Belt and road: A strategic tool for one-China policy

Solly Rakgomo | Monday February 9, 2026 09:51

This has led to Taiwan’s international isolation, reducing its diplomatic allies to a very limited number and confining recognition to only a few countries. China’s relationship with countries of the Global South is characterised by their non-recognition of Taiwan, with Beijing stipulating adherence to the “One China” principle as a prerequisite for establishing diplomatic or economic relations.

China maintains that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory and the Chinese mainland. Furthermore, China pursues a policy of economic diplomacy and development aid to countries of the Global South, offering large-scale investments and assistance within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative.

This has enticed many developing countries, such as Honduras, Panama, and, formerly, the Dominican Republic, to sever ties with Taiwan in exchange for strengthening their partnership with Beijing. Thus, China has succeeded in defending its domestic policies and the One China principle, as well as Taiwan’s international isolation. Beijing has also succeeded in reducing the number of countries in the Global South that recognise Taiwan to only about 12-13 worldwide, such as Guatemala, Paraguay, and Eswatini. In addition to securing mutual support in international forums on its domestic issues and the recognition of Taiwan, China has obtained political support and positive votes from countries in the Global South at the United Nations and other international organisations, strengthening its position in exchange for defending these countries’ interests against Western influence.

Based on China’s continuous and unwavering support for countries in the Global South, China has succeeded in reducing Taiwan’s diplomatic presence. It has also succeeded in closing or changing the names of any Taiwanese representative offices in countries of the Global South, to transform recognition of Taiwan into that of a “non-independent” entity. Beijing uses this approach to ensure that the Taiwan issue remains an internal matter, especially given the development needs of countries in the Global South, thus ensuring their political loyalty to China on the One China principle and their non-recognition of Taiwan. Here, China uses the Belt and Road Initiative as a strategic tool to enhance its influence in the Global South through massive infrastructure investments.

This ensures countries’ adherence to the “One China” principle and prevents recognition of Taiwan. Beijing reinforces this approach through loans, ports, and development projects to deepen political ties. Here, China is employing the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance its influence and prevent the recognition of Taiwan by linking aid to recognition: China ties its investments and projects within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative to countries’ adherence to the “One China principle”, thus pressuring developing countries to sever or not establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan. With China’s success in building extensive development relationships with countries of the Global South through its Belt and Road Initiative by financing infrastructure projects (ports, railways, and roads), China ensures the dependence of borrowing countries on the Chinese economy, making it easier to impose certain political positions.

On the other hand, China has succeeded in enhancing its diplomatic influence in international institutions. Here, China has successfully used its Belt and Road Initiative to strengthen alliances with countries of the Global South (especially in Africa and Asia), which has given it support in the United Nations and international forums for not recognising Taiwan.

China has also succeeded in consolidating the Chinese model globally, as it has presented its Belt and Road Initiative as a model for global governance and development that focuses on state-led economic development and has attracted many developing countries and regimes, thus enhancing Beijing’s political influence. China has also succeeded in garnering significant political support, as Chinese investment has led to widespread backing for its positions on issues such as Taiwan and Xinjiang. Many Arab and African countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative have expressed their unwavering support for China’s sovereignty. Through these mechanisms, the Belt and Road Initiative has become an effective geopolitical tool for achieving Beijing’s strategic objectives, primarily containing Taiwan and expanding its influence in the Global South.

China has also successfully leveraged the Belt and Road Initiative to bolster its political and economic influence in developing countries through massive investments in infrastructure projects and the provision of loans.

This has led to increased economic dependence of these countries on Beijing and their support for China in international forums, thanks to the availability of a Chinese alternative to Western financial institutions. Here, China utilises its Belt and Road Initiative by enhancing economic influence through the export of surplus capital and productive capacity. China uses the initiative as a mechanism for exporting its surplus capital and production capacity in the construction sector abroad, while ensuring access to resources and markets. China’s infrastructure projects, such as building ports and roads, help secure access to natural resources and open new markets for its companies and products in developing countries. China is also attempting to create economic interdependence through its Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to redirect a significant portion of the global economy towards China. This makes participating countries more dependent on the Chinese economy and increases Beijing’s economic and, consequently, political and diplomatic influence over them to adopt pro-China stances.

On the other hand, China has sought to establish parallel financing mechanisms to support its Belt and Road Initiative. China has created special financing mechanisms such as the Silk Road Fund and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to finance projects, bypassing traditional Western financial institutions.

Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has also succeeded in enhancing its political influence and gaining diplomatic leverage. Beijing has used its financial generosity to influence the domestic and foreign policies of partner countries and has succeeded, for example, in persuading several countries to withdraw their diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. By successfully building long-term relationships through the implementation of vital infrastructure projects, China is working to establish close and lasting ties with developing countries and the developing Global South, thus expanding its influence in regions historically dominated by Western powers.

Accordingly, we can understand the extent of China’s success in employing its Belt and Road Initiative to shape global economic and political rules, preventing recognition of Taiwan as an internal Chinese matter. China’s growing economic influence has enabled it to attempt to shape the rules and standards governing global economic and political affairs to its advantage. This includes exporting the Chinese governance model, particularly to developing countries of the Global South and globally.