First seasonal forecast points to healthy rains ahead
Mbongeni Mguni | Monday September 15, 2025 13:05
The forecasts emerged this week as weather scientists from SADC finalised their annual meeting held prior to the onset of the rain season. The Southern African Regional Climate Outlook (SARCOF) meeting, held in Zambia this year, concluded on Thursday with good news for local farmers and most of the regional neighbourhood.
The meeting also included representatives from the local Department of Meteorological Services, who will synthesise the findings and release their own localised forecast later this month.
“The bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall for most of the period of October to December 2025 except the western fringes of Namibia where below normal rainfall is expected,” said Edson Nkonde, the director of Zambia’s Meteorological Department, in a statement. “The period of January to March 2026 is expected to have normal to above normal rainfall for most of the region except for the northern parts of the region, Angola, DRC, and Tanzania where normal to below normal rainfall is expected.”
According to maps shared by SARCOF, much of Botswana’s forecast of normal to above normal rainfall for the upcoming season is made with a high degree of consensus and confidence amongst weather scientists.
The data emerging from the Lusaka meeting also indicates that the north-east to south-east and southern parts of Botswana will likely experience above normal rain in November, December, and January. The weather scientists made this latter projection with a high degree of consensus and confidence.
The projection is essential for planning purposes in the country, as in recent years, farmers have been hit hard by a mid-season dry spell in January which obliterates young crops planted in November.
The period between January and February, whilst key to plant germination, has in recent years tended to suffer from little to no rainfall in most areas, particularly the South, accompanied by either heatwaves or above-normal heat.
The SARCOF data shows that Botswana should receive normal to above-normal rains in December, January, and February, then likely get normal to above-normal in January, February, and March.
The weather scientists also expect that the country’s eastern areas could receive above-normal rains between January, February, and March. Nkonde said the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were the primary drivers of the forecasts.
“The ENSO is projected to reach a weak La Niña phase during the forecast period. “Another driver affecting SADC’s regional climate, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is forecast to transition into a negative phase and later return to neutral phase towards the end of the 2025–2026 rainfall season,” he said.
Operating in recurring cycles, El Niño and La Niña are both caused by warming or cooling temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, with the more well-known El Niño associated with drought, erratic rainfall, flooding, and high temperatures in southern Africa.
For Botswana and neighbouring countries, La Niña conditions point to higher rainfall amounts, more widely spread across the summer season. La Niña can be remembered in 2019 when Gaborone recorded 244 millimetres of rain in the space of a few weeks between November and December, which was then the wettest start to the rain season in decades.
Last season’s strong rainfall and the associated bumper harvests across the country were influenced by La Niña. Whilst the phenomenon is seen as waning this season, the forecasts from Zambia indicate that it will still yield rain for the country.
The upcoming season’s projects mark rare consecutive years of bountiful rains for the country, as farmers have become accustomed to stretches of drought over the years.
Last year’s rains helped boost the country’s food security in key cereals such as maize and sorghum.
Whilst official figures of the country’s harvest from the last season have not been publicly released, this week, the Ministry of Lands and Agriculture suspended the import and export of maize, beans, sorghum, and cowpeas.
The suspension is seen as a sign that local stocks, stored and sold by the Botswana Agricultural Marketing Board, are sufficient for demand. In a follow-up statement, the ministry defended its move.
“One of the key aims in government, occasionally, restricting the importation and exportation of key grains is to protect national food security by ensuring that there is enough supply within the country,” said permanent secretary Kabelo Ebineng in a statement. “All key scheduled grains are available for sale at the BAMB.”
The BAMB is statutorily required to procure all scheduled produce from farmers for sale in the local market. Scheduled grains include maize, beans, sorghum, and cowpeas.