Great Expectations and the approaching forensic audit

Mbongeni Mguni - Sharon Mathala | Monday October 13, 2025 06:47

The more indicators emerge of the difficult fiscal space within which government is operating, the higher the expectation amongst Batswana that the ongoing forensic audit will pinpoint and punish those whose greed contributed to the situation the country is in. The audit covers the years 2014 to 2024, a period when the country’s scores on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index dropped consistently, including a sharp dip in 2021 – the year after COVID-19 related emergency spending. Taxpayers’ frustrations are valid given that the last publicly available audit of public spending was for the year ended March 2022, more than three and a half years ago.

That last report, like many others, contained evidence of millions of pula misspent, wasted, abused or under-utilised, alongside the perennial trend of poor record-keeping across government’s vast footprint, a fact that hides other losses. Unlike the Auditor General’s reports, however, the teams of external auditors currently scouring the country and pouring over public spending, are looking for evidence of ill-intent, not just administrative mismanagement or bookkeeping errors. On March 20, when officially announcing the forensic audit, President Duma Boko set the bar high, boldly stating that the hunt will encompasses the entirety of government.

“We aim to recover what has been taken from the government. We want our funds to be used for their intended purposes,” the President said at the time. In August at the launch of a public call for tips, Boko announced that Alvarez and Marcell (A&M), the Dubai firm engaged by government for the forensic audit, had red flagged 30 entities for deeper inspection. “The forensic audit is now in phase two, which entails the detailed audit of the 30 entities to be covered under the schedule established by and between the government and A&M,” he said.

Difficult trails

A&M, which prides itself in “asking tough questions, listening well, digging in and rolling up our sleeves,” has its work cut out for it in identifying the trails of stolen or fraudulently abused public funds over the past decade.

The steering committee of the forensic audit and other entities related to the task, including the auditors themselves, are tight-lipped about the progress thus far. However, all indications are that the effort to identify suspicious dealings, track and recover funds and punish the guilty, will be a mountain to climb. A public finance expert explained the challenge to Mmegi.

“Think of it as switching on the light in your kitchen at night. The cockroaches all run away immediately and you can’t even see where they ran to. “You may have a suspicion where they are hiding but they move quickly and are difficult to trace. “Once you announce a forensic audit and detail the years you are looking at, perpetrators run to hide their deeds, dispose of evidence and erase any trace of their involvement.

“The tools for doing this are too numerous and evolving every day,” the expert said, requesting anonymity in order to respect the ongoing process. Where yesteryear public finance criminals were usually nabbed through evidence contained in manual records or records of ownership of physical proceeds of crime, the fraudsters involved in the 2014 to 2024 graft have the advantage of modern methods.

“There are actually legally registered international consultancies and agencies that help move money around and obfuscate its source,” the expert said. “They can move monies over borders to certain jurisdictions out of the reach of the usual mutual legal assistance requests and place it under layers of obscure ownerships and directorships. “When all else fails they can even place it in cryptocurrency wallets or similar products that are beyond reach most of the time.”

Other analysts who spoke to Mmegi said apart from the recovery, the very fact of proving fraudulent behaviour was also a challenge. Many times, suspicious dealings avoid the paperwork required to prove guilt and often involve proxies who may or may not be within the country.

Government’s poor accounting records and the lack of audited results for most state-owned entities also means the auditors have a shaky foundation to start their hunt.

“The Auditor General focuses on wastage, general abuse and accountability and over the years you can see the same cases being highlighted without resolution. “Proving the case is a challenge on its own, then actually locating people and getting them to account is another, which can be seen in the Auditor General’s reports over the years. “The people red-flagged for this audit are not just sitting and waiting to be interviewed; they are making plans to literally get away with it,” said an internal auditor.

As eager as Batswana are to see culprits identified, monies recovered and justice served, the actual outcomes of the forensic audit may not be as spectacular. The Dubai firm’s mandate also involves making recommendations on tightening loopholes and preventing future corruption, which is where more tangible outcomes may be seen.

Buzzing confidence

The Dubai firm acknowledges the challenges involved in forensic audits, according to notes posted to its website detailing the approach it generally takes to similar investigations. The notes were specifically about tracing funds and not the identification of culprits and suspicious transactions, which precedes the asset tracing.

“Funds tracing is not limited to following a linear path of bank transfers; rather, it often requires uncovering intricate networks of related party dealings,” the firm said.

“In many cases, illicit funds are deliberately routed through spouses, children, close associates, or entities with overlapping directorships.

“Shelf and shell companies, trusts, and opaque partnerships are frequently deployed to disguise beneficial ownership, making it appear as though funds have been legitimately transferred.”

The firm said tracing is further complicated by the diversion of funds into alternative asset classes. “Common strategies include the acquisition of real estate, luxury vehicles, bullion or cryptocurrency, or the rapid transfer of value into overseas jurisdictions beyond the immediate reach of domestic regulators and courts.

“Each of these transactions adds another strand to an already tangled web, requiring investigators to move beyond traditional techniques.”

The firm, however, is confident in its ability to ferret out culprits and says the starting point is assembling the right multidisciplinary team, including forensic accountants and investigators with global networks, who perform such work routinely, anticipating fraudsters’ tricks, and employing a multi-faceted investigative strategy from the outset. “Success in asset tracing begins with robust evidence gathering,” the firm said in its research note. “An overreliance on traditional discovery processes may be futile in fraud and corruption cases, as perpetrators are unlikely to voluntarily disclose incriminating details.

“Law enforcement can be a viable option, but with limited resources there is a higher risk of dissipation of assets by the time they have the resources to act. “Exploring the available civil options is key to maximising recoveries.” While it is not yet clear whether the forensic audit will be made public in February, the Great Expectations amongst citizens may have to be tampered with the reality of just how cunning and diabolical corruption is, especially in the modern age.