Dangerous geopolitics of global maritime chokepoints

Solly Rakgomo | Monday August 11, 2025 12:47

This diversion adds approximately 10 to 15 days to delivery schedules and raises transportation costs by 30 to 40%. The repercussions of this logistical shift ripple across the global economy, from delayed deliveries and increased fuel consumption to surging costs of consumer goods and industrial inputs.

Businesses that depend on just-in-time delivery models now face growing pressure to secure inventory in advance, while smaller enterprises may struggle to absorb the unexpected cost surges. Further compounding the crisis are renewed threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically vital maritime chokepoints. Any disruption here, even briefly, sends shockwaves through energy markets, instantly inflating global insurance premiums and eroding confidence in maritime security. Although oil prices may stabilise over time following initial spikes, the cumulative impact of sustained risk and uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on global economic performance. Persistent geopolitical volatility erodes investor confidence, triggers shift in trade routes, and prompts nations to reevaluate energy security strategies and supply chain resilience. There is no doubt that geopolitical upheavals are profoundly reshaping global maritime routes.

These disruptions are prompting a reconfiguration of international trade dynamics and raising urgent questions about the robustness of global supply chains. According to data from Fluent Cargo, transport capacity along the Asia-Europe corridor plunged by 33% between 2023 and 2024. This shift signals more than a temporary adjustment; it reflects a fundamental transformation in how goods circulate the world. Amid this changing landscape, new trade corridors like the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC) and the India–Turkey–Romania (ITR) route are gaining traction. These projects are not merely logistical alternatives; they represent deliberate strategic moves aimed at reshaping global influence and counterbalancing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Their development underscores a growing recognition that the battlefield of geopolitical rivalry extends far beyond national borders deep into the arteries of global trade and logistics.

Whether it’s the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, the intensifying instability across the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, or the growing competition between China and the United States, the cumulative effect is the emergence of a new geopolitical and commercial world order. Trade flows are becoming increasingly entangled with political agendas, transforming infrastructure into instruments of power and influence.

Energy shock and

Europe’s diversification driveThe outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war marked a decisive turning point in Europe’s pursuit of energy autonomy. In response to the upheaval, European nations launched an urgent and comprehensive effort to diversify their gas supplies and reduce dependence on Russian energy. This shift triggered a wave of infrastructure development, particularly around LNG regasification facilities, enabling ports across the continent to receive and process LNG from new sources. To meet immediate demand, Europe ramped up imports of high-priced LNG from the United States, while still maintaining a significant volume of LNG inflows from Russia. Simultaneously, it forged long-term energy partnerships with key exporters such as Qatar, Norway, and countries in North Africa, signalling a broader reconfiguration of its energy alliances. This strategic reorientation not only reshaped Europe’s supply chains but also underscored the geopolitical weight of energy policy in an increasingly volatile world.

The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint

and the Red Sea have global implicationsTensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are inextricably linked to global energy security. As one of the most critical maritime corridors on the planet, the strait serves as the gateway for nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, and nearly all of Qatar’s LNG exports pass through this narrow waterway. Its geographic location places it under the de facto influence of Iran, which positions Tehran as a silent yet crucial actor in the stability of global energy flows.

Frequent maritime incidents ranging from hostile naval encounters to tanker attacks in the Red Sea intensify market uncertainty, trigger fluctuations in oil prices, and inflate shipping and insurance costs. These episodes expose the vulnerability of key transport arteries and heighten geopolitical risk, not only for regional actors but for the entire global economy. In this volatile context, Iran emerges as an invisible hand and its strategic leverage is unmistakable. By exerting indirect pressure, Iran reinforces its geopolitical relevance without the need for overt confrontation.

The South China Sea is the

epicentre of US–China strategic RivalryThe South China Sea has become one of the world’s most contested maritime corridors not only for its vast reserves of oil and gas, but for its indispensable role in global trade. This region serves as a vital conduit for energy flows to and from Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, making it a cornerstone of international energy security and commercial navigation. The People’s Republic of China has moved decisively to assert control over this maritime zone through the construction of artificial islands and the militarisation of disputed territories, particularly around the Spratly and Paracel Islands. These efforts reflect a broader ambition to reshape established maritime boundaries and challenge international norms regarding sovereignty at sea. In direct response, the United States has reinforced its naval presence in the region, invoking the principle of freedom of navigation. This has involved expanded military operations and joint exercises with Indo-Pacific allies, signaling Washington’s intent to push back against unilateral territorial claims and preserve open sea lanes. As tensions escalate, the South China Sea has evolved into a high-stakes theater of global power competition. The rivalry between the US and China in this space carries profound implications, not just for regional maritime governance, but for the stability of global energy markets, international trade routes, and the future of the rules-based international order.

In summation, one can safely argue that today’s global energy transformation is unfolding not in a vacuum, but within a charged arena shaped by maritime chokepoints, strategic dependencies, and overlapping spheres of geopolitical influence. Rather than fostering neutrality or resilience, the current system remains bound to the same power asymmetries and historical fault lines that have long governed access to resources.

Without a concerted recalibration of the global balance, rooted in equitable access, mutual trust, and shared governance, energy security will continue to be held hostage by the very dynamics it seeks to transcend. As we approach the pivotal decade of 2030, the question is no longer whether institutional or military adjustments will occur, but whether they will generate a sustainable rebalancing of geopolitical power. Establishing a resilient and equitable global energy framework hinges on major powers reaching explicit or tacit alignment; absent such consensus, energy sovereignty claims risk remaining aspirational and structurally unanchored. In today’s geopolitical landscape, the true lifelines of power are no longer confined to underground reserves, they stretch across maritime corridors, where strategic ambition, national sovereignty, and global stability intersect. The struggle to command energy transit routes rivals the battle over the resources.