Boko faces incumbency litmus test
Kabo Ramasia | Tuesday September 30, 2025 15:43
In a more shocking turn of events, the recent Malawi elections have brought in a change of government with the country’s ex-president, Peter Mutharika, defeating incumbent president Lazarus Chakwera with 56.8% of the vote against the latter’s 33%. This defeat added to the growing list of African leaders who suffered the same fate in the 2024 elections. From countries like Botswana, Senegal, Somaliland, Mauritius, to Ghana, the scenario was all the same with the modern African voter speaking with one voice. The message seemed to be loud and clear that leaders will no longer enjoy incumbency. From the above-mentioned nations, incumbents being Mokgweetsi Masisi, Macky Sall, Muse Bhi Abdi, Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth, and Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who had replaced Nana Akufo-Addo upon reaching his constitutional term limits all bit the dust. Chakwera’s fall was therefore not a surprise. He joins the list to now make it six (6) presidents in the space of less than a year. Whilst this denotes a changing trend in African politics, it has brought uncertainty to incumbents, yet it is not entirely new for incumbents to serve only one term in Africa.
Previously, it has happened in Nigeria, with President Goodluck Jonathan serving only one term from 2010-2015 before losing his re-election bid. Other presidents like John Mahama in Ghana, Joyce Banda of Malawi, and Rupiah Banda in Zambia were equally defeated in their quest for a second term. The list is endless. Across Africa, issues like corruption, abuse of state power, poverty, income inequalities, human rights abuses, and economic disparities have been major concerns for decades, with citizens often caught between election euphoria and unfulfilled promises. Generally, history records that Africa has had a generation of leaders who failed to place the interest of the people at heart and generally lacked the political will to socially transform their nations. However, this appears to have gone with the wind.
At present, African voters are slowly demanding social justice through the ballot. Boko’s test To this end, the fall of long-standing regimes has been described as a stark reminder that power has its expiry date. In Botswana, the nomination of President Advocate Duma Gideon Boko, who leads the ruling Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition, brought so much hope to a nation in despair. With the country currently experiencing the highest youth unemployment rate at 38.2% as per statistics, 17.2 % of multidimensional poverty, declining diamond revenue, growing instances of Gender-Based Violence (GBV), HIV/AIDS, the growing threat of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs), rising instances of alcohol and substance abuse, and many more Boko has indeed had a baptism of fire. Whilst detractors have begun to cast a shadow over his incumbency, Boko’s headache seems to have intensified. Amidst pending electoral pledges, the workers' union is now up in arms over salary increments, and so too are the tertiary students who are demanding an allowance increase to P2500. Additionally, the public health system is under severe strain, whilst some of his party cadres are seemingly worried by his administration’s appointments. Many have questioned the appointment of those who served in the previous regime. To his defence, D.G.B., as the man is otherwise affectionately called, has maintained that all appointments will be merit-based. Indeed, Boko faces a true litmus test. Having made history as the first opposition leader to become president, ending the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP)’s 58-year rule, it was inevitable that he had to hit the ground running.
Through it all, will he still weather the storm? Meanwhile, the nation remains at an economic crossroads. The economic downturn represents a bleak period in a nation’s history characterized by a prolonged diamond slump and slow GDP growth, even as the current government intends to move away from being monolithic to being diversified, with several sectors adding to national GDP. However, in his public addresses, Boko has reiterated that his government intends to transform the country in the next three years. With this ambitious target, the president still feels that for this to be achieved, there would have to be a shift in doing things. Consequently, he has expressed challenges with the current systems in place, which he has argued inhibit social change. Nevertheless, Boko has remained adamant that he is the Moses who will carry the people of Botswana to the promised land. Even so, as a democracy, Botswana has come of age.
Despite being labeled an economic miracle for its transformation from being a poor nation to being classified as an upper-middle income striving to be a higher-income economy, youth unemployment and generally poor living conditions largely remain a time bomb. With young people increasingly becoming impatient and various sectors demanding a change in their livelihoods, all these challenges appear to have toughened people’s stance on demanding accountability from their leaders. As with Masisi’s rise and fall, which makes for a Shakespearean tragedy of epic proportions, Boko faces insurmountable odds to be overcome. His fate will be sealed on the ability to deliver reforms beyond expectations. But true to his character, the ever-confident, charismatic leader has professed that by the time all the promises are delivered, it’s the nation that will seek him for re-election again. Meanwhile, the dragnet appears to be catching most incumbents, making it hard to predict the future. Who else is next to fall?