Nature vs nurture: The battle for the soul of the diamond
STEVEN BENSON | Monday October 13, 2025 06:00
These seemingly unrelated conversations capture the tension defining the diamond industry today, as an ancestral trade built on rarity and romance faces off against an avalanche of easily affordable, laboratory‑grown diamonds (LGDs). The stakes are high, especially in the countries that are reliant on the revenues provided by their natural diamond resources.
A shock to the system
Botswana has long epitomised the success of natural diamonds. The southern African country’s partnership with De Beers, and most notably their joint ownership of Debswana, one of the world’s two largest diamond mining companies, built schools, hospitals and infrastructure, creating Africa’s most stable economy.
But the government announced in June of this year that Debswana’s output would tumble to around 15 million carats, a fall of close to 40 percent from 2023 levels. Citing weak global demand and new trade tariffs, officials idled production at the giant Jwaneng and Orapa mines. It was a decision that highlighted the vulnerability of economies that depend on diamond revenue.
The fall in global market demand, however, actually predated the current U.S. government tariff policy. A number of other factors were thus also responsible, among them a sharp contraction of Chinese market demand, largely attributed to the country’s slow recovery from the COVID crisis.
But also responsible was the glut of lab‑grown diamonds that had flooded the market. And because they are produced industrially, and not through geology, their supply was virtually limitless. As producers ramped up output, the cost of production per unit fell and the price of the finished product came down – slowly at first, and then very rapidly.
In this respect, LGD behaved very similarly to other manufactured products. In 1984, for example, the original Hewlett-Packard LaserJet printer cost $3,495, which is more than $10,000 in today’s U.S. dollars. By 2002, monochrome laser printers cost $200, and today you can pick one up for less than $100, in spite of inflation.
According to market analyst Edahn Golan, the price of one-carat lab-grown diamonds went down about 75 percent between January 2000 and December 2023, from $3,410 to just $892. This created a drag on polished diamond prices, albeit at a more modest rate. The average price of a one‑carat natural diamond. which had peaked at $6,819 in May 2022, fell to $4,997 by December 2024, a decline of about 27 percent.
An elusive dream becomes reality
The first known diamond synthesis took place in Stockholm at ASEA, Sweden’s major electrical equipment manufacturing company, in February 1953. But the mass production of synthetic diamonds, for industrial purposes only occurred almost two years later, in December 1954, when General Electric produced the world’s first batch of non-natural stones.
It was not until the 1970s, however, that the technology was refined to a point that a gem-quality diamond could be created. And, even then, gem‑quality synthetic diamonds remained curiosities until the 2010s, when start‑ups in the United States, and later India and China, perfected both high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) and chemical‑vapor deposition (CVD) processes for mass producing stones of a quality suitable for jewellery.
The marketing approach taken by many in the new industry sector was controversial. Insisting that their manufacturers’ products shared essentially the same physical characteristics as natural diamonds, they nonetheless pitched them as being more environmentally responsible, because they were not mined, and as more socially responsible, because they were not associated with conflict in any way. These were questionable and generally unsubstantiated claims, but they gained traction among younger consumers.
But, while the LGD producers sought to differentiate themselves from the legacy natural producers, they were just as insistent on maintaining the connection. They deliberately linked the price of synthetic stones to the price of natural polished stone of equivalent sizes and qualities, albeit at a discount – nominal at first but increasingly large over time.
A disruptor in the LGD sector
De Beers entered the fray in 2018. Already one of the world’s largest producers of synthetic diamonds for industrial purposes, it launched Lightbox, a lab-grown diamond brand for jewellery.
In creating Lightbox, De Beers intended being a disruptive force in the new sector. Its goods would be sold at fixed prices, initially for $800 per carat, be they colourless or pink or blue fancy colours. Its aim was to separate LGDs from the company’s natural gems, and to demonstrate that man‑made stones should be marketed like fashion accessories, not heirlooms.
Lightbox largely succeeded in proving a point. Wholesale LGD prices kept falling and eventually started decoupling from natural diamonds.
In May 2025 De Beers announced that it would wind down Lightbox and sell off its inventory. The company explained that wholesale LGD prices had tumbled by about 90 percent since the brand’s launch, and were now tracking a cost‑plus model. Closing Lightbox, De Beers said, would allow the group to reallocate investment toward campaigns that are “focused on reinvigorating desire for natural diamonds.”
Chief Executive Officer Al Cook underscored the reasoning for shutting down Lightbox, pointing out that competition from Chinese factories and discount retailers in the United States meant the cost and price of lab‑grown diamonds would continue to fall.
A brand versus a generic product
Advocates of synthetic stones have compared them to generic drugs – chemically identical to their branded counterparts but far cheaper. Yet historically, a natural diamond’s value has never been predicated on its functional purpose, as would a headache tablet, but rather on its symbolism. This is supported by the fact natural diamonds form over billions of years under the Earth’s crust, and their relative scarcity underpins their mystique.
It raises a philosophical question: Can a man‑made diamond carry the same emotional weight as a gem forged deep within the planet? To many in the trade, the answer is no. They contend that consumers may choose a synthetic stone for everyday jewellery, but will still seek out natural gems for milestone occasions, because of their unique history.
But it is clear that the LGD category has precipitated changes in jewellery buying habits, particularly where younger consumers are concerned. It’s even impacted the diamond engagement market, where in 2024, according to Edahn Golan, 45.3 percent of the rings sold in the United States were set with lab-grown diamonds.
Rallying to tell a natural story
The challenge, therefore, is a marketing one, and it requires redefining, or at the very least refining the natural stone’s value proposition, so that it resonates more strongly with younger generations.
The brief to defend the position of the natural product has been assigned to the Natural Diamond Council (NDC), which was founded as the Diamond Producers Association in 2015, about the same time that LGD was establishing itself as viable market factor.
Much of its early work involved creating a clear distinctions natural and synthetic goods, including establishing the ASSURE programme, which examined the efficacy of technologies being used to screen for and identify synthetic and simulated diamonds. But it began concentrating on consumer-focused category marketing when it was restructured as the NDC in 2022.
Signatories to the Luanda Accord following the signing ceremony in June 2025, who included Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), agreed to allocate one percent of their revenues from rough diamond sales to a fund that will finance the generic promotion of natural diamonds by the Natural Diamond Council. Also signing the agreement were the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), the African Diamond Producers Association, India’s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) and the De Beers Group.
According to the terms of the agreement, all contributions will be funnelled to the Natural Diamond Council, which shall be tasked with overseeing and executing a global generic marketing strategy.
The Luanda Accord committed its signatories to “boost consumer interest in, understanding of and demand for natural diamonds” through storytelling and education. It recognised that, in a world awash with inexpensive LGDs, the most powerful advantage the natural stones possess is its narrative. This is expressed through its connection to the earth’s very formation, to the wellbeing of indigenous communities in Africa and to human milestones.
No marketing campaign can halt the decline in synthetic prices. Technology will continue to make LGDs cheaper and more abundant. The same is not necessarily true of natural stones, but storytelling is a required to bolster demand in markets that face economic headwinds.
The natural diamond industry’s challenge is to make the intangible qualities of its legend resonate with new generations. If successful, the miner in Botswana may not need to worry about another production cut, and for the couple in Denver, a natural diamond would be the obvious choice for a life-affirming moment. (World Diamond Council)
*Steven Benson is with WDC Communications