De Beers sees India, SE Asia as future demand drivers
Mbongeni Mguni | Tuesday August 19, 2025 14:44
De Beers, the company most responsible for the value assigned to natural diamonds and boasting the most diamond discoveries ever on Earth, has become almost preternaturally adept at forecasting where demand for the stones will come from in the future.
In fact, its very existence is based on being able to look into the future, spot trends around demographics, geology, tastes and biases well in advance, then attune itself well in advance to meet the opportunity.
De Beers forecast the rise of the importance of Gen Zs and China in diamond demand, and also correctly noted the renewed threat posed by lab-grown diamonds seven years ago, although perhaps the eventual impact may have been underestimated.
Trends or put more correctly, imperatives, such as sustainability, traceability and even blockchain-based provenance, were correctly forecast years before the broader industry and consumers caught up.
In fact, the company’s Insights Report is a must read for governments, competitors and the broader industry, carrying detailed projections and interventions.
De Beers’ CEO, Al Cook, recently shared other insights in an exclusive interview with Mmegi. Speaking as the industry endures a prolonged downturn, which he says is reminiscent of a bruising period the company endured in the 1930s, Cook said there are some bright spots of demand being seen in the near and medium term.
“The Middle East is growing strongly at the moment. We have opened up a new store in Dubai and that's an exciting growth market and we'll keep an eye on the markets across the Middle East. “And then beyond that, we actually see Southeast Asia as a real source of growth. “Countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand are places that are growing in diamond demand at the moment. “But the real story is all about India. That's the real growth market on the planet at the moment,” he told Mmegi.
India marks a full circle turn for diamonds. Historically, value was first assigned to the shiny stones in India, where alluvial diamonds were mined as far back as 6,000 years ago.
While the United States remains the major market for natural diamonds accounting for more than 50% of demand, India last year overtook China as the world’s second largest market. Cook sees even more potential in that country.
“Over the past year, China has been overtaken by India and India is enjoying double-digit growth over the last three years in terms of diamond demand. “That reflects the fact that India is growing so strongly as a country, growing so strongly as an economy. The GDP is rising; the stock markets are rising and Indians love diamonds. “You know, this was the country where diamonds were first discovered, the country where they were first worn and I think we're very fortunate that the world's fastest-growing economy has such a long, millennia-long love for diamonds. “So it's a match made in heaven. We actually see India staying as the second-biggest market in the world after the United States. And even over time, India could overtake the United States.”
Although growth in China has slowed, Cook said the Oriental giant remained important for diamonds.
“We see China taking a while to recover. I think we've seen that the growth of the Chinese economy has slowed somewhat. “The marriage rate in China has slowed somewhat. So we expect China to stay lower for somewhat longer. But it will recover in the medium term. “And we certainly are a company that's betting on the Chinese economy. We have a lot of De Beers London shops there, stores there. “So it's a country that we're betting on in the longer term,” he said.
The patterns and reconfigurations in the diamond market are interesting and always in flux. No greater disruptor has entered the industry of late than the decision by the United States administration to impose sweeping global tariffs last week.
Key diamond producing and processing centres such as Botswana, the United Arab Emirates, India, China, Israel and the European Union have all been hit, to varying degrees, by tariffs that make diamonds costlier to American buyers.
While other centres of demand such as India, the Middle East and South East Asia grow in importance, the U.S remains a critically important market and driver of value for diamonds, a fact that reverberates down the pipeline to ordinary citizens in Botswana.
There is talk in the industry around the rearrangement of traditional diamond routes, moving from areas of high tariffs to lower, but the changeability of the U.S administration’s policies complicate such plans. For instance, tariffs on India and China have been increased several times on short notice and both these countries account for the lion’s share of diamond cutting and polishing activities.
For Cook, the focus is on the continuation of discussions with partners in the U.S.
“Undoubtedly, tariffs have caused two problems; firstly, the added costs that they represent, but secondly, the uncertainty that they bring,” he told Mmegi. “So we've been working very closely with the U.S government, very closely with the Botswana government and other governments that play an important role in diamonds to advocate that there should not be a tariff on diamonds. “In the end, the United States does not and cannot produce diamonds. “So the really important thing is that we don't have a tariff on them.”
Cook added: “That's important for the American consumers and for anyone else. “I'm confident that in the longer term, natural diamonds will be exempt from U.S tariffs and we're committed to working with all parties over the next few weeks and months to get to that goal.”
In the meantime, De Beers and its producer partners such as Botswana are not sitting in their tears. The long time partners were recently in Angola where, with other African producing nations and the Natural Diamond Council, they signed a landmark agreement to jointly contribute to industry wide marketing.
Under the Luanda Accord, the signing partners agreed to contribute one percent of their revenues from diamonds to a joint marketing campaign, a historic effort that recognises the monumental challenge of boosting demand in a time of nearly unprecedented, structural uncertainty for the natural diamond business.
De Beers and the Government of Botswana, as part of their February sales agreement, also have a clause to jointly fund marketing initiatives, again in recognition of the existential threat caused by the pressures in the industry.
According to Cook, the campaign under the Luanda Accord is due to kick off in a few weeks and will be strategically designed in terms of platforms and the audience targetted.
“It's not using legacy platforms such as us in print or whatever. “It's going right into where Gen Zs are getting their information from and so it's focused on social media. “It's interesting if you look at a century of advertising. De Beers started in colour magazines which was the big thing in the 1930s. “Then we moved into movies and we had Marilyn Monroe and songs like Diamonds Are a Girl's Best Friend. “Then as television took over, we went into TV and we had the fantastic television campaigns of the 1990s, the Shadows campaigns. And now, of course, television is being replaced for a lot of Gen Zs, by social media. “So the focus of our campaigns is on social media and that's where the majority of our advertising is going to be, whether it's in the United States, India, China, or elsewhere.”
Ahead of the campaign social media commentators have been speculating on the messaging to be expected in the campaign. While some believe the natural diamond industry should hit back at the accusations levelled against it by the lab-growns, others believe the naturals should simply stick to their message of real-world good, transparency, traceability and enduring value.
A key question that will need to be answered by the upcoming campaign will have to be the “so what?” So natural diamonds benefit citizens in developing countries such as Botswana, so what? So they build hospitals, schools and others in these countries, so what?
For some in the diamond industry pipeline, the bottom line is profit. If the more expensive natural diamond sits on the shop shelf for months, while the cheaper lab-growns fly off, for some, this is the only thing that matters.
To this very point, an audience member at the recent JCK Show in Las Vegas stood up and asked why jewellers, many of them independent and equally struggling with their margins, should get behind the natural diamonds campaign, when cheaper, more popular lab growns allow them to survive.
Cook had an answer to Mmegi on the question.
“Consumers have a choice and they should always have a choice,” he said. “What's really important is that we present them with all the information to make that choice in a way that they don't regret. “What we say to our consumers is, ‘wear the diamond that is true to you’ and I hope that diamond will be a rare, natural, beautiful diamond from a wonderful country like Botswana, where the person who buys that diamond can tell the story of how that diamond has supported livelihoods. “It supported wildlife; it supported the broader environment. “I think we've got a fantastic story to tell and I think the American consumer, the European consumer, the Indian consumer is interested to know that story. They want to know the story of the diamonds. “If someone is going to wear a diamond engagement ring on their finger every day of their life, they want to be sure that that diamond represents good.”
Cook also shared his thoughts on the choice between lab-grown and the naturals.
“For very little money now, you can buy a lab-grown diamond, much cheaper than a natural diamond, but let's be clear. “The vast majority of lab-grown diamonds are made in China, and they're made in factories. “They take a few days to make and are completely different from a miracle of nature that takes a billion years to form with all the uniqueness. “So we should allow consumers to make that choice. “They'll buy the diamond that is true to them and we just need to make sure that we do a great job of telling the story of Botswana diamonds, because I can think of no better way to commemorate the most important moments in your life.”