Five reasons to be hopeful about the economy
Mbongeni Mguni | Tuesday October 7, 2025 12:45
No one needs to be reminded that the economy is in trouble. It doesn’t take the 5.3% contraction in the second quarter to tell you that economic activity and opportunities have significantly tightened.
Much of the challenges are linked to the downturn in diamonds, which is now impacting on government revenues - the main driver of private sector activity and growth.
In the doom and gloom, however, are bright spots, areas of current and future growth to watch as anchors of a transformed economy.
Critical minerals
Critical minerals, a list which includes copper, nickel, lithium, various rare earths and others, are the top most reason to be hopeful in the economy. While for critics, these emerging minerals continue the economy’s dependence on mining, for realists, the country cannot be a spectator in the global, multibillion dollar hunt for these minerals.
A taste of the high demand for these minerals can be seen in the $1.7 billion price at which Khoemacau changed hands last year, the highest ever private sector deal locally and yet just one of many mergers and acquisitions globally.
Copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese and other associated metals contained in the grounds at the former mines are essential in advanced technologies, electric vehicles, and renewable energy.
The Export-Import Bank of the United States, which is leading that country’s bid to snap up critical minerals globally, has issued a $225 million of Letter of Interest for Giyani’s manganese project in Kanye and another $150 million Letter of Interest for NexMetal’s project to resuscitate BCL Mine.
Global Critical Resources Corp, a U.S firm, recently launched the reopening of Tati Nickel as Tataki and plans to invest $200 million over the next decade, spinning revenues of $4.2 billion, with $500 in taxes to government.
For government, the global critical minerals’ boom presents an opportunity tap into the country’s massive minerals resource for local, sustainable impact as well as value addition. Mowana Mine is now back in production as Kopano Copper, while the Kalahari Copperbelt holds significant untapped potential.
Running southwest to northeast, the 1,000-kilometre Kalahari Copperbelt is known to contain millions of tonnes amounts of copper, silver, lead, and the critical minerals sought after by the world. Just two mines, Khoemacau and Sandfire’s Motheo, are currently operational, while other players are at various stages of exploration.
Infinite tourism
Mining, no matter how precious the resource or transformational the impact, remains a finite resource, a reality that awaits many operations and communities around the country. Tourism, on the other hand, represents the economy’s dream of a resource – one with enduring value, employs even low-skilled citizens, brings in foreign currency and one that fosters a broad value ecosystem. It is also inimitable, being uniquely “Botswana,” and in being that, tourism also provides branding and goodwill for the country that also helps other economic sectors beyond tourism.
According to the last data from Statistics Botswana, the tourism sector and related industry employed 50,535 people in 2024, or just under seven percent of total employment. Of the total employed in these industries the majority or 21.3 percent (10,746) were aged between 25 and 29 years, while 48.2 percent were female.
Of the people employed in tourism and related industries, about 59% held secondary education level, indicating the accessibility of the sector in terms of employment.
While not specifically listed as an economic sector in Statistics Botswana’s publications on the Gross Domestic Product, tourism’s resilience can be seen in the performance of the “accommodation and food services” over the years. In the second quarter, while the economy retreated by 5.3%, accommodation and food services grew by 4.1% “chiefly driven by a 5.1% expansion in the accommodation activities sub-industry”.
Agriculture beckons
The saying “every problem is an opportunity in disguise” applies perfectly to the economic bright spot that is agriculture, or more specifically, the country’s huge food import bill. In just the first six months of the year, the country imported P6.94 billion in food, compared to P6.73 billion over the same period in 2024.
According to numbers from Statistics Botswana, cereals as well as various alcoholic beverages, including vinegar, dominate the monthly food import items, with sugar and sugar confectionary frequently featuring amongst the top three.
Cereals include maize, wheat, rice and sorghum, grains that government has spent billions of pula over the decades supporting local farmers to enhance their production of.
Statistics Botswana numbers show that between January and June, the country’s imports of various cereals reached P1.28 billion, dominated to a large extent by maize. Sorghum, the national staple, was the smallest imported item amongst the cereals, demonstrating growing self-sufficiency in the domestic economy.
The opportunities in agriculture lie in both produce and further processing of these harvests. The impact on the economy can be seen in the fact that agriculture dominated the the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme’s 12-week long call for ideas. Insiders who have seen the initial draft of the National Development Plan also report that agriculture is strongly represented in both the number of planned projects and the forecast spending, reflecting its importance in the transformed economy.
Human capital
One major bright spot for current and future economic prospects, is the country’s human capital. Although those languishing in unemployment and various forms of underemployment hate to hear it repeated, the country’s strongest resource is its human capital. The billions of Pula spent over the decades in educating and upskilling Batswana over the various economic sectors, is a key determinant of future economic growth.
The link between visionary skills development programmes and economic success can be clearly seen in the diamond processing arena. About two decades ago, the country had just one diamond cutting and polishing company until a revised sales agreement with De Beers in 2011 led to the explosion of the industry locally. Training and capacitation was fast-tracked, with young Batswana signing up for the new skills that were required.
Today, the sector employs thousands and is transforming from just cutting and polishing, into jewellery design and manufacturing.
Both local and foreign investors in areas of the economy where opportunities are arising, will be banking on not just high quality skills, but more young, literate, trainable and well-cultured citizen trainees.
Goodwill, governance
Arguably, the most critical reason why there is hope in the economy is a combination of global goodwill and governance. Botswana is amongst the most well-branded and universally beloved countries on the continent and in the world, frequently referred to as the Jewel of Africa and on social media, a kind of Wakanda.
The country’s stability, peace (including peace-loving citizens), the role of its forefathers in African diplomacy and the “rags to riches” story of prudent natural resource management, have lent significant goodwill to the country over the decades.
Where economic potential in most African countries is overshadowed by a history or tendency for conflict, human rights abuses and misgovernance, Botswana’s economic potential and trajectory enjoy positive global branding and support.
This, in turn, is supported tangibly by some of Africa and the world’s strongest institutions, with decades-long records of stability and predictability. Where key institutions such as the rule of law have crumbled under the lightest of tests in some countries, Botswana’s governance continues as a case study in “doing what is right, to achieve what is good”.
The importance of both global goodwill and governance as an economic bright spot can be seen in the reluctance of high quality investors and development finance institutions to participate in economies where conflict, civil unrest, state-led corruption, violence and other vices exist.
Despite the current contraction in the economy, Botswana has all the resources and ingredients to stabilise and set a path for transformation.