Botswana’s Diamond Destiny: Time to take control
CHAIM EVEN-ZOHAR | Thursday October 2, 2025 09:51
The sudden wealth pushed up the currency, strangled manufacturing, and left the country dangerously dependent on one resource. Economists later gave this syndrome a name: when resource wealth undermines the broader economy, you have Dutch Disease.
For decades, Botswana was the exception. It avoided corruption and wars. It invested in excellent health systems, in schools and infrastructure. It partly avoided the Dutch Disease. But make no mistake: it has now caught up with Botswana.
Diamonds are Botswana’s lifeblood, providing over 80% of export revenues. They built the nation’s pride and prosperity. But today the diamond industry is in deep crisis. Though the Trump administration is expected to reduce its reciprocal tariffs to zero for polished diamonds, the recovery of the diamond market and price stabilisation will take years. Natural diamond prices have slumped. Synthetic diamonds — chemically identical, flawless, and incredibly cheap — are flooding the market. Don’t kid yourselves: Consumers no longer care about origin. “Hybrid jewelry” (mixed jewelry) is everywhere: a natural center stone, synthetic side stones. Very soon, the world will simply call them all “diamonds.”
Lost Wealth, Missed Opportunities
For decades, Botswana did not know the true value of its diamonds. Profits were booked abroad. Colonial partners grew rich. The money that should have filled a sovereign wealth fund — like Norway’s oil fund — was lost.
In the last 20 years, Botswana learned to negotiate better. It clawed back a larger share. But still not enough. And now De Beers, 85% owned by Anglo American and 15% by Botswana, is up for sale. Valued around $4.9 billion, but no one wants it at that price. Burdened by loss-making Canadian mines, weakened by market collapse, De Beers is no longer the untouchable giant. Anglo wants to get rid of it. The price will probably go down further.
In the past, I have often had an opportunity to share my thoughts frankly with government leaders [ask David Magang!] or at conferences. I am not a Botswanan, but I have always shared the country’s diamond aspirations, visions and ambitions. Now it is the destiny of the people of Botswana that is at stake. Nothing less. But after 50 years of analysing the diamond trade, I am glad that I once more may share my thoughts on the current negotiations.
1. Demand immediate financial strength Any partner must provide at least a $1 billion loan to the government of Botswana. The loan must come not from an exclusive buyer — as in De Beers’ pre-financing of Russia in the 1990s — but from Botswana’s future partners, secured against tomorrow’s production, as the entry price for sharing in Botswana’s destiny. This is essential to stabilize Botswana’s finances and health system. 2. Insist on control—now
Whether through full ownership or structured rights, vital control must pass immediately to Botswana: production, sales, marketing, branding.
3. Use smart financing tools
• Vendor financing/earn-outs from Anglo, tied to future cash flows and price collars. • If total control is not instantly possible, negotiate a golden share on strategic issues, such as. but immediate control over production, sales, marketing, and branding policies. [Maybe a call-option ladder: immediate step-up to 26–34% shares, with pre-priced options to cross 50% later.] • Explore a partial IPO in London, Johannesburg, and Gaborone with a Botswana golden share. • Create a class of citizen shares at a discount, so every Motswana owns a piece of the rock and becomes a proud brand ambassador. 4. Drop the dead weight
Botswana should not be saddled with De Beers’ failing Canadian mines. Build a Botswana-First company free of foreign liabilities. 5. Stay away from Angola
If Angola wants De Beers, let them take the Angolan assets off the table. Sell that portfolio back to Endiama, reduce the purchase price, and keep Botswana’s brand free of Angolan baggage.” [Angola consistently ranks in the bottom quarter of Transparency International’s corruption index, underscoring the real risk to Botswana’s brand by partnering too closely.] To tie Botswana’s reputation to Angola would damage the Botswana First brand. If regional partnership is needed, Namibia is a better and reliable ally.
Botswana as a Brand, Like a Swiss Watch
Botswana must not waste energy fighting synthetics. That battle is lost. Instead, Botswana must build its brand. Think Rolex, not rough. Just as a Swiss watch is prized for heritage, precision, and prestige, so should a Botswana diamond—natural, synthetic, or hybrid—stand for authenticity and quality.
Imagine a Botswana-branded piece of jewelry: an heirloom, like a Rolex on the wrist. That brand will outlast the debate about origin. And don’t resist inclusion of synthetics; greater profits there will help offsetting higher mining costs. The jewelry will attract market premiums just as a Louis Vuitton handbag.
Partners must add value downstream, at the retail level, where De Beers dismally failed. Botswana’s future continued profitability depends on strong downstream partners. That’s where most of the profits will come from in the value chain. That’s easier said than done. De Beers joint venture with LVMH collapsed. Its Lightbox synthetic venture was a miscalculation. It’s Supplier of Choice a nightmare. Botswana should look forward and not make the same mistakes!
• Global luxury leaders: Tiffany, LVMH, Richemont. • Trusted financial brands: Warren Buffett’s jewelry companies in the U.S. • Powerful Indian conglomerates: such as Rosy Blue, led by Russell Mehta’s family, with hundreds of jewelry retail stores. Imagine those stores renamed Exclusive Botswana First Diamonds. There are more. • Synthetic Technology leaders: firms like Kira, producing 250,000 polished synthetic carats per month, and Sarine, the automation pioneer. There are many more. • Clean leadership: men like Gareth Penny, proven, empathetic, untarnished, with the ability to steer in crisis. [Disclosure: During a previous diamond crisis I had the pleasure of conducting Town Halls with Gareth. Also, in Botswana.]
These are partners that bring scale, technology, credibility, and global consumer reach.
Principles of Partnership
If a pan-African consortium is unavoidable, it must be hard-wired with OECD-grade governance: IFRS reporting, independent audit committees, anti-corruption covenants, LCIA arbitration. But preferably, avoid it. Better to partner with those who bring real marketing strength. And remember never go negative. Always stand for something. Be proud. Be honorable. Celebrate Botswana’s diamonds — don’t attack others. This is payback time. For a century, colonial powers plundered. For too long, others dictated terms. That era is over. The path forward is clear:
• $1 billion upfront loan. • Immediate Botswana control. • Smart financing and citizen shares. • No Angola, yes Namibia. • No Canadian dead weight. • Botswana diamonds as a Rolex brand. • Partners with global downstream marketing strength.
The Trump-era world will not respect weakness. It will respect Botswana’s strength, integrity, and vision. It is the destiny of the people of Botswana to seize this moment and decide their own future.
Botswana First. Forever.
*Even-Zohar is a prominent veteran diamond industry expert and analyst. This article is exclusively provided to Mmegi