UDC widens margin in a by-election

Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Monday November 24, 2025 06:00

The party widened the margin between itself and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) by 210 votes compared to the results of the 2024 General Election. This development is particularly significant because by-elections often draw fewer voters and tend to favour ruling parties due to voter fatigue, low turnout, or reduced campaign intensity. Nevertheless, the UDC appears to have defied these typical patterns, signalling a shift, or at least a reaffirmation, of political sentiment in the constituency.

Although voter turnout was lower than expected, partly due to heavy rainfall and other personal or logistical reasons, UDC’s ability to increase its numerical advantage suggests that its support base remains both committed and mobilised. However, in this case, the UDC not only maintained its presence but strengthened its position. This resilience speaks to both the party’s organisational capacity and the loyalty of its supporters, who showed up despite the unfavourable weather conditions.

To put these developments into perspective, it is important to revisit the 2024 General Election results. During the 2024 polls, the UDC secured a total of 8,700 votes, while the BDP obtained 6,070 votes. The Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), though not a dominant force in the constituency, managed to garner 1,074 votes. This placed the UDC firmly ahead with a margin of 2,630 votes over the BDP. The numbers reinforced the UDC’s influence in the area and suggested that it had the advantage moving into any future electoral contests.

In contrast, the recent by-election presented an interesting shift in voter distribution. The UDC received 6,766 votes, while the BDP garnered 3,926 votes. Although both major parties experienced a decline in raw vote totals, a common trend in by-elections, the UDC managed to preserve and even grow its margin.

The gap expanded to 2,840 votes, an increase of 210 compared to the previous General Election. This growth in margin, despite lower overall participation, is a critical indicator of the UDC’s sustained appeal. It also raises meaningful questions about the challenges the ruling party may face in reclaiming its competitiveness in this constituency.

Another noteworthy development in the by-election was the performance of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), which returned to contest in the area after a long absence. The BCP received 946 votes, a respectable figure considering its limited recent presence in the constituency. Its re-entry into the race likely influenced the overall distribution of opposition votes, though not enough to threaten the UDC’s firm lead.

The presence of a BCP candidate adds a new layer of complexity to future electoral dynamics, as it may draw support from voters who previously aligned with either of the two dominant parties. Meanwhile, an independent candidate also participated in the by-election, got 116 votes. Independent candidates often face challenges in mobilising large segments of the electorate without the backing of established party structures, yet their participation contributes to a more diverse and competitive political environment.

Perhaps, the most dramatic decline was observed in the performance of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF). The party, which secured 1,074 votes in the 2024 General Election, dropped significantly to just 99 votes in the by-election. Such a steep decrease may reflect internal party challenges, reduced campaign visibility, or a strategic shift by its supporters toward other opposition parties, particularly the UDC.

The BPF’s drop suggests a major realignment of political loyalties in the constituency, one that may ultimately benefit the UDC if former BPF voters consolidate their support under its umbrella. Taken together, these results paint a picture of a constituency where the UDC continues to solidify its position as the leading political force.

The widening margin, even in the face of reduced voter turnout, not only boosts the party's morale but also signals potential challenges for the BDP as it seeks to regain lost ground. Moreover, the BCP’s return and modest performance introduce new variables that could shape future contests, especially if the party decides to strengthen its presence ahead of the next polls. While by-elections typically serve as low-stakes political events, this particular contest offers valuable insights into voter sentiment and emerging political shifts.

The UDC’s improved margin suggests a consolidation of support and possibly growing confidence amongst its followers. At the same time, the BDP faces the difficult task of reassessing its strategy in order to remain competitive in a constituency where its support appears to be waning.