A P388bn bet on transformation
Mbongeni Mguni | Monday October 27, 2025 15:20
There’s a wonderful thing about words, how two seemingly similar words can mean totally different things. Wordsmiths know this very well how connotations and context flow in between unassuming letters, words and sentences.
The difference between a “bold” plan and an “ambitious” one is, thus miles apart. The first is aspirational, something the planners can be proud of aiming for, while the other sounds, well, dreamier, or not grounded in reality at best.
The draft NDP 12 can probably be best described as both bold and ambitious. While final figures, programmes, policies and projects have not been finalised by legislators, the draft circulating points to the highest ever expenditure proposed for an NDP and the strongest swing for transformation yet.
And of necessity, it had to be. The NDP is being developed at a time when the long-delayed economic reforms around diversification and the role of the state in development, have been become an urgent necessity due to the steep downturn in diamonds and the economy-wide impact of this.
As extraordinary crises require extraordinary measures, the NDP naturally had to carry an abnormal load of “Business Unusual,” spending so bold, planning so radical and targets so ambitious that would reverse decades of declining economic and social indicators, to reset the country’s developmental trajectory.
On the flip side, however, even the most optimistic will harbour concerns.
The NDP 12 has been developed at a time when the country’s traditional sources of revenue are at their weakest in decades, when public debt is not only climbing but interest payments getting more expensive due to credit ratings downgrades and when the fiscus has been living hand to mouth for an extended period.
The country is projected to suffer two successive years of recession for the first time since Independence and economic mainstay Debswana, has just 40% of its resources left, which will be harder and costlier to access, but more difficult to sell and ultimately cheaper for buyers, due to the structural global changes in the diamond market.
Other upcoming sources of economic activity and budget revenues, such as critical minerals, tourism, agriculture, are yet to occupy the diamond mining-sized hole in the economy. Services, which are now the main output of the economy, are still largely dependent on government, which in turn continues to look wistfully to diamonds for the bulk of its revenues.
For the optimists, these challenges are the reason why the NDP 12 had to be as big and as bold as it is. The minds behind NDP 12 are aware of the huge mountains in funding they have to climb and have said the plan is limited to what can be raised.
For the first, as expected and as previously announced, NDP 12 swings strongly toward private sector funding, with the Public Investment Programme (PIP) dominated by private-sector initiatives. The PIP is a strategic medium-term investment plan of Government comprising costed projects. Many of the projects will be done under the Public Private Partnership (PPP), described in the plan as a contractual arrangement between a governmental institution and a private party whereby.
“During NDP 12, realisation of the delivery of programmes and projects will be a joint collaboration effort between government and the private Sector,” the draft reads. “With envisaged limited government revenue during NDP 12, there is need to mobilise diverse funding sources of the Plan such as PPP, Community Public Partnerships, donor funding, self-liquidating, Investor Partnership Programmes amongst others. “This therefore calls for a robust inclusive resource mobilisation as well as the financing strategy to ensure delivery of the Plan. “The budget envelope will serve as a basis for supporting all public projects.”
The rundown
Just from browsing through the over 400-pages of the draft, here is a snapshot of statements, as well as projects in the proposed NDP. The list is by no means exhaustive and the drafters also caution that feasibility of spending is tied to the realities of the economy and other fundraising efforts.
Statements
• Introduction of the petroleum products preferential supply mandate (90 percent) for the national oil company inhibits private sector participation and fair market competition, and requires urgent review. “The current status, where the national oil company has been mandated a major share to import and sole supply, poses a major risk to the supply of petroleum products in case of non-performance.”
• Government has approximately 21,520 building assets of which 31 percent are in a bad state, 39.4 percent are in a fair condition and 30 percent are in a good condition. “A number of bad facilities have been abandoned due to various reasons.”
• The delivery of policies, strategies, programmes and projects of the Public Investment Portfolio projects and public services to the nation has been a challenge. “According to the National Planning Commission’s 2025-26 Quarter 1 Projects Progress Report, the share of projects progressing within schedule, budget and scope stood at zero percent during the reporting period, and this has been the status quo observed over the past three years.”
Projects
• National Digital ID linked directly to a modernised payments infrastructure. The project is proposed to be funded and led by the private sector, being linked to digital financial inclusion and economic transformation. “This unified platform will allow citizens to prove their identity once and then instantly open bank accounts, obtain SIM cards, access social benefits and transact across providers without repeating paperwork or paying multiple fees.”
• Chobe Zambezi Water Transfer Scheme ranks as one of the costliest projects proposed under NDP 12. The P9 billion estimate will be done as a PPP, with the private sector taking the lead. Under the scheme, Botswana would draw 495 million cubic metres of water per annum to cater for agricultural needs such as in Pandamatenga and potable requirements all the way down to the South
• Various railways and road projects collectively take up the bulk of the estimated funding required for NDP12. The long-awaited Trans-Kalahari Railway, for instance, is the single biggest expense item in the NDP, at a budget of P56.7 billion over the five financial years. The dualisation of the A1 highway is also planned under NDP 12, with a total estimated cost of P18.7 billion over the planning period. The transport projects are all private sector led, meaning that they will be done under a PPP arrangement
The response
Initial reactions to the draft NDP are still filtering through. The bulky document is still going through Parliament and as legislators respond, other stakeholders in the economy are equally studying the proposals.
Unlike previous NDP’s current draft does not include projections and forecasts around the economy, prominent economist, Keith Jefferis said.
“There seems to be a lot of good intentions, a lot about objectives, but I think how convincing is it?” said he said recently at the Bifm annual conference. “Unfortunately, it's not the old NDP that I was used to in the days when I had a role in preparing these things. “Normally the NDP was run off with macroeconomic projections and the fiscal framework, those things are both missing meaning how rooted is it, in what's happening in the economy?”
Jefferis also queried the numbers in the PIP, specifically the estimated spending of P388 billion.
“It includes a public investment plan totalling P378 billion; I find this unbelievable because at the same time, of course, government is talking about fiscal consolidation which means keeping on top of the budget. “As far as I can see from my own budget framework which I keep updating on a regular basis, the most they'll have to spend is about P120 billion and so the P370 billion in public investment projects is not really likely to be feasible,” Jefferis said.
Many of the projects in the NDP 12 are not new to financiers in the economy. Besides some of them being touted in previous NDP, quite a few of them emerged from the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme, which included an open call for project ideas recently.
Of the 7,000 ideas received, 186 projects have been selected under the BETP, with about 60 of these ready for immediate implementation.
Financiers such as banks, asset managers and development finance institutions recently had sight of 13 projects during an investor roundtable, where each project was pitched, with disclosures of feasibility, costing, returns and transformational impact.
For many in the private sector, NDP 12 represents a turning point where government actually concretises its “private sector-led economy” mantra.
“It has actually been very encouraging that government has been reaching out to the private sector,” Steve Bogatsu, First National Bank Botswana CEO told Mmegi in a recent interview. “We have already had those engagements with government, Bank of Botswana and the Ministry of Finance, where after the initial presentation on the 13 projects, they contacted us individually as financial institutions, as banks, to say, what role can you play? “We have indicated the space that we want to play in and we are ready to assist.”
FNBB, the country’s largest commercial bank, says it is ready to partner government both in terms of helping to fund transformation, but also in lending its global ecosystem of expertise and experience.
“The posture that we are seeing from government is an encouraging one that allows all of us to actually not just fold our arms and say it is a government problem. “They have allowed us to come in and play the role that we should be playing in order to advance the economy forward,” Bogatsu said.
The country’s second largest bank, Absa Bank Botswana, says it is similarly committed.
“We stand ready to provide the resources, expertise, and partnerships needed to support the continued growth and diversification of our economy,” managing director, Keabetswe Pheko-Moshagane said at the Botswana Mining Show this week.
Similar commitments have been made by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, both key development partners to Botswana over decades.
The question
Whether the NDP 12 is bold or ambitious will ultimately be a question of its impact on ordinary citizens. At present, Batswana are wresting with restrained opportunities in the economy, rising inflation, particularly in food, and the “pit of the stomach” fear of worse to come.
It’s a national anxiety acknowledged even by President Duma Boko who recently noted despair on the part of many “even leaders”.
The first effect, therefore, of the draft NDP 12 is whether it can restore hope to citizens, in its bold and ambitious proposals. Or at least assuage fears.
Thus far, planners appear to have the support of potential financiers, but ordinary citizens, many of whom have become disillusioned and hardened by unfulfilled plans of the past, may be more difficult to convince.