Top economic events to watch for in 2026
Mbongeni Mguni - Lewanika Timothy | Monday January 12, 2026 06:03
The economy will almost certainly be shown to have experienced a contraction for 2025, when the fourth quarter GDP figures are revealed on March 31. The economy has not incurred successive economic contractions in any two years since Independence, a trend that underlines the deep distress facing the country.
The Finance Ministry expects that the economy contracted by 0.9% in 2025, but other experts caution such as the IMF have forecast a one percent narrowing, all largely driven by the prolonged downturn in diamonds.
Let’s take a look at what else Mmegi’s BusinessWeek will be tracking this year:
Cobbled budget
As statutory norm, the Minister of Finance will deliver the budget speech on the first Monday of February, setting the tempo fiscal and market performance for the year. This year’s budget however is expected to be either slimmer or similar to last year’s budget as government continues to implement austerity measures to slow down spending.
Fiscal planners have been having a tough time cobbling the budget together, as evidenced by delay in publishing the inaugural midterm review and the Budget Strategy Paper. The 2026-2027 budget has the tough expectations of being expansionary in order to stimulate economic activity by increasing government spending while also Finance Ministry technocrats are pushing for contractionary measures to slow spending as revenues remain mute.
The main challenges affecting expansionary spending stem from tightened revenues particularly from the low mineral earnings, as the prolonged diamond downturn continues.
Despite an overall revenue downturn, the 2025/2026 budget showed a better-than-expected deficit, due to slower spending, particularly in the latter half of the year.
Total revenues and grants as at September 2025 stood at P35.06 billion, representing 46 percent of the 2025-2026 budget estimate, while total expenditure and net lending for the period amounted to P39.31 billion representing 40 percent of the original budget. The half year period ended with a deficit of P4.25 billion, or 1.5 percent of GDP against a deficit of P22.12 billion, projected for the financial year.
Shiny stones
Diamonds, the mainstay of Botswana’s economy, remain pivotal in sustaining economic performance due to their hefty contribution to government’s coffers. Predictions point to a continued weakness in the diamond sector, with spillovers from global growth deceleration, and the adverse impact of protectionist trade measures, notably US tariffs. Fiscal pressures stemming from reduced mining revenues continue to constrain government expenditure, with knock-on effects on government procurement dependent sectors.
The country’s diamond mines produced 6.12 million carats in the third quarter, compared to 4.1 million carats last year, helping the economy to 8.2% year-on-year growth. Anglo American has said the higher third quarter production in Botswana was in anticipation of the extended plant maintenance downtime in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Interest in the diamonds this year will also center on the sale of Anglo Americas 85% stake in De Beers. The sale has attracted interest from sovereigns with Botswana leading the pack ready to leverage its right of first refusal to snap up full ownership. Anglo is expected to soon release a shortlist of potential buyers.
Costly lights
Consumers are watching with concern as the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority progresses public debate on the 46% average increase in electricity tariffs requested by the Botswana Power Corporation (BPC).
The Corporation has asked for an increase of 68% for households.
The tariff requests come as the cost of living has generally been on the rise with consumers battling increased prices from all ends. For the BPC, tariffs are not yet cost-reflective, while sole shareholder, government, has signaled that it cannot support subsidies into perpetuity.
According to documents filed by the Corporation with the regulator, the BPC is seeking a 68% tariff increase for domestic consumers, 41% for government and 40% each for commercial users and mining operations.
Public hearings into the tariff request are due in February and any decision taken will likely take effect from April 1.
Copper boom
One of the brightest spots for the local economy is the base metals sector, where copper prices reached historical highs this week, surging past $13,000 per tonne for the first ever, on Monday.
The spike, powered by supply constraints and US tariff concerns, is a timely blessing for Khoemacau, Motheo and Kopano Copper, the country’s three producers of the commodity.
Between January and August last year, the three exported P7.5 billion of copper, compared to P6.8 billion in the prior period, amounts that are critical for the economy in terms of royalties and taxes earned by government, as well as forex earned in-country.
Besides revenues, Khoemacau and Motheo are both progressingexpansions this year, both on the production side as well as through expenditure on exploration, factors which bode well for economic activity.
NexMetals, meanwhile, is rapidly advancing its projects at the former BCL Mine in Selebi Phikwe and at Selkirk, one of the mines at the old Tati Nickel. Fundraising and various technical studies are progressing, helped by a letter of interest from the US Export-Import Bank for $150 million.
Tataki reborn
Tataki Mine, formerly known as Tati Nickel, is set to resume operations with production scheduled for the third quarter of 2026, signalling a major revival in Botswana’s mining sector.
GCR Group, the US-firm which now owns Tataki Mine, is ramping up studies and activities on the site, while mobilising new technology and labour, ahead of the restart of commercial operations.
Formerly known as Tati Nickel, the base metal mining operation closed in 2016 during the global meltdown in the sector. Ten years after the closure, copper, nickel, cobalt and other associated metals contained in the grounds at the former mine have become amongst the world’s most sought-after due to their use in advanced technologies, electric vehicles and renewable energy.
The new Tataki, located near Francistown in the Matsiloje area, will produce a diverse range of metals and hydroxide salts that are widely traded internationally. Key products will include nickel and cobalt hydroxide precipitates, copper cathodes, metal bars for platinum group metals (platinum, palladium, rhodium), and other precious metals.
Singita launches
Many global eyes this year will be on the launch of Singita Elela, a luxury resort being developed in the Okavango Delta.
The South African group announced that through the lodge, Singita guests would also have exclusive access to one of the largest concessions in the region – 170 000 hectares of pristine wilderness.
The Delta is the country’s most prized tourism destination, with nights fetching in the thousands of US dollars, and the clients who fly in from across the world have to book well in advance to experience the World Heritage Site.
Singita, a 31-year-old group, operates luxury private lodges in South Africa, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
Already, top publications such as Bloomberg have singled out Singita as one of the global travel highlights, a must-travel for those interested in the high-end safari experience.
The tourism group has said Elela will celebrate the Delta’s essence of eternal cycles and continuity. The new lodge concept will “echo this with an ease embedded into the design and experience it offers, which will place the spirit of this wonder-filled oasis at its centre.”
Stanchart deal
Standard Chartered Bank Botswana (SCBB) is expected to identify the buyer of its Wealth and Retail Banking unit this year, an eagerly anticipated deal that will upend the local banking sector.
In its most recent communications on the matter late last year, SCBB’s board said a shortlist of bidders had been developed and the company was in the process of evaluating proposals.
SCBB’s Wealth and Retail Banking unit had assets of P7.4 billion as at June 2025., with pretax profits of P101.9 million over the same period.
Authoritative insiders have said BBS Bank is leading the shortlist of bidders, with the financial backing of the Botswana Public Officers Pension Fund, the country’s largest pension fund. For BBS Bank, snapping up SCBB’s unit would be a successful manoeuvre, catapulting the young bank into the ranks of the country’s Big Four in banking.
SCBB’s exit is part of a wider restructuring plan by parent company, Standard Chartered PLC, which is reshaping its global footprint by exiting mass retail markets that no longer provide a strong strategic rationale.