BDP could scrape through

Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Tuesday October 29, 2024 09:13

This time, the opposition has launched intense campaigns, while the BDP continues relying on its historical platforms. The opposition has also opened room for the BDP through its fragmentation, especially the main opposition parties, namely, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP).

This situation aligns with the path dependency theory, which suggests that established political entities tend to benefit from their historical advantages, making it challenging for newcomers to gain ground. The BDP joins the likes of the Congo’s People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), which has wielded power for 58 years, and boasts a deep-rooted presence in government.

Currently, the BDP’s main target is 44 of the 61 constituencies, though an observation by Mmegi indicates that it could secure between 37 and 40 of those seats. Consequently, with its historical momentum and the limping opposition, the BDP’s path to victory appears not only likely but increasingly evident.

Even if the BDP manages to secure victory in the upcoming polls, it may not replicate the success of the 2019 General Election, where it garnered a popular vote of 53%. Instead, a decline reminiscent of the 2014 elections, when the party achieved only 47% of the vote, seems plausible. The BDP’s popular vote looks like this; 1965 it was 80%, 1969 (68%), 1974 (77%), 1979 (75%), 1984 (64%), 1989 (65%), 1994 (55%), 1999 (57%), 2004 (52%), 2009 (53%), 2014 (47%) and 2019 (53%).

This potential setback follows a period in which President Mokgweetsi Masisi revitalised the party by championing its core ideals of therisanyo.

This initiative fostered engagement with civil society, the labour movement, and political leaders across the spectrum, ultimately improving the BDP’s image. However, the 2019 polls, in which the BDP won all the Gaborone constituencies, may not be replicated this time.

Additionally, the ongoing tensions between former president Ian Khama and President Masisi, which previously influenced voter sentiment, may not hold the same weight in the current political climate. Consequently, the BDP is likely to face significant challenges in key areas, potentially losing ground to opposition parties. Just as in the 2014 polls, the BDP will confront strong competition, indicating a more complex electoral landscape ahead.

For instance, the BDP is likely to lose some constituencies in Gaborone to the opposition parties. However, in the central district, the BDP may reclaim seats it lost in the 2019 General Election. This shift can be attributed to changing political dynamics.

What might contribute to their potential success? Although Batswana express a desire for a change of political power, history indicates a general reluctance towards change. Additionally, the BDP maintains a strong presence in remote areas. It is important to acknowledge that some Batswana are hesitant to support opposition parties associated with the former president, as they fear he may seek to regain control if elected.

Furthermore, incumbents typically find it challenging to lose power. The BDP’s strongholds are firmly established, providing them with a significant advantage over their competitors.

The BDP believes that during COVID-19 vaccination and relief, over 64% of the target population was vaccinated against COVID-19. Additionally, they provided financial relief and support to sectors impacted by the pandemic. Only four African nations managed to meet the World Health Organisations’ (WHO) vaccination target of 40%. The response to COVID-19, which was an emergency, was a testament to the solid health infrastructure the BDP government has built over the years.

Disbursing P162 million to medium and large companies, P22.635 million to SMMEs, and P47.096 million as P1, 000 grants to the informal sector, this multi-pronged effort was somewhat a testament to the BDP’s commitment to inclusivity and shared prosperity.

As part of the party manifesto, the mining and mineral beneficiation, the party had secured a historic partnership with De Beers, increasing Botswana’s share of rough diamonds. The collaboration also focuses on skills development and value chains. Creative industry and youth empowerment: Initiatives such as the high-performance sports centre, the National Arts Council of Botswana, and the Youth Development Fund (YDF) were launched. They disbursed P80 million through the YDF in the 2021/2022 financial year creating 1, 320 for young people.

Infrastructure development: The BDP invested in projects like the Samora Machel Museum, Kazungula and Mohembo bridges, Village Road Infrastructure and Special Economic Zones. The iconic Mohembo Bridge is already creating tourism potential for the Shakawe enclave. It is already a must-visit place and will create further opportunities for wildlife-based tourism.

It will also have the effect of making Shakawe a transport hub.

Revitalising Morupule A and B: Local power source Morupule A power station’s successful refurbishment in 2019 secured 100MW of local generation capacity, bolstering our national electricity supply. Expansion of the power grid to the Northwest region unlocked mining investments and reduced dependency on neighbouring countries for power. Village electrification completion of the 116-village electrification project has taken us to 80.2% of gazetted villages. 44 new villages were electrified, with network extensions in 72 villages, very much in line with reaching every corner of the nation.

Economic growth and citizen empowerment: Import restrictions, revitalisation of the SPEDU region, granting Botswana Oil a 100% fuel import mandate, and establishing the Co-operative CEDA Fund contributed to economic growth. In November 2021, they launched the Co-operative CEDA Fund, aiming to enhance financing access for co-operatives and foster their growth and sustainability. They also have implemented strategic import restrictions on select goods, nurturing local industries and stimulating sectoral growth, ensuring long-term sustainability.

Strengthening local industries: Import restrictions by revitalising the SPEDU region, they have welcomed 34 operational companies and created 2,482. The citrus project creates a great opportunity for the revitalization of Selebi-Phikwe the first harvest has been celebrated and set for export yet there are still opportunities in the value chain. This has made some people praise the party.

Water: The BDP has done well in most water projects as it delivered and continues to do that. Even if some villages are still experiencing water challenges, it is not the same as before. In 2019, it had made a promise to Batswana that it would deliver.

What may make it lose?Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate, which is alarmingly high at 27.1 as at March, 2024, remains a significant issue for the BDP and could potentially lead to its downfall. This situation arises from the fact that many individuals have lost their jobs, and a considerable number of graduates remain unemployed, fueling their frustration. The youth unemployment rate is 38.2% as at March 2024. These are youth who are mostly on social media and who vowing to vote out the BDP.

Furthermore, some speculate that conditions may worsen after the elections, particularly since diamond sales in the country are struggling.

Primary electionsRegarding the primary elections, the BDP conducted its party primaries late, which left little healing time for its members. As a result, many individuals felt disillusioned, leading some to leave the party while others chose to run as independent candidates. Additionally, some members are actively campaigning against the BDP. The BDP internal fights are a serious threat to it.

Land It remains a contentious issue for the party. Despite the party reaching its target of 100,000 plot allocations, many Batswana feel that significant work remains, as numerous individuals have yet to receive land. They point out that in some areas, there are long waiting lists, while in others, it has been years since any land was allocated.

State of roadsThe condition of the roads is a significant concern, as many are in poor shape and contribute to accidents that claim lives. Most roads have reached the end of their lifespan. Although the government has recently initiated some ground-breaking projects, Batswana believe that addressing this issue has taken too long. One road of particular concern is the A1, which is heavily used. Just over the holidays, the country recorded numerous incidents related to this situation.

Early this year police revealed that about 400 people are killed annually on Botswana’s roads. The major hot spots of car accidents in the country include A1, A3 and A2. Maintenance of some roads is also a concern.

ParliamentBatswana are concerned about the lack of independence in Parliament, which they believe results in weak legislation. Many citizens are calling for the government to introduce specific qualifications for Members of Parliament. Additionally, they feel that some laws appear to target individuals rather than address the broader needs of the nation. This perception leads them to believe that such laws set a troubling precedent, as future parties may simply repeal them upon gaining power, resulting in wasted resources during implementation.

Financial crisisThe country’s tightening budget has led to financial distress, forcing the government to suspend certain spending, which has left many Batswana dissatisfied. Consequently, some citizens fear that the financial situation may worsen, potentially working against the BDP in the upcoming election.