Kalahari Copperbelt, eventually uncovering a $4 billion resource from where copper began flowing in May 2023.
“I believe that there is no real, truer sign of economic viability than investing such a small percentage and getting a real Return on Investment on the mining side,” said Kenewendo.
Bank of Botswana figures released recently indicate that copper exports in the first 11 months of last year hit P10.1 billion, averaging P915.1 million per month, compared to P9.3 billion over the same period in 2024, or an average of P843.7 million per month.
Over and above copper, other developers are reporting significant finds in other minerals such as uranium, iron ore and particularly those classified as “critical,” the highly sought-after group essential for modern economies in high-tech industries such as electric vehicles, clean energy and computing.
Canadian minerals firm, Tsodilo Resources, recently reported that it had discovered “significant critical minerals and rare earth element mineralisation” in its prospecting licences in north-western Botswana. In a statement to the Toronto Stock Exchange where Tsodilo is listed, the company said recent results from a drilling programme had uncovered various metals including 15 rare earth elements and critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, nickel, vanadium, and silver.
Much of the criticism in the debate around “diamonds or” has been that with the non-diamond minerals, government is facilitating development and not necessarily investing any of its own tight budget funds. With diamonds, however, the state is leading the funding of the revival efforts and plans to purchase a controlling stake in De Beers, point to even heavier financial commitments. These funds, critics say, could be put to better use funding the multi-billion transformational projects envisioned under the National Development Plan 12 and the public finance portion of the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme.
Those with a different view say the fact that diamond exports in the first 11 months of last year rose eight percent last year to P38.4 billion, indicates that with the right planning and appropriate partners, values could yet be revived in diamonds.
“At present, there is simply no other economic sector that can take over from government in terms of the effective tax rate, levies, royalties and other earnings, including employment figures and community impact, like diamonds,” an analyst following the debates told Mmegi. “The transformation through the BETP will take time to bear fruit, but there are urgent needs at government, local authority and community level that require those incomes from diamonds to keep coming in. “At the very least, the effort should be made to ensure that diamonds provide the room we need to pivot towards other sources of economic activity and budget revenues.”
The performance of diamonds this year, given the interventions being rolled out by government and its partners, is being closely watched by those with voices in the “diamonds or” debate.