De Beers or the copper century?

KAI XUE | Tuesday January 20, 2026 11:43

The Botswana government has in mind a consortium with partners such as the Oman Investment Authority and/or Angola's Endiama to spread the risk of any acquisition. Even so, taking control of a loss-making business would still require significant borrowing, placing real strain on Botswana's public finances.

Despite significant challenges, Botswana is the only mainland country in sub-Saharan Africa with investment-grade sovereign debt. Buying a controlling stake in De Beers risks putting that hard-won credibility at stake. Whether the investment makes sense comes down to two questions: can De Beers be successfully turned around under state ownership, and are there alternative uses of Botswana's sovereign resources that would better secure the country's long-term future?

To be sure, De Beers is not beyond rescue. Several consortiums are competing with the Botswana-led group, including two led by former De Beers CEOs. Yet the turnaround is ambitious: under CEO Al Cook, the company aims to transform from a mining operation into what he calls 'the world's greatest jewellery maison [house].'

De Beers is expanding its retail footprint, planning to triple its store count from just over 30 locations today to 100 by 2030. Its new flagship on Paris's Rue de la Paix is set to open this month, promising visitors 'diamond jewellery, unique high jewellery pieces, and a luxurious shopping experience.'

At the same time, De Beers is trying to revive its appeal to younger consumers. One survey finds that only 22% of Gen Z in America say it matters that a diamond is natural. Reconnecting with this generation determines whether the diamond industry can slow its structural decline under pressure from lab-grown stones, which now account for more than half of US engagement ring sales by volume and around 20% of global jewellery sales by value.

The turnaround is meant to focus on luxury retail and branding, an uneasy fit for state ownership even if professional managers remain in place after the acquisition. State ownership can preserve heritage luxury built on tradition, but it is poorly suited to the constant reinvention required to restore relevance in a changing consumer market. Luxury brands depend on concentrated authority and rapid creative leadership changes, conditions that are mismatched with state holding companies.

The question of how else Botswana might invest for future generations can be answered by looking at Anglo American. In selling its controlling stake in De Beers, the company is refocusing on copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients. While exiting diamonds, Anglo American is doubling down on copper, a metal at the heart of the energy transition and AI expansion, facing a structural supply – demand gap likely to last for decades. S&P Global projects a global supply shortfall of 10 million metric tons by 2040 (25% below projected demand).

Copper prices are likely to rise sharply, and Botswana is well positioned to join the coming copper century, with the Kalahari Copper Belt running through the country. MMG, a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation, recently approved a $900 million expansion of the Khoemacau Copper Mine, with further production increases expected in later phases.

There is also potential to revive mining around Selebi-Phikwe following the liquidation of BCL Limited in 2016. Much of the belt remains underexplored due to sand cover, offering additional upside for modern exploration. Combined with Botswana's political stability and judicial independence, these factors make copper development the country's strongest path to long-term economic growth.

Focusing on copper, however, does not mean turning away from diamonds. Botswana can have it both ways. Whoever controls De Beers will still need a reliable supply of ethically sourced diamonds to appeal to Gen Z consumers, and Botswana will remain an indispensable source of ethical diamonds from Africa.

The allure of owning the brand that has shaped both the diamond industry and Botswana's economic history is undeniable, yet the country's tradition of fiscal prudence points to placing its greatest bet elsewhere. Copper is the mineral poised to define the century ahead. While a diamond may be forever, the copper century promises to endure for generations in Botswana.

*Kai Xue is a mining lawyer in Beijing. In his work at DeHeng Law, Xue has Xue has participated in various transactions including cross-border banking & finance, outbound investment and foreign direct investment